{"id":4658,"date":"2026-08-17T17:22:28","date_gmt":"2026-08-17T17:22:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=4658"},"modified":"2026-08-17T17:22:28","modified_gmt":"2026-08-17T17:22:28","slug":"august-17th-2026-some-thunderstorms-with-strong-winds-and-very-little-rain-this-afternoon-and-evening-in-the-tucson-area-tuesday-storms-will-mainly-be-near-the-international-bo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=4658","title":{"rendered":"August 17th, 2026: Some thunderstorms\u00a0with strong winds and very little\u00a0rain this afternoon and evening in the Tucson area; Tuesday, storms will mainly be\u00a0near the international\u00a0border."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The large polar trough and its associated jet stream have moved south in the Pacific, and a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) is shifting toward western Texas and New Mexico. Satellite imagery shows cloud cover over New Mexico and clear skies in Arizona, while regional moisture remains low, with only a few stations reporting higher dew points. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Overnight, outflow from New Mexico storms reached southeast Arizona, but only at the mid-levels. Warm air aloft is limiting the vertical thunderstorm extent, though some mid-level storms may form given the outflow moisture transport, mainly in eastern Pima County and the White Mountains, bringing strong winds but little rain. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The monsoon ridge is re-forming and will gradually shift northeast, bringing more easterly flow to southern Arizona. On Tuesday, thunderstorm chances will stay limited, with activity mainly along the Mogollon Rim and the international border. By Wednesday evening, isolated storms are forecast in Pima County. Monsoon activity is expected to increase again starting Thursday into next week, with daily low temperature variability depending on thunderstorm cooling effects; expect extreme heat until then.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Radar reflectivity from yesterday (forecast left, observation right) shows most of the storms were in New Mexico. Arizona had isolated storms mainly in the mountains along the Mogollon Rim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"560\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1734 \/ 560;\" width=\"1734\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260817-1548-33.5569127.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z radar reflectivity forecast (left) and corresponding observed radar from MRMS (right) for August 16th.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rainlog data shows the paucity of observed rainfall in Arizona. New Mexico precipitation was mainly in the mountains, with El Paso receiving storms moving off the mountains and into the valleys.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/rainlog.org\/map;overlayOpacity=0;lat=33.8938;lng=-109.1824;zoom=6.18\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-132-1024x505.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4661\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-132-1024x505.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-132-300x148.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-132-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-132-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-132.png 1547w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">24-hour precipitation totals from rainlog.org<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) are shown below. Forecast precipitation was in fair agreement with observed precipitation except in far northeast New Mexico, where some of the rainfall pattern and intensity were missed.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"334\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-133-1024x334.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4662\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-133-1024x334.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-133-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-133-768x251.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-133-1536x501.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-133.png 1738w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) for August 16th.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A large trough and the associated jet stream have dropped south in the Pacific Ocean well off the coast of California. A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT), near Big Bend yesterday, is now southeast of El Paso and still moving slowly northwest.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"971\" height=\"565\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-092058.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4666\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-092058.png 971w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-092058-300x175.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-092058-768x447.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 971px) 100vw, 971px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 upper-level water vapor image August 16th at 5 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The visible satellite\u00a0imagery from 8 am this morning shows clouds over New Mexico and nearly clear skies in Arizona.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"532\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-134-1024x532.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4664\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-134-1024x532.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-134-300x156.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-134-768x399.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-134.png 1477w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery from August 17th at 8 am, NWS.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Moisture is very low over the\u00a0AZ\/NM\u00a0region, as only a few stations have 60\u00b0F dew point temperatures. Outflow from storms in New Mexico pushed into southeast Arizona overnight, although it must have been at mid-levels, as no surface reflection is seen. The mid-level outflow was visible on infrared satellite pictures yesterday, and it reached as far west as Tucson (not shown).<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"579\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-090038-1024x579.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4663\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-090038-1024x579.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-090038-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-090038-768x434.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-090038.png 1401w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Surface weather station observations for Arizona and New Mexico at 8:00 am, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/wrh\/hazards?&amp;zoom=8&amp;scroll_zoom=false&amp;center=32.656025851099066,-110.76888628244107&amp;boundaries=false,true,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&amp;tab=observation&amp;hazard=true&amp;hazard_type=all&amp;hazard_opacity=80&amp;obs=true&amp;obs_type=weather&amp;elements=temp,wind,gust&amp;temp_filter=-80,130&amp;gust_filter=0,150&amp;rh_filter=0,100&amp;elev_filter=-300,14000&amp;precip_filter=0.01,30&amp;obs_popup=false&amp;obs_density=60&amp;obs_provider=ALL\">NWS<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z initialization (left) and observed (right) sounding for Phoenix at 5 am show\u00a0warmer air between 400 mb and 500 mb.\u00a0Any thunderstorm\u00a0development will be slowed by\u00a0warm air at this level.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"579\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-092726-1024x579.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4668\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-092726-1024x579.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-092726-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-092726-768x434.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-092726.png 1402w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z (left) initialization and observed sounding (right) at Phoenix for 5 am this morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 250mb, the monsoon ridge is in southern Mississippi and Alabama with a smaller center in Oklahoma. The TUTT\u00a0is further northwest\u00a0than the forecast initialization indicates, and it is interacting with the trough northwest\u00a0of it in western New\u00a0Mexico. Another ridge is in the Pacific Ocean southwest of the\u00a0spur of the Baja Peninsula.\u00a0The two ridges will combine to form a new center over northern Arizona.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"847\" height=\"847\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-093407.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4672\" style=\"width:614px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-093407.png 847w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-093407-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-093407-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-093407-768x768.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 847px) 100vw, 847px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 500mb, the monsoon ridge is in the\u00a0northern\u00a0Gulf of California and another center in Mississippi, with a trough between the two ridges. Through the week, the monsoon\u00a0high will\u00a0move northeast to just south of the Four Corners.\u00a0Flow in southern Arizona will become more easterly.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"846\" height=\"848\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-094000.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4673\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9976444457814775;width:626px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-094000.png 846w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-094000-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-094000-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-094000-768x770.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 846px) 100vw, 846px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The monsoon high is trying to reestablish\u00a0itself near the White Mountains at 700 mb.\u00a0The only significant amount of moisture is over the eastern portion\u00a0of New Mexico.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"855\" height=\"858\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-094231.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4674\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9965003711201006;width:648px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-094231.png 855w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-094231-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-094231-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-094231-768x771.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 855px) 100vw, 855px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Moisture from last night&#8217;s outflow has produced a more favorable environment for mid-level thunderstorm development, though there\u2019s only a\u00a0slight chance of storms given the\u00a0forecast soundings for Tucson (left) and San Simon (right) this afternoon. <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"575\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-094603-1024x575.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4675\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-094603-1024x575.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-094603-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-094603-768x431.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-17-094603.png 1411w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast soundings for Tucson at 6 pm (left) and San Simon at 4:30 pm (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast animation below shows thunderstorms\u00a0developing in the White Mountains and sweeping southwest on strong outflow winds.\u00a0Thunderstorm winds in the Safford\u00a0Valley will be over 50mph. Other storms that develop will also have winds over 40 mph, and a few will be in eastern Pima County, including Tucson.\u00a0These are very high-based thunderstorms, so any precipitation\u00a0will be light.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"562\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1732 \/ 562;\" width=\"1732\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260817-1648-46.0339173.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left) and 10-meter wind speed (right) from 12:30 pm to 11 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tomorrow, thunderstorms will be mostly in the Mogollon Rim and south along the international border. Otherwise, a quieter day.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"677\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-139-1024x677.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4681\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-139-1024x677.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-139-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-139-768x508.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-139.png 1142w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity tomorrow at 5 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wednesday is similar to Monday, with hot surface temperatures and just enough moisture to support thunderstorm development.\u00a0The strongest storms will be in Pima County during the evening hours,\u00a0but heavy rain is not expected, and wind gusts will be less than 40mph.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"335\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-140-1024x335.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4682\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-140-1024x335.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-140-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-140-768x251.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-140-1536x503.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-140.png 1732w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left) and 10-meter wind speed (right) Wednesday at 8 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Long-range global model forecasts show monsoon\u00a0activity ramping back up\u00a0starting Thursday into\u00a0next week. The variability in low temperatures depends on whether a thunderstorm cools\u00a0the atmosphere.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"820\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-138-1024x820.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4680\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-138-1024x820.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-138-300x240.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-138-768x615.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-138.png 1082w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble forecasts of 2-meter temperature (top) and 3-hour accumulated precipitation (bottom), NCAR.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Discussion written by Pat Holbrook and Patrick Bunn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary The large polar trough and its associated jet stream have moved south in the Pacific, and a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) is shifting toward western Texas and New Mexico. Satellite imagery shows cloud cover over New Mexico and clear skies in Arizona, while regional moisture remains low, with only a few stations reporting &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[8],"class_list":["post-4658","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-8"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4658","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4658"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4658\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4684,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4658\/revisions\/4684"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4658"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4658"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4658"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}