{"id":4716,"date":"2026-08-19T17:34:37","date_gmt":"2026-08-19T17:34:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=4716"},"modified":"2026-08-19T17:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-08-19T17:35:32","slug":"august-19th-2026-risk-of-strong-possibly-severe-thunderstorms-with-strong-gusty-winds-locally-heavy-rain-and-blowing-dust-in-both-tucson-and-phoenix-this-afternoon-and-evening-another-roun","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=4716","title":{"rendered":"August 19th, 2026: Risk of strong\u00a0(possibly severe) thunderstorms with strong gusty winds, locally heavy rain, and blowing dust in both Tucson and Phoenix this afternoon and evening. Another round of thunderstorms\u00a0again tomorrow, but not as strong as today."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Gulf Surge has brought increased moisture and higher dewpoints back to Arizona. Morning observations indicate mostly clear skies, and weather balloon observations show increased lower-boundary-layer moisture from the surge and plenty of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) if the Convective Inhibition (CIN) can be overcome by outflows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Today, strong thunderstorm development is possible, particularly in southern Pima and Santa Cruz counties and the Mogollon Rim area. Forecasts show the main threat is strong winds, blowing dust, and possible heavy rain, especially where outflow boundaries collide. Outflows are expected to move into the Tucson and Phoenix metro areas by the evening. While the valleys may see less rain than mountainous areas, conditions remain favorable for continued storm activity through the week, though thunderstorm coverage is expected to decrease by Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Typical of a Gulf Surge, the moisture surge\u00a0into southwest Arizona stalled during the afternoon, but began again overnight. Atypical of the surge is that it also moved up the valleys that extend north\/south from central and western Pima County. The visible satellite and lightning data show thunderstorms in the mountains from Pine, east to Show Low, then eastward into New Mexico. Other thunderstorms were south of the international border from Douglas to Lukeville. It was hot, with the town of Quartzsite topping out at 121\u00b0F.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"824\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1208 \/ 824;\" width=\"1208\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260819-1551-33.4242277.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery with mosaic radar and lightning overlaid from August 18th from 12 pm to 9 pm, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Neither the Maricopa nor Pima County Flood Alert gauges reported rainfall yesterday. South of the border, 0.03&#8243; was reported at San Isidro, which is a few miles east of El Coyote, and 0.01\u201d at Sells on the Tohono O&#8217;odham Nation. The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) are shown below.\u00a0Overall, the forecast precipitation was in good agreement with the observed data.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"340\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-150-1024x340.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-150-1024x340.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-150-300x100.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-150-768x255.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-150-1536x510.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-150.png 1732w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) for August 18th.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The upper-level water vapor satellite image shows three TUTT lows. One is in northwest Mexico south of Douglas, another near Brownsville, Texas, and a third over central Florida. The polar low has moved northeast, and the jet stream enters the California coast near San Francisco and extends north to Oregon.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"567\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-085843-1024x567.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4721\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-085843-1024x567.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-085843-300x166.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-085843-768x425.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-085843.png 1135w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 upper-level water vapor image August 19th at 8 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What the\u00a0difference a Gulf Surge can make, with 60\u00b0F and 70\u00b0F surface dewpoints pushing back into Arizona this morning.\u00a0The 60\u00b0F dewpoint temperatures extend from the Phoenix metro area south to Tucson and Nogales then west into far southeast California.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"579\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-090530-1024x579.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4724\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-090530-1024x579.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-090530-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-090530-768x434.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-090530.png 1408w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Surface weather station observations for Arizona and New Mexico at 7:00 am, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/wrh\/hazards?&amp;zoom=8&amp;scroll_zoom=false&amp;center=32.656025851099066,-110.76888628244107&amp;boundaries=false,true,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&amp;tab=observation&amp;hazard=true&amp;hazard_type=all&amp;hazard_opacity=80&amp;obs=true&amp;obs_type=weather&amp;elements=temp,wind,gust&amp;temp_filter=-80,130&amp;gust_filter=0,150&amp;rh_filter=0,100&amp;elev_filter=-300,14000&amp;precip_filter=0.01,30&amp;obs_popup=false&amp;obs_density=60&amp;obs_provider=ALL\">NWS<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Gulf Surge as seen by the VAD Wind Profile at the Yuma radar this morning.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"722\" height=\"778\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-152.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4725\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-152.png 722w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-152-278x300.png 278w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 722px) 100vw, 722px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Velocity Azimuth Wind Profile from KYUM Yuma radar, from 6:55 am to 8:22 am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The\u00a0visible satellite image at 8 am\u00a0shows only a few clouds across the two-state region.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"678\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-151-1024x678.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4722\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-151-1024x678.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-151-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-151-768x508.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-151.png 1212w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery from August 19th at 8 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z initialization (left) and observed (right) sounding for Phoenix at 5 am are shown below.\u00a0The Gulf Surge moisture was captured well below 850 mb. Mid-level warming at 400 mb is less pronounced today than yesterday, so storms should be\u00a0able to rise to the equilibrium level around 50,000 feet (over 200 mb).<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"582\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-091150-1024x582.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4726\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-091150-1024x582.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-091150-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-091150-768x436.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-091150.png 1396w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z (left) initialization and observed sounding (right) at Phoenix for 5 am this morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 250mb, the high-pressure center is southwest of San Diego, with TUTT lows in north-central Mexico and another near Brownsville.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"842\" height=\"857\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-091811.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4728\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9824944348759481;width:614px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-091811.png 842w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-091811-295x300.png 295w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-091811-768x782.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 842px) 100vw, 842px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 500mb, the monsoon ridge is east\/west oriented from New Mexico across central Arizona to eastern\u00a0California.\u00a0 Several short-wave troughs are rotating west underneath the ridge.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"852\" height=\"855\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-092616.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4727\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9965003711201006;width:616px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-092616.png 852w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-092616-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-092616-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-092616-768x771.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 852px) 100vw, 852px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 700mb,\u00a0the monsoon ridge has two centers, one in southwest Arizona and the other north of Midland, Texas. The three short-wave\u00a0troughs are moving west, and the second one may impact\u00a0Arizona this afternoon and evening\u00a0by enhancing\u00a0thunderstorm\u00a0movement and intensity.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"851\" height=\"857\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-093200.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4729\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9930055913276519;width:624px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-093200.png 851w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-093200-298x300.png 298w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-093200-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-093200-768x773.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 851px) 100vw, 851px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Both the forecast soundings for today for Phoenix at 6:30 pm (left) and Tucson at 5:30 pm (right) suggest thunderstorm development this afternoon is possible if outflow boundaries can overcome the Convective Inhibition in the valleys, which is predicted to be -70 to -80 [J\/kg]. There\u2019s over 1000 [J\/kg] of Convective Available Potential Energy if this is the case.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"574\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-093957-1024x574.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4730\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-093957-1024x574.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-093957-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-093957-768x431.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-19-093957.png 1412w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast soundings for Phoenix at 6:30 pm (left) and Tucson at 5:30 pm (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thunderstorms will develop\u00a0across Santa Cruz and Pima counties this afternoon from 3 to 5 pm, while other storms\u00a0develop in the\u00a0White Mountains and Mogollon Rim. These two sets\u00a0of storms will produce\u00a0strong\u00a0outflows moving into Tucson in the evening, 6 to 9 pm,\u00a0increasing the chance of additional thunderstorm development in Tucson.\u00a0The main threat from the storms is strong gusty winds up to 50\u00a0mph or more\u00a0with blowing dust. Heavy rain can&#8217;t be ruled out depending on where the storms form and\/or where a collision of outflow boundaries occurs.\u00a0In Phoenix, thunderstorms will approach the valley\u00a0during the evening hours with strong winds up to 45 mph,\u00a0and therefore a haboob is possible. As in Tucson, heavy rain can occur depending on colliding outflows, causing additional thunderstorm development not in the forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"570\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1734 \/ 570;\" width=\"1734\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260819-1644-21.2444461.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left) and 10-meter wind speed (right) from 1 pm to 3 am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tomorrow\u2019s forecast is like today\u2019s, and much of what happens in the valleys will depend on how much the atmosphere is worked over by today&#8217;s activity.\u00a0The forecast still has\u00a0storms\u00a0moving\u00a0into the valleys with the same potential for strong\u00a0winds and heavy rain.\u00a0It&#8217;s\u00a0not that we can\u2019t get two up days in a row in the valleys; it is just rare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"564\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1734 \/ 564;\" width=\"1734\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260819-1650-03.9117225.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left) and 10-meter wind speed (right) tomorrow from 1 pm to 2 am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The total precipitation forecast for the next 24 hours (left) and the next 48 hours (right) shows that the Phoenix to Tucson valleys don\u2019t get as much rain as compared to the mountains.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"335\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-153-1024x335.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4736\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-153-1024x335.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-153-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-153-768x251.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-153-1536x502.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-153.png 1735w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation (left) and 48-hour accumulation (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The forecast for Friday shows a slow winding down of thunderstorms in strength and areal coverage, with storms mainly confined to the mountains.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"678\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-155-1024x678.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4739\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-155-1024x678.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-155-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-155-768x508.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-155.png 1135w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity Friday at 4 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Long-range global model forecasts\u00a0show\u00a0the monsoon\u00a0continuing\u00a0through next week.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"817\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-154-1024x817.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4737\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-154-1024x817.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-154-300x240.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-154-768x613.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-154.png 1081w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble forecasts of 2-meter temperature (top) and 3-hour accumulated precipitation (bottom), NCAR.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Discussion written by Pat Holbrook and Patrick Bunn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary A Gulf Surge has brought increased moisture and higher dewpoints back to Arizona. Morning observations indicate mostly clear skies, and weather balloon observations show increased lower-boundary-layer moisture from the surge and plenty of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) if the Convective Inhibition (CIN) can be overcome by outflows. Today, strong thunderstorm development is possible, &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[8],"class_list":["post-4716","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-8"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4716","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4716"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4716\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4743,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4716\/revisions\/4743"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4716"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4716"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4716"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}