{"id":5015,"date":"2026-08-31T17:28:05","date_gmt":"2026-08-31T17:28:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=5015"},"modified":"2026-08-31T17:28:05","modified_gmt":"2026-08-31T17:28:05","slug":"august-31st-2026-storms-currently-in-progress-will-produce-heavy-rain-in-tucson-through-the-afternoon-hours-afternoon-storms-will-develop-near-the-international-border-and-move","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=5015","title":{"rendered":"August 31st, 2026: Storms\u00a0currently in progress will produce\u00a0heavy rain\u00a0in Tucson through the afternoon hours.\u00a0Afternoon storms will develop near the international border and move southward."},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A developing tropical system southeast of Hurricane Karina is being monitored as the only significant threat in the tropics, with global-scale weather models differing on its path. Across the southwestern United States, a low-pressure system and a strong jet stream brought overnight storms, especially affecting Arizona and New Mexico. Satellite and surface gauge data show abundant moisture in the region, fueling showers and thunderstorms, particularly around Tucson, where heavy rain is expected, but severe weather is unlikely. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, the heaviest rainfall is forecast from Tucson north to Pinal County from 11 am onward, with more storms developing in neighboring counties moving southwest, with additional storms in central New Mexico later today. Storm activity will decrease tomorrow, with only isolated strong storms in northeast New Mexico, and precipitation is expected to taper off into Tuesday. By midweek, scattered thunderstorms will mainly affect mountainous areas, while temperatures in Tucson are forecast to stay below 100\u00b0F as a weaker monsoon pattern settles in, with the potential for storm activity to increase again by the weekend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday’s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The visible satellite imagery from 5 pm yesterday didn’t look threatening, but two small clusters of thunderstorms were about to change that. The first cluster (green) was pushing eastward from west of Wickenburg with the heaviest storms along the south side of the cluster. The cluster to the south (red) was moving northward and did produce a 58-mph wind gust at Gila Bend.<\/p>\n\n\n

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GOES-19 visible satellite image from August 31st at 5:00 pm, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

By 9 pm the two clusters were merging near Phoenix. These storms produced heavy rain, with many locations recording over an inch, especially in the foothills from Wickenburg east to Cave Creek. There was blowing dust, and winds were below 50 mph.\u00a0Overnight, the storms built further south, extending to Tucson.\u00a0By 7\u00a0am, the radar shows storms redeveloping in Maricopa, Pinal, and Pima counties. These storms are not severe, but they will add to today’s rainfall totals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n