{"id":4745,"date":"2026-08-21T17:37:11","date_gmt":"2026-08-21T17:37:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=4745"},"modified":"2026-08-21T17:37:11","modified_gmt":"2026-08-21T17:37:11","slug":"august-21st-2026-the-phoenix-and-tucson-metro-areas-will-be-hot-today-with-the-only-storms-far-off-in-the-mountains","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=4745","title":{"rendered":"August 21st, 2026: The\u00a0Phoenix and Tucson metro\u00a0areas will be hot today,\u00a0with the only storms far off in the mountains."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Three Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs (TUTT) are moving across the region, and the monsoon ridge is shifting in response to an approaching trough from the West Coast. Satellite images show debris clouds and developing thunderstorms, especially in central and western Pima County. Surface observations indicate a decrease in moisture, but enough remains in northern Arizona for isolated storms. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forecasts predict more isolated, less intense thunderstorms today, with limited rainfall and gusty winds, and a similar pattern continuing into tomorrow. Over the next few days, the monsoon pattern is expected to stay low-grade, although potential tropical activity in late August or early September could bring moisture back to Arizona. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The infrared satellite image from 6:00 pm yesterday shows colors that represent cloud-top temperature (blue-green to orange-red, meaning warmer to colder), which is analogous to cloud height above the ground. The scale on the right shows the heights in feet and km, and the circled clouds had tops around 55,000 feet\u00a0(18 km). Although the\u00a0clouds were tall, upper-level winds spread them over a large area downwind of the thunderstorm (circled in black), making the storms\u00a0appear disproportionately large given the size of their cores.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"610\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-167-1024x610.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4783\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-167-1024x610.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-167-300x179.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-167-768x458.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-167.png 1297w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 infrared satellite imagery from August 20th at 6 pm, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The radar reflectivity comparison below (forecast left, observation right) shows scattered storms over northern Arizona and New Mexico, with only isolated storms in southern Arizona.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"564\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1736 \/ 564;\" width=\"1736\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260821-1557-21.9951034.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity forecast (left) and corresponding observed radar reflectivity MRMS (right) for yesterday from 12 pm to 4 am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) are shown below.\u00a0No precipitation fell in the Tucson or Phoenix metro area yesterday. The\u00a0MRMS observations below show the precipitation that fell in the northern half of Arizona and New Mexico. The rain near Yuma was from the MCS yesterday morning.\u00a0The forecast areal coverage of precipitation in northern New Mexico was underestimated, as was the rainfall from the MCS near Yuma.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"332\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-168-1024x332.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4788\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-168-1024x332.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-168-300x97.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-168-768x249.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-168-1536x498.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-168.png 1735w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) for August 20th.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The upper-level water vapor satellite image\u00a0below\u00a0shows\u00a0three\u00a0Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough\u00a0(TUTT) lows still,\u00a0but\u00a0the one off the California coast is being absorbed into the jet stream. The polar low and jet stream to its\u00a0east\u00a0are moving slowly northward.\u00a0The TUTT low in central Mexico is moving slowly west while the TUTT low near Florida is weakening as it moves southward.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"676\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-090838-1024x676.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4790\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-090838-1024x676.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-090838-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-090838-768x507.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-090838.png 1057w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 upper-level water vapor image August 21st at 6 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The visible satellite image\u00a0shows mostly debris clouds from last night&#8217;s activity. The clouds west of Nogales are forecast to develop into thunderstorms\u00a0this afternoon in central and western Pima County.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"688\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-169-1024x688.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4791\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-169-1024x688.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-169-300x202.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-169-768x516.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-169.png 1207w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery from August 21st at 8:26 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The surface dewpoints show an overall decrease in moisture\u00a0content in\u00a0southern Arizona as the Gulf Surge has ended.\u00a0However,\u00a0there is still enough moisture for now\u00a0across northern Arizona to support thunderstorms again this afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"568\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-091613-1024x568.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4792\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-091613-1024x568.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-091613-300x166.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-091613-768x426.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-091613.png 1438w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Surface weather station observations for Arizona and New Mexico at 7:00 am, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/wrh\/hazards?&amp;zoom=8&amp;scroll_zoom=false&amp;center=32.656025851099066,-110.76888628244107&amp;boundaries=false,true,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&amp;tab=observation&amp;hazard=true&amp;hazard_type=all&amp;hazard_opacity=80&amp;obs=true&amp;obs_type=weather&amp;elements=temp,wind,gust&amp;temp_filter=-80,130&amp;gust_filter=0,150&amp;rh_filter=0,100&amp;elev_filter=-300,14000&amp;precip_filter=0.01,30&amp;obs_popup=false&amp;obs_density=60&amp;obs_provider=ALL\">NWS<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z initialization (left) and observed (right) sounding for Phoenix at 5 am are shown below. Both the forecast initialization and observed sounding surface-based Convective Available Potential Energy values are erroneously large because of the high surface dewpoint temperature. The mixed-layer CAPE and Convective Inhibition (CIN) best represent the atmosphere, and with more drying expected today, realized CAPE values will be lower.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"581\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-092231-1024x581.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4793\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-092231-1024x581.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-092231-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-092231-768x436.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-092231.png 1397w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z (left) initialization and observed sounding (right) at Phoenix for 5 am this morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At\u00a0250mb, the monsoon high is just south of the Four Corners,\u00a0and a\u00a0TUTT low is in central Mexico. Major changes are in store over the next few days as the trough off the West Coast moves east and\u00a0pushes\u00a0the monsoon ridge into southeast New Mexico. The TUTT low will be stretched into an east-to-west trough across central Mexico.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"845\" height=\"851\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-092534.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4794\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9929469150707798;width:574px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-092534.png 845w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-092534-298x300.png 298w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-092534-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-092534-768x773.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 845px) 100vw, 845px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 500mb,\u00a0the monsoon ridge\u00a0has two centers; one over western Colorado and the other over southwest New Mexico. A couple of shortwave\u00a0troughs are rotating around the ridge. The trough in western Arizona and eastern California will continue moving north and aid in thunderstorm development in that area; the shortwave to the south in Chihuahua will continue moving west.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"846\" height=\"856\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-092828.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4795\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9883127899217741;width:596px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-092828.png 846w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-092828-296x300.png 296w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-092828-768x777.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 846px) 100vw, 846px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The monsoon ridge is over southwest Colorado at 700mb,\u00a0with three shortwave troughs rotating about the ridge. The two shortwave troughs in central and eastern Mexico will be responsible for thunderstorms\u00a0developing along the spine of the Sierra Madre mountains from the southern border south into Mexico. Moisture remains limited, so MCSs are not expected.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"850\" height=\"857\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-093105.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4796\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9918330963153841;width:576px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-093105.png 850w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-093105-298x300.png 298w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-093105-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-093105-768x774.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 850px) 100vw, 850px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The forecast\u00a0sounding below is from Lukeville, Arizona, for\u00a04:30 pm.\u00a0The skewT\u00a0shows potential for thunderstorms this afternoon in central and western Pima County, with motion to the northeast. Additional development is\u00a0likely\u00a0moving\u00a0to the north into southern Maricopa County as storms\u00a0form on\u00a0outflows. The Flagstaff and Springerville\u00a0soundings are similar to\u00a0yesterday,\u00a0but with less moisture, meaning thunderstorm development across northern\u00a0Arizona is likely again today,\u00a0but they will be more\u00a0isolated.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"703\" height=\"796\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-170.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4797\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.8831739272688991;width:557px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-170.png 703w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-170-265x300.png 265w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 703px) 100vw, 703px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast soundings for Lukeville at 4:30 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The radar reflectivity forecast\u00a0shows that the only organized\u00a0storms are forecast for\u00a0central and western Pima County. However, they dissipate as they move northwest. Even in New Mexico, only isolated storms over the mountains\u00a0are forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"748\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1138 \/ 748;\" width=\"1138\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260821-1646-41.8066142.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity from 12 pm to 2 am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">More storms are expected tomorrow afternoon in Arizona and fewer in New Mexico than in today&#8217;s forecast. Though neither day would we expect\u00a0heavy rain or gusty winds.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"673\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-173-1024x673.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4804\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-173-1024x673.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-173-300x197.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-173-768x505.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-173.png 1141w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity for tomorrow at 5 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 24-hour (below, left) and 48-hour (below, right) total precipitation forecast shows the greatest rainfall totals are predicted in central Pima County and east of Las Cruces, New Mexico, near Alamogordo. The rain is mostly\u00a0over and downwind\u00a0of the mountains.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"332\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-171-1024x332.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4802\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-171-1024x332.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-171-300x97.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-171-768x249.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-171-1536x498.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-171.png 1732w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation (left) and 48-hour accumulation (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As the moisture moves around the ridge, there are some\u00a0storms in northern Arizona on Sunday.\u00a0Also, central and eastern Pima County has the possibility of a strong storm, with wind gusts up to 40 mph.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"670\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-174-1024x670.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4805\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-174-1024x670.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-174-300x196.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-174-768x502.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-174.png 1141w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity for tomorrow at 5 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We remain in a low-grade monsoon\u00a0pattern\u00a0throughout\u00a0next week.\u00a0Storms may increase by the end of the month due to tropical activity, according to long-range global model forecasts (GFS and ECMWF).<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"785\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-172-1024x785.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4803\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-172-1024x785.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-172-300x230.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-172-768x589.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-172.png 1123w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble forecasts of 2-meter temperature (top) and 3-hour accumulated precipitation (bottom), NCAR.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Discussion written by Pat Holbrook and Patrick Bunn<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary Three Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs (TUTT) are moving across the region, and the monsoon ridge is shifting in response to an approaching trough from the West Coast. Satellite images show debris clouds and developing thunderstorms, especially in central and western Pima County. Surface observations indicate a decrease in moisture, but enough remains in northern &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[8],"class_list":["post-4745","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-8"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4745","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4745"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4745\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4809,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4745\/revisions\/4809"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4745"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4745"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4745"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}