Yesterday’s Weather
Clouds and some storms developed along the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico northward to Cochise County in southeast Arizona. Very dry air in Arizona mixed into the developing storms with only some virga as the result. Deeper convection was southeast of Hermosillo. Eastern New Mexico had another round of storms.
Analysis
250 mb flow is westerly across the state with winds of 50 knots. This flow has increased in New Mexico and turns anticyclonic becoming northwest in west Texas. A high pressure ridge remains off the west coast of the Baja peninsula and has been moved a little farther south.
At 500 mb, the ridge axis shifted a little north with a center near Nogales this morning resulting in easterly flow in northern Mexico and the westerlies from Phoenix northward. 700 mb flow is similar, but the atmosphere remains dry except over eastern New Mexico. At 850 mb, tropical moisture has pushed northward to Guaymas from now extinct tropical storm Dalila. Gulf moisture remains in west Texas and eastern Mexico. No significant moisture is over Arizona and even western New Mexico has dried out.
Today
Convection will develop in the Sierra Madre’s of Mexico into far eastern Arizona similar to yesterday and mix with dry air from the desert regions with only some virga expected again. Eastern New Mexico will also see another round of afternoon thunderstorms. CAPE forecast for this afternoon shows the activity in eastern New Mexico but little or no CAPE elsewhere. Still expecting some CAPE over the mountains of Cochise county. Some microburst activity in southeast New Mexico with 35 kt wind gusts as shown in the forecast map below.
Tomorrow
The dry air spreads eastward across New Mexico so convection will be suppressed in both states.
Outlook to late next week
Moisture will rebound into eastern New Mexico on Wednesday making for a little more activity. Over Arizona…no significant activity is expected throughout the week. Some moisture may move across eastern Arizona and New Mexico related to the monsoon flow over the weekend.
Discussion written by Pat Holbrook