{"id":5247,"date":"2026-09-14T18:02:56","date_gmt":"2026-09-14T18:02:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=5247"},"modified":"2026-09-14T18:03:35","modified_gmt":"2026-09-14T18:03:35","slug":"september-14th-2026-scattered-showers-and-thunderstorms-likely-in-se-arizona-today-another-round-of-showers-overnight-in-similar-areas-extending-further-west-in-pima-and-pinal-counties","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=5247","title":{"rendered":"September 14th, 2026: Scattered showers and thunderstorms likely in SE Arizona\u00a0today; another round of showers\u00a0overnight in similar areas extending further west in Pima and Pinal counties"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A surge of tropical moisture is streaming north from Mexico into Arizona and on to the Great Plains. High surface dewpoints and precipitable water are widespread across eastern Arizona into New Mexico. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forecast soundings indicate that although there is potential energy for storms, warm air aloft will limit thunderstorm development in much of western and central Arizona. The most significant storm activity is expected in SE Arizona this afternoon and overnight into Wednesday in central and southeast Arizona. Isolated storms are predicted during the day on Tuesday, with another overnight pulse of activity into Wednesday morning. Rainfall and lingering clouds are expected to suppress further storm development Wednesday afternoon. Long-range forecasts predict a few more days of active weather before storm activity diminishes by the weekend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The southwest part of Arizona\u00a0had little thunderstorm activity while\u00a0northern Arizona and most of New Mexico\u00a0had scattered thunderstorms. The heaviest rain fell in\u00a0the western portion of the Mogollon Rim north to the Grand Canyon, southeast Arizona, and across central New Mexico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"810\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1272 \/ 810;\" width=\"1272\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/20260914-1621-08.8263865.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery overlaid with mosaic radar and GLM lightning from September 13th from12 pm to 4 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) are shown below.\u00a0The forecast underestimated the areal coverage of light precipitation and, due to the synoptic circulation, missed some of the mountains where training was occurring.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"335\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-55-1024x335.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5250\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-55-1024x335.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-55-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-55-768x251.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-55-1536x503.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-55.png 1727w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) for September 13th.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Isolated showers and thunderstorms were in eastern Pima County yesterday afternoon and again this morning. In the Phoenix area, light showers occurred in San Tan Valley and north of Florence. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"846\" height=\"807\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-56.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5251\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-56.png 846w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-56-300x286.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-56-768x733.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 846px) 100vw, 846px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">24-hour precipitation totals from Pima County Regional Flood Control District gauges, <a href=\"https:\/\/alertmap.rfcd.pima.gov\/gmap\/gmap.html\">Alert Map<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The eastern tropical Pacific is relatively quiet, with only tropical storm Norbert and a depression in the eastern Pacific basin.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"622\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-57-1024x622.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5252\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-57-1024x622.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-57-300x182.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-57-768x467.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-57.png 1032w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">National Hurricane Center <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/\">outlook<\/a> for the Pacific basin<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Moisture is flowing from the tropics northward into Arizona (black arrow), then northeast into the Great Plains; a broad trough and associated jet stream are drawing it north (light blue arrow). Several Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs (TUTT) are located from west of the Baja Spur east to south of Big Bend, TX, then to the Gulf of Mexico.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"547\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-093048-1024x547.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5253\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-093048-1024x547.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-093048-300x160.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-093048-768x411.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-093048.png 1227w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 upper-level water vapor image, September 14th at 8 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The visible satellite image overlaid with mosaic radar images from 8:30 am this morning shows showers and thunderstorms in eastern Arizona and western and northern New Mexico; the precipitation is light. The radar indicates\u00a0showers in the northern Gulf of California are due to ducting of the radar beam, giving a false impression of precipitation where none exists.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"653\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-58-1024x653.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5255\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-58-1024x653.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-58-300x191.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-58-768x489.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-58.png 1282w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery from September 14th at 8:30 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Surface dewpoint temperatures from 7 am show it&#8217;s quite moist across the two-state region today, with 60\u00b0 F dewpoint temperatures over the southern half of the region and 50\u00b0F dewpoint temperatures elsewhere.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"565\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-093850-1024x565.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5256\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-093850-1024x565.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-093850-300x165.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-093850-768x423.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-093850.png 1500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Surface weather station observations for Arizona and New Mexico at 7:00 am, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/wrh\/hazards?&amp;zoom=8&amp;scroll_zoom=false&amp;center=32.656025851099066,-110.76888628244107&amp;boundaries=false,true,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&amp;tab=observation&amp;hazard=true&amp;hazard_type=all&amp;hazard_opacity=80&amp;obs=true&amp;obs_type=weather&amp;elements=temp,wind,gust&amp;temp_filter=-80,130&amp;gust_filter=0,150&amp;rh_filter=0,100&amp;elev_filter=-300,14000&amp;precip_filter=0.01,30&amp;obs_popup=false&amp;obs_density=60&amp;obs_provider=ALL\">NWS<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z initialization (left) and observed (right) sounding for Phoenix at 5 am are below.\u00a0The observed sounding has 3 mm\u00a0more precipitable water than the initialization sounding.\u00a0The satellite animation of yesterday&#8217;s activity (shown first) shows a strong west-to-east gradient in the low-level moisture field, with less cloud\/moisture in southwest Arizona than farther east.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-095315-1024x576.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5257\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-095315-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-095315-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-095315-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-095315.png 1409w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z (left) initialization and observed sounding (right) at Phoenix for 5 am this morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 250mb,\u00a0the subtropical ridge is near the boot heel of New Mexico with two low-pressure systems on either side: one southwest of Laredo and one west of the spur of the Baja Peninsula. The polar jet extends from northern California into Wyoming, with a shortwave trough from south-central Idaho to Las Vegas and Los Angeles.\u00a0The flow between the ridge and shortwave trough is pulling monsoon moisture northward.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"841\" height=\"847\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-100458.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5259\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9929078014184397;width:582px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-100458.png 841w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-100458-298x300.png 298w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-100458-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-100458-768x773.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 841px) 100vw, 841px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 500mb, the jet flows across central California into southern Utah and then to southeast Wyoming.\u00a0The same shortwave trough at 250mb is just a little further east, from southeast Idaho to northwest Arizona. Warmer air at 500mb is over western Arizona, which will inhibit thunderstorm activity, while the eastern half of Arizona still has colder air aloft.\u00a0Once the shortwave passes by today, another trough will drop into northern Arizona by Wednesday, bringing cold air to 500 mb by mid-week.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"847\" height=\"857\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-59.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5260\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9883321657719353;width:586px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-59.png 847w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-59-296x300.png 296w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-59-768x777.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 847px) 100vw, 847px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 700mb, two moisture flows are entering Arizona today, with the strongest across eastern Arizona into southwest New Mexico.\u00a0The second, weaker flow\u00a0is from the Gulf of California northward into southern Utah. Very dry air\u00a0is in California, but this is about as far east as it will get due to the approaching West Coast trough.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"852\" height=\"854\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-60-edited.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5262\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9953196135435777;width:604px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-60-edited.png 852w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-60-edited-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-60-edited-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-60-edited-768x770.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 852px) 100vw, 852px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Below are four forecast soundings at the time of peak thunderstorm development in each location: Phoenix 4:30 pm (top, left), Gila Bend 4:30 pm (top, right), Tucson 3:30 pm (bottom, left), and Nogales 1 pm (bottom, right). The Gila Bend sounding has more Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) than Phoenix; however, neither sounding will produce thunderstorms because the warm air between 700 and 500mb will stop air from rising past that level.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Nogales sounding has more CAPE than Tucson. Storms will move north from Santa Cruz County,\u00a0then northeast as they move into Pima County.\u00a0The question is how far west the storms will form because they won&#8217;t be able to push west using outflows due to southwesterly winds throughout the vertical profile.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"573\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-102117-1024x573.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5263\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-102117-1024x573.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-102117-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-102117-768x430.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-102117.png 1415w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast soundings for Phoenix (left) and Gila Bend at 4:30 pm (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"572\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-102117-1-1024x572.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5264\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-102117-1-1024x572.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-102117-1-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-102117-1-768x429.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-14-102117-1.png 1418w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast soundings for Tucson at 3:30 pm (left) and Nogales at 1 pm (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 12Z HRRR-UA WRF keeps storms mainly to the east of Tucson\u00a0this afternoon, and the 15Z forecast is even further east in its prediction of storm location. What remains, though, is that the CAPE indicated on the sounding is ready to be tapped by the shortwave to the north. Overnight,\u00a0showers and thunderstorms develop\u00a0in Santa Cruz County. Storms are predicted to move or develop north into Pima, Pinal, and Maricopa counties.\u00a0\u00a0The precipitation should be light. This activity may lower chances of storms developing Tuesday afternoon in these areas.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"752\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1134 \/ 752;\" width=\"1134\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/20260914-1737-33.6008468.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF simulated radar reflectivity 12Z forecast from 2:30 pm to 10 am tomorrow.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Only isolated storms are expected\u00a0in southern Arizona on Tuesday afternoon, with activity focused in northeast Arizona and central New Mexico.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"678\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-61-1024x678.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5268\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-61-1024x678.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-61-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-61-768x508.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-61.png 1127w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF simulated radar reflectivity 12Z forecast for 5 pm Tuesday.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Overnight Tuesday to Wednesday is another peak in thunderstorm development across central and southeast Arizona. These storms will produce heavier rain totals than Monday to Tuesday night.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"333\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-62-1024x333.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5270\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-62-1024x333.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-62-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-62-768x250.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-62-1536x500.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-62.png 1736w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z total precipitation forecast 24-hour accumulation (left) and 48-hour (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wednesday morning,\u00a0storms form in southern and central Arizona, which will limit\u00a0 afternoon storm development\u00a0in\u00a0these areas due to the\u00a0rain-cooled air and remnant clouds<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"676\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-63-1024x676.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5272\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-63-1024x676.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-63-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-63-768x507.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-63.png 1132w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity for Wednesday at 8 am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Long-range global forecast ensembles show a few more days of active weather, then the storms will be winding down by the weekend.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"786\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-64-1024x786.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5273\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-64-1024x786.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-64-300x230.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-64-768x589.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-64.png 1117w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble forecasts of 2-meter temperature (top) and 3-hour accumulated precipitation (bottom), NCAR.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Discussion written by Pat Holbrook and Patrick Bunn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary A surge of tropical moisture is streaming north from Mexico into Arizona and on to the Great Plains. High surface dewpoints and precipitable water are widespread across eastern Arizona into New Mexico. Forecast soundings indicate that although there is potential energy for storms, warm air aloft will limit thunderstorm development in much of western &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[8],"class_list":["post-5247","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-8"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5247","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5247"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5247\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5275,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5247\/revisions\/5275"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5247"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5247"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5247"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}