{"id":498,"date":"2025-06-29T17:49:28","date_gmt":"2025-06-29T17:49:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=498"},"modified":"2025-06-29T19:04:05","modified_gmt":"2025-06-29T19:04:05","slug":"and-so-the-flow-begins-june-29th-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=498","title":{"rendered":"And so, the flow begins: June 29th, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Dry air suppressed convection across the region, with the best storms in eastern New Mexico. Even the storms in Mexico reflected the drying trend with deep convection much further south compared to previous days this week. Of note is the southward moving storms in the White mountains and west central New Mexico. The mixed layer depth was close to 500mb in this area and this pattern should repeat itself for the next few days with strong microbursts possible. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"822\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1106 \/ 822;\" width=\"1106\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Recording-2025-06-29-083847.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES19 infrared imagery with GLM derived lightning flashes from June 28th 12pm to 1am this morning, College of DuPage<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Temperatures continued to climb and combined with dry air in the deserts the upslope afternoon winds felt like a blast furnace.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"735\" height=\"714\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-29-090449.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-502\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-29-090449.png 735w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-29-090449-300x291.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 735px) 100vw, 735px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">5 minute meteorological observations for the Tucson airport (KTUS), gust wind speeds are shown in pink and were often coupled to a increase in temperature.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>We have two tropical storms; Barry in the southern Gulf of Mexico and Flossie is moving along the southwest coastal area of Mexico in the Pacific. Combined they will result in a synoptic push of moisture into the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"674\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1122 \/ 674;\" width=\"1122\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Recording-2025-06-29-094011.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Visible satellite image loop, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov\/GOES\/sector_band.php?sat=G16&amp;sector=eep&amp;band=02&amp;length=24\">NHC<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>At 250 mb, winds remain dominantly westerly. The nearest tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT 1 in previous discussions) is sitting over Texas. Another TUTT low (2) has begun to dissipate over Georgia, and a third TUTT low (3) is off the coast of Florida. A low pressure system is in the Pacific, west of San Francisco, moving east.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"838\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1378 \/ 838;\" width=\"1378\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Recording-2025-06-29-093143.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES19 upper level water vapor images from June 29th at 5:30am to 9:20am, College of DuPage<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>At 500mb, a ridge is in northwest New Mexico with anticyclonic (clockwise) flow over both states. Southern Arizona New Mexico is in easterly flow. This is the start of the &#8220;monsoon ridge&#8221; building, which sets up favorable flow to bring moisture into the region from the south. <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"842\" height=\"856\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-29-092426.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-506\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-29-092426.png 842w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-29-092426-295x300.png 295w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-29-092426-768x781.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 842px) 100vw, 842px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>At 700 mb, high pressure is over southern Arizona and eastern Texas with a trough from Kansas southwest to El Paso. Wind flow is southerly in western Arizona becoming northerly in eastern Arizona and western New Mexico generally around 10 to 15 mph. Despite this flow being favorable, moisture is lacking for the time being.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"502\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-29-101028-1024x502.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-516\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-29-101028-1024x502.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-29-101028-300x147.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-29-101028-768x376.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-29-101028-1536x753.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-29-101028.png 1736w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 700mb relative humidity and winds (left), precipitable water (right)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Some storms are expected over the mountains in New Mexico&nbsp;today. Strong winds will be associated with these storms, with gusts of up to 45mph. Storms will form over the mountains in eastern Arizona, but the majority of the precipitation will evaporate before it can hit the ground. These storms will also produce microburst winds around 40 mph. Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday across both states. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"564\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1750 \/ 564;\" width=\"1750\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Recording-2025-06-29-102337.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left), 10meter wind speed (right)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Extremely high temperatures are expected tomorrow across Arizona, hitting around 110\u00b0F in Tucson and 115\u00b0F in Phoenix. Storms are expected over New Mexico and the southeastern corner of Arizona. Strong gusty winds are expected with some of these storms, stronger than yesterday and moving out to the deserts in the evening. \u00a0Peak winds in New Mexico could reach up to 50 mph, whereas the strongest winds in Arizona are expected around the mountains at around 45 mph weakening to 30 mph in the lower deserts. The strong winds are a function of the inverted-v soundings as indicated by the forecast sounding for San Simon below (note the DCAPE at 1900 [J\/kg], and the positive omega values [Pa\/s] in blue showing downward vertical motion)<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"632\" height=\"710\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-29-102936.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-519\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-29-102936.png 632w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-29-102936-267x300.png 267w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 632px) 100vw, 632px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 15Z forecast sounding for San Simon tomorrow at 3pm<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The combination of the tropical systems and the front off the coast of California dropping down into New Mexico will produce a favorable environment for a Gulf surge. 10 meter wind speed and 2m dewpoint forecasts below show the surge start at midnight on Tuesday evening. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"570\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1736 \/ 570;\" width=\"1736\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Recording-2025-06-29-103911.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 10 meter wind speed (left), 2 meter dewpoint temperature (right)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Forecast storm tracks for Barry and Flossie are below.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"995\" height=\"812\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-29-104446.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-523\" style=\"width:604px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-29-104446.png 995w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-29-104446-300x245.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-29-104446-768x627.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 995px) 100vw, 995px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/\">https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"992\" height=\"811\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-29-104538.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-524\" style=\"width:602px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-29-104538.png 992w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-29-104538-300x245.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-29-104538-768x628.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 992px) 100vw, 992px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/\">https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Discussion written by Pat Holbrook<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yesterday&#8217;s Weather Dry air suppressed convection across the region, with the best storms in eastern New Mexico. Even the storms in Mexico reflected the drying trend with deep convection much further south compared to previous days this week. Of note is the southward moving storms in the White mountains and west central New Mexico. The &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-498","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/498","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=498"}],"version-history":[{"count":20,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/498\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":529,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/498\/revisions\/529"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=498"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=498"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=498"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}