{"id":4810,"date":"2026-08-24T17:40:19","date_gmt":"2026-08-24T17:40:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=4810"},"modified":"2026-08-24T18:49:14","modified_gmt":"2026-08-24T18:49:14","slug":"august-24th-2026-thunderstorms-will-be-few-and-far-between-for-the-next-few-days-as-we-await-the-return-of-moisture","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=4810","title":{"rendered":"August 24th, 2026: Thunderstorms will be few and far between\u00a0for\u00a0the next few days as we await the return of\u00a0moisture."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tropical Storm Iselle has formed rapidly and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane soon. Currently, a TUTT low remains over south-central Mexico. Satellite and radar images from this morning show scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily north of I-10 and into California. While surface dewpoints are decreasing, especially in eastern New Mexico, limiting activity at low elevations, dewpoints remain sufficient for storm development at higher elevations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forecasts indicate limited thunderstorm activity for Phoenix and Tucson today due to insufficient Convective Available Potential Energy and Convective Inhibition due to dry air at 700 mb. Tomorrow, the monsoon ridge will begin to rebuild, leading to a slight increase in storms in New Mexico and northern Mexico, but Arizona will see little to no activity. By Wednesday, thunderstorms may return to southern Arizona, though severe weather is not expected. A greater chance of rain is forecast for the weekend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yesterday afternoon started with&nbsp;thunderstorms across northern Arizona and isolated storms&nbsp;across the south. Then by late afternoon, a cluster&nbsp;of thunderstorms developed over eastern Pima and&nbsp;Santa Cruz counties&nbsp;and moved west-northwest&nbsp;into Tucson and central Pima County before turning north into western Pinal and central and western&nbsp;Maricopa&nbsp;counties. These storms contained mostly blowing dust and strong winds, with Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport reporting a gust to 55 mph.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"804\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1238 \/ 804;\" width=\"1238\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260824-1557-49.2372856.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery from August 23rd from 10 am to 10 pm, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Precipitation totals in eastern Pima County show that the storms were mainly in and near&nbsp;the mountains where &gt;0.5&#8243; fell, whereas in the foothills totals were &lt;0.3&#8243;.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"842\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-175.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4815\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.0591128209386442;width:600px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-175.png 842w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-175-300x283.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-175-768x725.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 842px) 100vw, 842px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">24-hour precipitation totals from Pima County Regional Flood Control District gauges, <a href=\"https:\/\/alertmap.rfcd.pima.gov\/gmap\/gmap.html\">Alert Map<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For Maricopa County, the precipitation was mainly over the western half of the county.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"770\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-177-1024x770.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4817\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.3298854221132141;width:764px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-177-1024x770.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-177-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-177-768x577.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-177.png 1087w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">24-hour precipitation totals from Maricopa County Regional Flood Control District gauges, <a href=\"https:\/\/alert.fcd.maricopa.gov\/alert\/Google\/v3\/gmap.html\">Alert Map<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) are shown below.&nbsp;The MRMS observed data show a broad view of precipitation across the region: one area of precipitation was the more typical storms across northern Arizona, and another was a cluster of thunderstorms that developed from Tucson northwest to Maricopa and La Paz counties.&nbsp;The forecast&nbsp;did well&nbsp;with the&nbsp;two clusters of thunderstorms, except the storms extended further&nbsp;into western Maricopa and La Paz&nbsp;than predicted. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"340\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-176-1024x340.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4816\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-176-1024x340.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-176-300x100.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-176-768x255.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-176-1536x510.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-176.png 1732w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) for August 23rd.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The cloud camera on UofA campus caught the storm that hit the Catalina Mountains. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"852\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1460 \/ 852;\" width=\"1460\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260824-1846-59.6024917.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Sky camera footage looking north from UofA campus<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tropical Storm Iselle&nbsp;has formed quickly&nbsp;and is expected to become a hurricane later today. A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) low remains in south-central Mexico, while the upper low and trough along the west coast are lifting northeast.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"739\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-091428-1024x739.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4819\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-091428-1024x739.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-091428-300x216.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-091428-768x554.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-091428.png 1070w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 upper-level water vapor image August 24th at 8 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The&nbsp;visible satellite image&nbsp;overlaid with radar and lightning data&nbsp;from 8 am shows a thin line of showers from central Pima County to near Casa Grande, then north to Flagstaff. More showers extend from Flagstaff&nbsp;west into California north of I-10. The trough off the West Coast continues to pull showers north.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"690\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-178-1024x690.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4820\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-178-1024x690.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-178-300x202.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-178-768x518.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-178.png 1197w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery from August 23rd at 8 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Surface dewpoint temperatures show decreasing moisture across the region, especially&nbsp;in eastern New Mexico.&nbsp;However, 50\u00b0F dewpoints in the mountains are generally enough for thunderstorms to develop.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"569\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-092250-1024x569.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4821\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-092250-1024x569.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-092250-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-092250-768x427.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-092250.png 1417w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Surface weather station observations for Arizona and New Mexico at 7:00 am, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/wrh\/hazards?&amp;zoom=8&amp;scroll_zoom=false&amp;center=32.656025851099066,-110.76888628244107&amp;boundaries=false,true,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&amp;tab=observation&amp;hazard=true&amp;hazard_type=all&amp;hazard_opacity=80&amp;obs=true&amp;obs_type=weather&amp;elements=temp,wind,gust&amp;temp_filter=-80,130&amp;gust_filter=0,150&amp;rh_filter=0,100&amp;elev_filter=-300,14000&amp;precip_filter=0.01,30&amp;obs_popup=false&amp;obs_density=60&amp;obs_provider=ALL\">NWS<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z initialization (left) and observed (right) sounding for Phoenix at 5 am are shown below.&nbsp;There are&nbsp;clouds&nbsp;in the profile&nbsp;with bases about 14,000 feet&nbsp;(4.2 km)&nbsp;and tops extending to 30,000 feet&nbsp;(9 km). There&nbsp;appears&nbsp;to be too much cooling below 750mb to get surface-based thunderstorms this afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"579\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-092410-1024x579.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4822\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-092410-1024x579.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-092410-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-092410-768x434.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-092410.png 1407w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z (left) initialization and observed sounding (right) at Phoenix for 5 am this morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 250 mb, the jet stream and trough will dry Arizona out for the next few days&nbsp;as they move east. The subtropical high-pressure ridge is near Midland, Texas, while the TUTT low is in south-central Mexico.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"842\" height=\"860\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-100150.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4825\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9790780209200582;width:568px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-100150.png 842w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-100150-294x300.png 294w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-100150-768x784.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 842px) 100vw, 842px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 500mb,&nbsp;the ridge is near&nbsp;Lubbock, Texas, with a&nbsp;broad anticyclonic circulation dominating&nbsp;the region.&nbsp;A&nbsp;small&nbsp;cyclonic circulation (anti-clockwise)&nbsp;west of Flagstaff is moving north and will be the focus of storms in northern Arizona and southern Utah.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"842\" height=\"856\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-100351.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4826\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9836449416391081;width:578px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-100351.png 842w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-100351-295x300.png 295w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-100351-768x781.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 842px) 100vw, 842px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The monsoon ridge has two centers&nbsp;at 700 mb; one in northern Arizona and another&nbsp;near Midland, Texas. A trough splitting the ridge extends southwest from Kansas to north central New Mexico. Several short-wave troughs are rotating under the trough and will aid thunderstorm development along the spine of the Sierra Madre mountains.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"851\" height=\"857\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-100642.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4827\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9930055913276519;width:588px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-100642.png 851w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-100642-298x300.png 298w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-100642-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-100642-768x773.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 851px) 100vw, 851px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For Phoenix, the forecast sounding at 4 pm (left), there is too much Convective Inhibition (CIN) and not enough Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) to make thunderstorms. In Tucson&nbsp;at 2 pm (right), there may&nbsp;also be too much&nbsp;CIN&nbsp;in the wake of yesterday&#8217;s storms.&nbsp;The dry air at 700 mb will inhibit convection from&nbsp;reaching the Lifting Condensation Level&nbsp;(LCL).<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"575\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-101417-1024x575.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4828\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-101417-1024x575.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-101417-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-101417-768x431.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-24-101417.png 1410w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast soundings for Phoenix at 4 pm (left) and Tucson at 2 pm (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The forecast&nbsp;radar reflectivity for this&nbsp;afternoon is lackluster&nbsp;in southern Arizona and New Mexico, with only a few storms over the northern half of the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"750\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1132 \/ 750;\" width=\"1132\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260824-1722-27.2329872.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity from 2 pm to midnight.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The monsoon ridge will begin building back into the region with a few more storms in New Mexico, but mainly in northern Mexico. Arizona will have few to no storms.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"673\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-179-1024x673.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4831\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-179-1024x673.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-179-300x197.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-179-768x505.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-179.png 1137w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity tomorrow at 5 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The monsoon ridge continues to move further west, with an uptick in thunderstorms in southern Arizona on Wednesday. No severe storms are expected, but a few thunderstorms may affect Tucson in the afternoon.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-180-1024x682.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4832\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-180-1024x682.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-180-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-180-768x511.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-180.png 1137w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity Wednesday at 4 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Long-range global model forecast shows a return of moisture Thursday through the weekend. The best chance of rain in the valleys will be this weekend.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"823\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-181-1024x823.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4834\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-181-1024x823.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-181-300x241.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-181-768x618.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-181.png 1072w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble forecasts of 2-meter temperature (top) and 3-hour accumulated precipitation (bottom), NCAR.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Discussion written by Pat Holbrook and Patrick Bunn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary Tropical Storm Iselle has formed rapidly and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane soon. Currently, a TUTT low remains over south-central Mexico. Satellite and radar images from this morning show scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily north of I-10 and into California. While surface dewpoints are decreasing, especially in eastern New Mexico, limiting activity &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[8],"class_list":["post-4810","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-8"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4810","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4810"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4810\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4845,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4810\/revisions\/4845"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4810"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4810"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4810"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}