{"id":4838,"date":"2026-08-26T17:38:21","date_gmt":"2026-08-26T17:38:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=4838"},"modified":"2026-08-26T17:38:21","modified_gmt":"2026-08-26T17:38:21","slug":"august-26th-2026-isolated-storms-today-and-thursday-storms-increase-in-areal-coverage-friday-into-the-weekend","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=4838","title":{"rendered":"August 26th, 2026: Isolated storms today and Thursday.\u00a0Storms increase in areal coverage Friday into the weekend."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tropical Storm Iselle remains the only active tropical system in the eastern Pacific, and a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) low is just west of Puerto Vallarta in the Pacific Ocean. Westerlies at 250 mb signal that the dynamic end of the monsoon season is close. Still, the subtropical high-pressure (monsoon ridge) is over New Mexico at 500 mb, but moisture at 700 mb remains much further south into Mexico. Arizona and western New Mexico are experiencing dry surface conditions, while eastern New Mexico has higher humidity from a back door cold front moving north to south.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Today, thunderstorm activity is expected to be scattered and mostly light, focusing on central and eastern Arizona and New Mexico, with the strongest storms near Roswell. Tomorrow, thunderstorms will become more widespread across Arizona, but are not expected to be severe; rainfall will be heaviest in mountainous areas. The pattern will persist into the weekend, bringing more storms and cooler temperatures, followed by a drier and warmer trend next week, though not as hot as the current week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The visible satellite\u00a0animation\u00a0shows\u00a0only small storms along the Mogollon Rim\u00a0at 5 pm,\u00a0with\u00a0larger\u00a0thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico. A cold front pushed into northeast New Mexico, significantly increasing thunderstorm intensity, with many high-wind reports in the Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico. Arizona has southwest winds in the upper levels signaling the end of the 2026 monsoon\u00a0season. On occasion, a tropical system or short-wave troughs in the westerlies will travel near enough to tap monsoon moisture to the south and provide a few days of thunderstorms. Global-scale models have had a difficult time forecasting tropical activity, so 3- to 10-day tropical forecasts are too uncertain to make any robust comment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"828\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1224 \/ 828;\" width=\"1224\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260826-1605-05.6283653.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery from August 25th from 12 pm to midnight, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) are shown below. There was more thunderstorm activity in northeast New Mexico than forecast due to the frontal zone in that area. Only a few stations along the Mogollon Rim reported any rainfall yesterday; otherwise, Arizona was dry.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"334\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-182-1024x334.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4849\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-182-1024x334.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-182-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-182-768x251.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-182-1536x502.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-182.png 1736w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) for August 25th.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tropical Storm Iselle is the only tropical system in the eastern Pacific, and a broad, high-level anticyclone sits above its low-level cyclonic circulation, the typical structure for tropical systems. A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) low is just west of Puerto Vallarta in the Pacific Ocean, and another one is in the northwest Caribbean Sea.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"619\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-093502-1024x619.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4855\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-093502-1024x619.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-093502-300x181.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-093502-768x465.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-093502.png 1182w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 upper-level water vapor image August 26th at 8 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A broader view of the central and eastern Pacific shows two tropical storms, LaLa\u00a0and Iselle, and several areas with potential for tropical development.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1032\" height=\"620\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-184-edited.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4857\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-184-edited.png 1032w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-184-edited-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-184-edited-1024x615.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-184-edited-768x461.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1032px) 100vw, 1032px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">National Hurricane Center <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/\">outlook <\/a>for the Pacific basin<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The\u00a0visible satellite image\u00a0at 8 am shows mostly debris clouds from last night&#8217;s convection. Some high-level moisture from Iselle&#8217;s outflow is over far southwest Arizona.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"669\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-183-1024x669.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4853\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-183-1024x669.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-183-300x196.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-183-768x502.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-183.png 1242w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery from August 26th at 8 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Surface moisture remains\u00a0low in Arizona and the western third of New Mexico. The higher dewpoint temperatures in eastern New Mexico are\u00a0associated with the front.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"550\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-091246-1024x550.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4851\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-091246-1024x550.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-091246-300x161.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-091246-768x413.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-091246.png 1472w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Surface weather station observations for Arizona and New Mexico at 7:00 am, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/wrh\/hazards?&amp;zoom=8&amp;scroll_zoom=false&amp;center=32.656025851099066,-110.76888628244107&amp;boundaries=false,true,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&amp;tab=observation&amp;hazard=true&amp;hazard_type=all&amp;hazard_opacity=80&amp;obs=true&amp;obs_type=weather&amp;elements=temp,wind,gust&amp;temp_filter=-80,130&amp;gust_filter=0,150&amp;rh_filter=0,100&amp;elev_filter=-300,14000&amp;precip_filter=0.01,30&amp;obs_popup=false&amp;obs_density=60&amp;obs_provider=ALL\">NWS<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z initialization (left) and observed (right) sounding for Phoenix at 5 am are shown below. It&#8217;s really dry, although there is a\u00a0layer between\u00a0550 and 500mb on the observed\u00a0sounding\u00a0where clouds will form this afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"581\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-091439-1024x581.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4852\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-091439-1024x581.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-091439-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-091439-768x435.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-091439.png 1397w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z (left) initialization and observed sounding (right) at Phoenix for 5 am this morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Westerlies\u00a0dominate the atmospheric circulation at 250 mb.\u00a0The subtropical\u00a0ridge is displaced well to the south, with one center over the spur of the Baja Peninsula and another south\u00a0of the boot heel of New Mexico. The TUTT low is a little further south and west, as annotated.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"842\" height=\"852\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-095742.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4858\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9882546669292905;width:578px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-095742.png 842w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-095742-296x300.png 296w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-095742-768x777.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 842px) 100vw, 842px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 500mb, the monsoon high is over southern and southeastern New Mexico with a broad anticyclonic flow between the high and low pressure\u00a0off the West\u00a0Coast and a trough in the Great Plains. The monsoon circulation is stretched across\u00a0northern Mexico.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"852\" height=\"846\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-100150.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4859\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.0070936403109672;width:588px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-100150.png 852w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-100150-300x298.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-100150-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-100150-768x763.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 852px) 100vw, 852px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 700mb, the monsoon high is over the Four Corners region, and easterly flow is in place in Mexico, south of the ridge. No significant moisture is associated with the monsoon flow\u00a0in Arizona, but there&#8217;s just enough to keep\u00a0thunderstorms active over the spine\u00a0of the Sierra Madre.\u00a0The moisture in the Midwest is behind the front.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"851\" height=\"852\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-100340.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4860\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9988307290303978;width:584px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-100340.png 851w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-100340-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-100340-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-100340-768x769.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 851px) 100vw, 851px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The forecast sounding below for Nogales\u00a0(left) at 2:30 pm shows\u00a0both Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Convective Inhibition (CIN) are low. The minimal amount of moisture available would make any storm that does form have\u00a0bases above 15,000\u00a0feet\u00a0(4.5 km).\u00a0The forecast for\u00a0Carlsbad at 5pm has too much CIN, and surface-based thunderstorms will need outflow from\u00a0nearby storms developing\u00a0over\u00a0the mountains to form\u00a0in the valleys.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"574\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-100628-1024x574.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4861\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-100628-1024x574.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-100628-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-100628-768x430.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-26-100628.png 1413w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast soundings for Nogales at 2:30 pm (left) and Carlsbad at 5 pm (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z\u00a0radar reflectivity\u00a0forecast for this afternoon shows thunderstorms\u00a0in central Pima County with a few showers near Tucson. To the north, thunderstorms are in eastern Arizona extending east into New Mexico with the strongest storms northwest of Roswell.\u00a0The strongest wind gusts will be associated with the\u00a0storms near\u00a0Roswell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"752\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1128 \/ 752;\" width=\"1128\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260826-1710-46.9148216.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity from 12 pm to 4 am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thunderstorms increase in areal coverage across Arizona, though they&#8217;re\u00a0forecast to be relatively unorganized. Still,\u00a0each storm would be\u00a0capable of producing\u00a0wind gusts up to 40 mph. Most of the rain in the valleys will be light, with heavier rain totals near mountains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"570\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1732 \/ 570;\" width=\"1732\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260826-1712-51.5306802.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left) and 10-meter wind speed (right) for tomorrow from 1 pm to 4 am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The total precipitation forecasts through 24 hours (left) and through 48 hours (right) show mostly light precipitation over the next two days, with the only >0.5&#8243; totals in the mountains, especially in central New Mexico.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"335\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-185-1024x335.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4865\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-185-1024x335.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-185-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-185-768x251.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-185-1536x503.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-185.png 1732w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 24-hour (left) and 48-hour (right) accumulated precipitation forecast.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A similar pattern continues on Friday, with storms forming in eastern Arizona and moving northwest into the low deserts, likely into the Phoenix area.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"688\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-186-1024x688.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4868\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-186-1024x688.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-186-300x202.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-186-768x516.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-186.png 1127w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity forecast for Friday at 3 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Storms increase into the weekend, and daily high\u00a0temperatures will drop back to normal. Next week, moisture\u00a0decreases and temperatures warm again,\u00a0but not as hot as this week.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"790\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-187-1024x790.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4869\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-187-1024x790.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-187-300x232.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-187-768x593.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-187.png 1122w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble forecasts of 2-meter temperature (top) and 3-hour accumulated precipitation (bottom), NCAR.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Discussion written by Pat Holbrook and Patrick Bunn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary Tropical Storm Iselle remains the only active tropical system in the eastern Pacific, and a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) low is just west of Puerto Vallarta in the Pacific Ocean. Westerlies at 250 mb signal that the dynamic end of the monsoon season is close. Still, the subtropical high-pressure (monsoon ridge) is over &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[8],"class_list":["post-4838","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-8"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4838","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4838"}],"version-history":[{"count":14,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4838\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4875,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4838\/revisions\/4875"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4838"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4838"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4838"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}