{"id":5215,"date":"2026-09-11T17:50:16","date_gmt":"2026-09-11T17:50:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=5215"},"modified":"2026-09-11T17:50:16","modified_gmt":"2026-09-11T17:50:16","slug":"september-11th-2026-increased-activity-will-bring-storms-to-tucson-with-wind-gusts-up-to-45-mph-and-locally-heavy-rain-near-the-mountains-phoenix-will-get-lighter-rain-along-with-blowing-dust-in","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=5215","title":{"rendered":"September 11th, 2026: Increased activity will bring storms to Tucson, with wind gusts up to 45 mph and locally heavy rain near the mountains; Phoenix will get lighter rain, along with blowing dust, in the evening.\u00a0Saturday will only see isolated mountain storms"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Currently, only Tropical Storm Norbert remains active in the East Pacific, but another system is forecast to develop soon. A surge of moisture from the Gulf of California has brought higher dewpoints to southern Arizona. Thunderstorms will develop in southeastern Arizona and the Mogollon Rim by the late afternoon and create outflows moving from Tucson to Phoenix and downslope from the Rim. Storms will continue to develop along this outflow boundary as it moves slowly northwest. The associated showers and thunderstorms could bring strong winds, heavy rain, and localized dust. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Most precipitation is forecast to fall today, with drier conditions expected across southern Arizona on Saturday except for isolated mountain storms. By Sunday, thunderstorm activity could increase in eastern Arizona and northern New Mexico, but we&#8217;ll need to reassess as forecasts evolve. Next week, monsoon moisture will linger nearby, but widespread storms are unlikely unless a trough moves through the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The visible satellite animation shows that yesterday afternoon, isolated showers and thunderstorms occurred across southern New Mexico, the White Mountains, and south of Sasabe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"816\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1256 \/ 816;\" width=\"1256\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/20260911-1539-12.5132716.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery overlaid with GLM lightning from September 10th from12 pm to 7:50 pm, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The thunderstorms south of Sasabe became very intense into the evening, as seen on the infrared satellite image, and were north of a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) farther south in Mexico. The thunderstorms reflect the higher precipitable water available in these areas.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"937\" height=\"827\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-45.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5219\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-45.png 937w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-45-300x265.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-45-768x678.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 937px) 100vw, 937px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 infrared satellite imagery from September 10th at 5:30 pm, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) are shown below.\u00a0The forecast was good\u00a0in both Arizona and New Mexico, but underestimated precipitation south\u00a0of the border where observations are sparse.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"334\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-46-1024x334.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5221\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-46-1024x334.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-46-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-46-768x251.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-46-1536x501.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-46.png 1737w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) for September 10th.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Only Tropical Storm Norbert is still active in the East Pacific, but another system will likely form before the weekend\u00a0is over.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"618\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-47-1024x618.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5223\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-47-1024x618.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-47-300x181.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-47-768x463.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-47.png 1031w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">National Hurricane Center <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/\">outlook<\/a> for the Pacific basin<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The jet stream\u00a0is moving from northern California across the Rocky Mountains, then diving southeast\u00a0into north central Texas. Moisture is over AZ\/NM and in Mexico circling clockwise around the subtropical high pressure that\u2019s centered in Sonora on the inland coast of the Gulf of California. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"588\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-085535-1024x588.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5224\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-085535-1024x588.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-085535-300x172.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-085535-768x441.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-085535.png 1162w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 upper-level water vapor image September 11th at 8 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 8:30 am visible satellite image overlaid with\u00a0mosaic radar images shows showers in northern Arizona and southern Utah. To the south, showers are east and south of\u00a0Puerto Pe\u00f1asco.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"667\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-48-1024x667.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-48-1024x667.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-48-300x196.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-48-768x501.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-48.png 1252w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery from September 11th at 8:30 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A gulf surge began yesterday morning in a layer within 1000 feet of the surface, strengthened overnight, and now has a vertical\u00a0depth of 1km (3,000 feet) and 25 mph winds.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"731\" height=\"780\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-49.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5227\" style=\"width:533px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-49.png 731w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-49-281x300.png 281w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 731px) 100vw, 731px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile from Yuma radar KYUM 6:54 am to 8:22 am <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Southern Arizona has 60\u00b0F dewpoint temperatures this morning thanks to the gulf surge.\u00a0Northeast Arizona and northern Mexico remain dry.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"568\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-091234-1024x568.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5229\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-091234-1024x568.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-091234-300x166.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-091234-768x426.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-091234.png 1492w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Surface weather station observations for Arizona and New Mexico at 7:00 am, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/wrh\/hazards?&amp;zoom=8&amp;scroll_zoom=false&amp;center=32.656025851099066,-110.76888628244107&amp;boundaries=false,true,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&amp;tab=observation&amp;hazard=true&amp;hazard_type=all&amp;hazard_opacity=80&amp;obs=true&amp;obs_type=weather&amp;elements=temp,wind,gust&amp;temp_filter=-80,130&amp;gust_filter=0,150&amp;rh_filter=0,100&amp;elev_filter=-300,14000&amp;precip_filter=0.01,30&amp;obs_popup=false&amp;obs_density=60&amp;obs_provider=ALL\">NWS<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z initialization (left) and observed (right) sounding for Phoenix at 5 am are below. There\u2019s not much difference between the initialization and observed soundings this morning, as both show the increase in precipitable water from the gulf surge, and although the subsidence layer near 480mb is better defined on the observed sounding, it can be implied to be there on the model initialization. The subsidence layer is not a cap, as it will be easily overcome if the convective temperature is reached.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"575\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-090629-1024x575.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5228\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-090629-1024x575.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-090629-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-090629-768x431.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-090629.png 1410w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z (left) initialization and observed sounding (right) at Phoenix for 5 am this morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 250mb, the jet stream\u00a0moves\u00a0west to east across southern Oregon and Utah and then bends southward into the Great Plains, being pulled southward by the short-wave trough in Oklahoma. The ridge center was over far northwest Mexico.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"847\" height=\"851\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-092811.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5230\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9952999627555135;width:588px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-092811.png 847w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-092811-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-092811-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-092811-768x772.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 847px) 100vw, 847px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The high-pressure ridge is over southern Arizona at 500 mb. The jet and short-wave trough are just a little south of their\u00a0250 mb positions.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"852\" height=\"852\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-094203.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5231\" style=\"width:600px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-094203.png 852w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-094203-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-094203-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-094203-768x768.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 852px) 100vw, 852px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 700mb, dry air across northern Arizona has shifted east, replaced by moist air from the gulf surge in northwest Arizona. The subtropical high pressure is over southern Arizona, but winds are light on the south side of the ridge axis.\u00a0An easterly wave is south of Arizona and was probably associated\u00a0with the MCS last night. Another short-wave\u00a0trough across southeast California and southern Nevada is also helping pull the\u00a0surge moisture northward.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"852\" height=\"857\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-094531.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5232\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.994161255900651;width:608px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-094531.png 852w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-094531-298x300.png 298w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-094531-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-094531-768x773.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 852px) 100vw, 852px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The forecast soundings for Phoenix at 11 pm (left)\u00a0and Tucson at 5:30 pm (right) are shown below. For Tucson, the sounding shows storms moving off the mountains after 5 pm with 40 to 45 mph wind gusts. Thunderstorms that form in the Tucson area\u00a0will propagate towards Phoenix along an outflow boundary late in the evening, initiating additional thunderstorms.\u00a0Storms in the Phoenix area will move east as upper-level winds come from the west.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"570\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-094736-1024x570.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5234\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-094736-1024x570.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-094736-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-094736-768x428.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-11-094736.png 1418w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast soundings for Phoenix at 11 pm (left) and Tucson at 5:30 pm (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 15Z HRRR-UA WRF simulated radar reflectivity and wind gusts are below. The storm&#8217;s intensity may be underestimated in the forecast because the higher dewpoint temperatures from the gulf surge may not be well represented yet.\u00a0Along with wind gusts, there is potential for local heavy rain as thunderstorms move slowly northwest along the outflow boundary. Storms could move as far north as the Phoenix metro area and arrive after 10 pm, with blowing dust, and travel as far west as Buckeye and Wickenburg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"566\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1732 \/ 566;\" width=\"1732\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/20260911-1715-53.4335174.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF simulated radar reflectivity 12Z forecast from 2 pm to 4 am tomorrow.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On Saturday, most of southern Arizona will be dry, with only isolated mountain storms across eastern Arizona and New Mexico.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"676\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-50-1024x676.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5237\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-50-1024x676.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-50-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-50-768x507.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-50.png 1132w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF simulated radar reflectivity 12Z forecast for 3 pm tomorrow.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 24- and 48-hour total precipitation forecasts from the 12Z HRRR-UA WRF\u00a0show most precipitation will fall today, with only minor additional amounts on Saturday.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"332\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-51-1024x332.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5239\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-51-1024x332.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-51-300x97.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-51-768x249.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-51-1536x498.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-51.png 1732w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z total precipitation forecast 24-hour accumulation (left) and 48-hour (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 15Z HRRR-UA WRF total precipitation\u00a0through to 5 am tomorrow\u00a0is below and seems to have a better estimate\u00a0of the precipitation northeast of Phoenix and in the Nogales area. Note that Phoenix metro on either the 12Z or 15Z forecast only gets spotty precipitation, less than a quarter inch.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"678\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-52-1024x678.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5240\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-52-1024x678.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-52-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-52-768x509.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-52.png 1135w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 15Z forecast total precipitation accumulation through tomorrow morning at 5 am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thunderstorm coverage will increase\u00a0across eastern Arizona and northern New Mexico on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"680\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-53-1024x680.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5241\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-53-1024x680.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-53-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-53-768x510.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-53.png 1131w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity for Sunday at 5 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Next week, monsoon moisture will remain nearby, and any trough crossing Arizona could trigger more widespread storms. However, a low-grade monsoon scenario remains most likely next week, given this outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"798\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-54-1024x798.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5243\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-54-1024x798.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-54-300x234.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-54-768x599.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-54.png 1117w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble forecasts of 2-meter temperature (top) and 3-hour accumulated precipitation (bottom), NCAR.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Discussion written by Pat Holbrook and Patrick Bunn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary Currently, only Tropical Storm Norbert remains active in the East Pacific, but another system is forecast to develop soon. A surge of moisture from the Gulf of California has brought higher dewpoints to southern Arizona. Thunderstorms will develop in southeastern Arizona and the Mogollon Rim by the late afternoon and create outflows moving from &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[8],"class_list":["post-5215","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-8"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5215","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5215"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5215\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5246,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5215\/revisions\/5246"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5215"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5215"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5215"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}