{"id":4981,"date":"2026-08-30T17:33:07","date_gmt":"2026-08-30T17:33:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=4981"},"modified":"2026-08-30T17:36:17","modified_gmt":"2026-08-30T17:36:17","slug":"august-30th-2026-severe-storms-again-today-across-arizona-moving-north-from-afternoon-to-evening-wind-gusts-over-60-mph-and-blowing-dust-heavy-rain-and-large-hail-less-severe-thunderstorms-mond","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=4981","title":{"rendered":"August 30th, 2026: Severe storms again today across Arizona, moving north from afternoon to evening; wind gusts over 60 mph and blowing dust, heavy rain, and large hail. Less severe thunderstorms Monday, with heavy rain the main threat."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Karina has reached hurricane strength, but is moving away from the United States, while another developing storm in the Pacific may impact the West Coast next weekend. The polar jet stream is drawing tropical moisture northward, and a tropical low in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to become a tropical storm over the next few days. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Across Arizona and New Mexico, surface moisture has increased, leading to favorable conditions for thunderstorms. Severe storms are forecast for Arizona, especially around Phoenix and Tucson, with strong winds, heavy rain, and hail possible. Storms will develop tomorrow, bringing additional rain, though the risk of severe winds will decrease. Overall, the region can expect active weather through the weekend, with the monsoon gradually subsiding by Tuesday unless new tropical systems bring more moisture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The visible satellite image overlaid with lightning data shows the thunderstorms extending north from the&nbsp;Mogollon Rim into Nevada and then east into western New Mexico.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"667\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-217-1024x667.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4983\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-217-1024x667.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-217-300x195.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-217-768x500.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-217.png 1222w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery and GLM lightning data from August 29th at 4:30 pm, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Another cluster of thunderstorms was in southeast Arizona from Casa Grande and Graham County southward to Tucson, Nogales, and then into Mexico. A severe wind gust of 80 mph occurred near Green Valley, AZ, and 75 mph in Kane County, Utah, along the Arizona\/Utah border. Non-severe wind gusts were over 50 mph in Tucson and Sells.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"818\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1688 \/ 818;\" width=\"1688\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260830-1618-34.0268421.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">12Z HRRR-UA WRF simulated radar reflectivity (left) and corresponding MRMS radar mosaic (right) from 1 pm yesterday to 7 am today<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) are shown below. The forecast was very good in where the precipitation would fall, although it underestimated the amount.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"335\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-218-1024x335.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4985\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-218-1024x335.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-218-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-218-768x251.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-218-1536x502.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-218.png 1735w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) for August 29th.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Precipitation recorded by the Pima County Flood Control Alert network shows the heaviest precipitation in Tucson along I-10, with other precipitation in the Catalina Mountains and in areas west and south of Tucson.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"950\" height=\"597\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-219.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4986\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-219.png 950w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-219-300x189.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-219-768x483.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 950px) 100vw, 950px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">24-hour precipitation totals from Pima County Regional Flood Control District gauges, <a href=\"https:\/\/alertmap.rfcd.pima.gov\/gmap\/gmap.html\">Alert Map<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The storms near Tucson moved toward Phoenix, as shown on the precipitation gauge map\u00a0in eastern Phoenix below. Other storms in the Wickenburg area moved east, outside and north of Loop 101 in northern Maricopa County. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"793\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-220-1024x793.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4987\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-220-1024x793.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-220-300x232.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-220-768x595.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-220.png 1052w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">24-hour precipitation totals from Maricopa County Regional Flood Control District gauges, <a href=\"https:\/\/alert.fcd.maricopa.gov\/alert\/Google\/v3\/gmap.html\">Alert Map<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Karina has been upgraded to a hurricane as it continues to move away from the United States. The developing storm southeast of Karina has the potential to affect the West Coast of the United States next weekend.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"617\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-221-1024x617.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4988\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-221-1024x617.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-221-300x181.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-221-768x463.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-221.png 1032w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">National Hurricane Center <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/\">outlook<\/a> for the Pacific basin<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The polar jet stream continues to drop to the southeast and is drawing moisture from the tropics. A tropical low in the Gulf of Mexico will probably develop into a tropical storm as it moves west. The Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) west of Brownville will remain nearly stationary.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"634\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-092906-1024x634.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4989\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-092906-1024x634.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-092906-300x186.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-092906-768x475.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-092906.png 1142w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 upper-level water vapor image August 30th at 8 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 8&nbsp;am visible satellite image&nbsp;overlaid with radar data shows a line of clouds and showers from northwest New Mexico to southeast Arizona. Other showers and thunderstorms are&nbsp;along the Mogollon Rim between Phoenix and Flagstaff.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-222-1024x675.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4991\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-222-1024x675.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-222-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-222-768x507.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-222.png 1222w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery and radar reflectivity data from August 30th at 8 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Both Arizona and New Mexico\u00a0have more\u00a0surface moisture than yesterday, with the 60\u00b0F dewpoint temperatures having pushed eastward into Graham and Cochise counties.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"571\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-093702-1024x571.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4993\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-093702-1024x571.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-093702-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-093702-768x428.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-093702.png 1427w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Surface weather station observations for Arizona and New Mexico at 7:00 am, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/wrh\/hazards?&amp;zoom=8&amp;scroll_zoom=false&amp;center=32.656025851099066,-110.76888628244107&amp;boundaries=false,true,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&amp;tab=observation&amp;hazard=true&amp;hazard_type=all&amp;hazard_opacity=80&amp;obs=true&amp;obs_type=weather&amp;elements=temp,wind,gust&amp;temp_filter=-80,130&amp;gust_filter=0,150&amp;rh_filter=0,100&amp;elev_filter=-300,14000&amp;precip_filter=0.01,30&amp;obs_popup=false&amp;obs_density=60&amp;obs_provider=ALL\">NWS<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z initialization (left) and observed (right) sounding for Phoenix at 5 am are similar. The observed sounding has more data points that are plotted than the initialized sounding,\u00a0but both soundings have precipitable water near 42 mm\u00a0(1.7&#8243;).<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"578\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-094008-1024x578.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4994\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-094008-1024x578.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-094008-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-094008-768x433.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-094008.png 1404w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z (left) initialization and observed sounding (right) at Phoenix for 5 am this morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The jet stream continues to drop slowly southeast and extends from south-central California to northeast Utah\u00a0at 250mb. Two high-pressure centers are in northwest Texas and near Hermosillo, Mexico. A TUTT low is west of Brownsville.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"851\" height=\"861\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-094407.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4995\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9883903688646003;width:576px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-094407.png 851w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-094407-297x300.png 297w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-094407-768x777.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 851px) 100vw, 851px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At\u00a0500 mb, the\u00a0polar jet stream\u00a0extends from central California to southeast Wyoming with the coldest air aloft over Idaho. The\u00a0subtropical high pressure (monsoon ridge)\u00a0is now over Oklahoma. Westerly winds dominate Arizona, with the strongest winds near 35 knots in far northwest Arizona.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"846\" height=\"861\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-094628.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4996\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9825710328827341;width:590px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-094628.png 846w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-094628-295x300.png 295w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-094628-768x782.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 846px) 100vw, 846px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 700mb, the monsoon flow is pushing moisture into Arizona&nbsp;clockwise&nbsp;around the high-pressure ridge from Oklahoma to northwest Mexico. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"852\" height=\"862\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-094759.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4997\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9883903688646003;width:608px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-094759.png 852w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-094759-297x300.png 297w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-094759-768x777.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 852px) 100vw, 852px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The forecast sounding for Phoenix at 5:30 pm (left) shows a good profile for making severe thunderstorms with Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) over 1200 [J\/kg] with no Convective Inhibition (CIN). Storm motion will be to the northeast at 10\u201315 mph, as shown by\u00a0Bunkers Relative Motion\u00a0wind\u00a0arrow on the hodograph (bottom right corner). The forecast sounding for Tucson at 3:30 pm (right) has slightly less CAPE than yesterday at around 430\u00a0[J\/kg] CAPE with little CIN. There is also potential for severe storms in southeast Arizona.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"572\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-100505-1024x572.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4999\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-100505-1024x572.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-100505-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-100505-768x429.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-30-100505.png 1419w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast soundings for Phoenix at 5:30 pm (left) and Tucson at 3:30 pm (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thunderstorms will form around the Tucson area in the afternoon and move northwest to Phoenix, arriving near 7 pm.\u00a0Then\u00a0they move northeast\u00a0into the Mogollon Rim around 9 pm and northwest\u00a0to the Arizona\/California border by midnight. The storms will\u00a0produce wind gusts over 60 mph with blowing dust, heavy rain, and large hail. The hail will be the largest in the central and northern parts of\u00a0Arizona,\u00a0with hail size around 1&#8243;.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"566\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1732 \/ 566;\" width=\"1732\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260830-1712-07.5965787.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left) and 10-meter wind speed (right) forecast from 2 pm to 5 am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Other storms develop overnight from Yuma to Kingman, with weaker storms in Santa Cruz and eastern Pima County<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thunderstorms will develop near Tucson around noon and by afternoon extend from southern Maricopa County east across the Tucson metro area and then east into Cochise County. The storms will move into the Phoenix metro area, Wickenburg, and the Mogollon Rim by evening. The storms probably won&#8217;t produce severe wind gusts, but the strongest storms could reach 45 mph. Heavy rain will be the primary threat. Thunderstorms will develop in northeast Arizona and western New Mexico during the afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"568\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1736 \/ 568;\" width=\"1736\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260830-1714-42.6939428.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left) and 10-meter wind speed (right) forecasts for tomorrow from 11 am to midnight.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">24-hour total accumulated precipitation (left) shows bands of >0.5&#8243; rainfall in central Pima County, eastern Pinal, north of Phoenix, and on the Mogollon Rim. 48-hour totals (right) add to what will fall on the Mogollon Rim today and other areas of higher elevation in Pima County; additional totals for Maricopa and Yavapai counties are predicted for tomorrow. Tucson and Phoenix metro areas get totals in the 0.25 to 0.5&#8243; range for both days.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"334\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-223-1024x334.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5003\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-223-1024x334.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-223-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-223-768x251.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-223-1536x502.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-223.png 1736w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z total precipitation 24-hour (left) and 48-hour (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Only isolated thunderstorms will develop along the international border and northwest Arizona\u00a0on\u00a0Tuesday as the monsoon winds down and moisture dries out.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"680\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-225-1024x680.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5006\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-225-1024x680.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-225-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-225-768x510.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-225.png 1137w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity forecast for Tuesday at 7 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A drop in monsoon thunderstorm activity begins Tuesday and will continue into the weekend unless tropical systems push more moisture into the area.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1076\" height=\"847\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-224-edited-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5008\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.264393814809949;width:792px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-224-edited-1.png 1076w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-224-edited-1-300x236.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-224-edited-1-1024x806.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-224-edited-1-768x605.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1076px) 100vw, 1076px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble forecasts of 2-meter temperature (top) and 3-hour accumulated precipitation (bottom), NCAR.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Discussion written by Pat Holbrook and Patrick Bunn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary Karina has reached hurricane strength, but is moving away from the United States, while another developing storm in the Pacific may impact the West Coast next weekend. The polar jet stream is drawing tropical moisture northward, and a tropical low in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to become a tropical storm over the &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[8],"class_list":["post-4981","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-8"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4981","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4981"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4981\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5014,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4981\/revisions\/5014"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4981"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4981"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4981"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}