{"id":5053,"date":"2026-09-02T17:55:07","date_gmt":"2026-09-02T17:55:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=5053"},"modified":"2026-09-02T17:55:07","modified_gmt":"2026-09-02T17:55:07","slug":"september-2nd-2026-scattered-thunderstorms-in-southeast-arizona-this-afternoon-with-heavy-rain-possible-from-an-mcs-from-mexico-thursday-morning-phoenix-will-be-dry-today-but-storms-may","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=5053","title":{"rendered":"September 2nd, 2026: Scattered thunderstorms in southeast Arizona this afternoon, with heavy rain possible from an MCS from Mexico Thursday morning. Phoenix will be dry\u00a0today, but\u00a0storms may develop on\u00a0Friday morning."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The tropics remain active with two hurricanes and one tropical storm in the Pacific. The furthest east, Tropical Storm Marie, is expected to become a hurricane as it moves northwest over the Pacific. Marie will stay west of the coast and not directly affect Arizona. However, its circulation could increase moisture in parts of Arizona, supporting thunderstorm development. Convergence of the passing trough\/jet stream and monsoon moisture is providing favorable conditions for thunderstorm development in southern Arizona. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Today, thunderstorms are possible in southern Arizona, especially around Nogales and Tucson, though no severe weather is expected. A Mesoscale Convective System may bring heavy rain to southern Arizona early Thursday morning, with varying rain totals in the Tucson metro from 0.5&#8243; to more than 1&#8243; at higher elevations. Continued storm activity is expected into the weekend, although storms may become more isolated next week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The visible satellite overlaid with mosaic radar shows isolated thunderstorms in Arizona and the western half of New Mexico. Thunderstorms were more concentrated in eastern New Mexico, moving off the mountains and almost reaching\u00a0the Texas border before dissipating around 9 pm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"804\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1248 \/ 804;\" width=\"1248\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/20260902-1603-44.0384354.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery overlaid with mosaic radar reflectivity from September 1st from 12 pm to 11 pm, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) are shown below.\u00a0Overall, a good forecast, though slightly light on precipitation associated with mountain thunderstorms.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"336\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-1024x336.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5061\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-1024x336.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-300x99.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-768x252.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-1536x505.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image.png 1735w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) for September 1st.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The tropics are still active with two hurricanes and a tropical storm. Tropical Storm Marie will become a hurricane later today.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"615\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-1-1024x615.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5062\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-1-1024x615.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-1-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-1-768x461.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-1.png 1036w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">National Hurricane Center <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/\">outlook<\/a> for the Pacific basin<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The forecast track for Marie is shown below.\u00a0The forecast on Monday showed the storm moving into San Diego, but now the track is well west of the coast. Although this storm will not directly affect Arizona, the circulation around Marie may push additional moisture into southwest Arizona tomorrow and northwest Arizona on Sunday, which could support thunderstorm development.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"987\" height=\"807\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5063\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-2.png 987w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-2-300x245.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-2-768x628.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 987px) 100vw, 987px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">National Hurricane Center <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/refresh\/graphics_ep3+shtml\/021435.shtml?cone#contents\">forecast track<\/a> for Marie.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tropical Storm Marie should reach hurricane status later today as it moves northwest\u00a0over the Pacific Ocean. Edouard\u00a0formed in the Gulf of Mexico\u00a0and moved onshore near Beaumont, Texas. It has since weakened to a tropical depression, although it looks more impressive on the satellite image now than it ever\u00a0did as a tropical storm.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"635\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-091751-1024x635.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5064\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-091751-1024x635.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-091751-300x186.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-091751-768x476.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-091751.png 1137w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 upper-level water vapor image September 2nd at 8 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The\u00a0visible satellite image\u00a0at 8\u00a0am\u00a0shows scattered clouds across the region.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"666\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-3-1024x666.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5066\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-3-1024x666.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-3-300x195.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-3-768x500.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-3.png 1240w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery from September 2nd at 8 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dry air has moved into\u00a0Arizona\u00a0along the Colorado River to the west; the rest of Arizona remains humid. In New Mexico, some drying is shown in the north-central part of the state.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"535\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-093154-1024x535.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5067\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-093154-1024x535.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-093154-300x157.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-093154-768x401.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-093154.png 1522w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Surface weather station observations for Arizona and New Mexico at 7:00 am, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/wrh\/hazards?&amp;zoom=8&amp;scroll_zoom=false&amp;center=32.656025851099066,-110.76888628244107&amp;boundaries=false,true,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&amp;tab=observation&amp;hazard=true&amp;hazard_type=all&amp;hazard_opacity=80&amp;obs=true&amp;obs_type=weather&amp;elements=temp,wind,gust&amp;temp_filter=-80,130&amp;gust_filter=0,150&amp;rh_filter=0,100&amp;elev_filter=-300,14000&amp;precip_filter=0.01,30&amp;obs_popup=false&amp;obs_density=60&amp;obs_provider=ALL\">NWS<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z initialization (left) and observed (right) sounding for Phoenix at 5 am are below. There are minor differences near 600mb as moisture is being pulled north in a southwest flow at that level. This moisture increased the precipitable water by a couple of millimeters; it&#8217;s now 35mm initialization and 39 mm observed.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"583\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-093540-1024x583.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5068\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-093540-1024x583.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-093540-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-093540-768x437.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-093540.png 1398w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z (left) initialization and observed sounding (right) at Phoenix for 5 am this morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 250mb, the\u00a0polar jet is cutting across south-central California into central Utah with a short-wave trough rotating around the polar low in Oregon. A\u00a0ridge is in western Mexico east of Hermosillo and a second center in south central Texas. A trough is between the ridges,\u00a0extending\u00a0from the Big Bend\u00a0southeast into Mexico.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"852\" height=\"852\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-095843.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5072\" style=\"width:588px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-095843.png 852w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-095843-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-095843-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-095843-768x768.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 852px) 100vw, 852px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The ridge is centered over West Texas, with warm air aloft moving into Arizona at 500mb.\u00a0The jet stream\u00a0is almost vertically\u00a0stacked with the 250mb jet stream location. A short-wave\u00a0trough is moving northeast over Nevada.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"847\" height=\"851\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-101230.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5075\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9952999627555135;width:590px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-101230.png 847w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-101230-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-101230-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-101230-768x772.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 847px) 100vw, 847px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 700mb, the monsoon ridge is over west Texas, and\u00a0the flow around it is\u00a0pushing moisture into central Arizona. A\u00a0front\u00a0in California (blue arrow)\u00a0is bringing mid-level moisture across western Arizona and southern and eastern Utah. It is very dry behind the front from\u00a0700 mb down to the surface, with low dewpoint temperatures along and west of the Colorado River.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"857\" height=\"852\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-101711.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5076\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.0058675901776006;width:622px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-101711.png 857w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-101711-300x298.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-101711-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-101711-768x764.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 857px) 100vw, 857px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although the 4 pm forecast sounding shows a decent amount of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), warming at 500 mb\u00a0will slow development in Phoenix. Nogales has more CAPE and should be able to overcome the mid-level warming to produce thunderstorms.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-095150-1024x576.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5070\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-095150-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-095150-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-095150-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-02-095150.png 1407w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast soundings for Phoenix (left) and Nogales at 4 pm (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tucson is caught between a few showers near Phoenix and thunderstorms at Nogales\u00a0and into Cochise County. The storms near Tucson should be mainly in and near the mountains. No severe weather is expected from these storms.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"754\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1138 \/ 754;\" width=\"1138\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/20260902-1729-39.7739731.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF simulated radar reflectivity 12Z forecast from 1 pm to 1 am tomorrow.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A\u00a0Mesoscale Convective System\u00a0(MCS) is expected to move northward into southern Arizona early\u00a0Thursday morning with locally heavy rain possible.\u00a0Note that the 15Z\u00a0forecast\u00a0(right) has\u00a0nearly \u00be inch of rain\u00a0at the Tucson International Airport,\u00a0which is down from the inch of rain forecast by the 12Z\u00a0\u00a0(left). The\u00a0exact track of the MCS may be further west or east than the current forecast,\u00a0with even less precipitation.\u00a0The MCS will then move northeast into eastern Pinal, Graham County, and the White Mountains by afternoon\u00a0and into northwest New Mexico in the evening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"572\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1736 \/ 572;\" width=\"1736\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/20260902-1727-35.8869555.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF simulated radar reflectivity 12Z (left) and 15Z (right) forecasts from 1 pm to 3:30 pm tomorrow.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Early\u00a0morning Friday storms\u00a0develop in the Phoenix area\u00a0and move north to the Mogollon Rim.\u00a0More activity develops in southeast Arizona during the afternoon, producing non-severe storms and localized heavy rain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"750\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1134 \/ 750;\" width=\"1134\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/20260902-1737-19.3832120.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity forecast for Friday from 2 am and 9:30 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The long-range global model ensemble shows scattered storms are forecast each day throughout the\u00a0weekend and next week, although storms\u00a0may\u00a0become more isolated\u00a0from Monday and Tuesday onward.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"817\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-7-1024x817.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5087\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-7-1024x817.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-7-300x239.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-7-768x612.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-7.png 1081w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble forecasts of 2-meter temperature (top) and 3-hour accumulated precipitation (bottom), NCAR.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Discussion written by Pat Holbrook and Patrick Bunn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary The tropics remain active with two hurricanes and one tropical storm in the Pacific. The furthest east, Tropical Storm Marie, is expected to become a hurricane as it moves northwest over the Pacific. Marie will stay west of the coast and not directly affect Arizona. However, its circulation could increase moisture in parts of &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[8],"class_list":["post-5053","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-8"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5053","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5053"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5053\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5089,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5053\/revisions\/5089"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5053"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5053"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5053"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}