{"id":4544,"date":"2026-08-12T18:21:49","date_gmt":"2026-08-12T18:21:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=4544"},"modified":"2026-08-12T20:40:39","modified_gmt":"2026-08-12T20:40:39","slug":"august-12th-2026-heavy-rain-in-northern-arizona-today-phoenix-is-on-the-edge-of-the-area-of-heavy-rain-area-while-scattered-thunderstorms-are-elsewhere-thursday-the-moisture","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=4544","title":{"rendered":"August 12th, 2026: Heavy\u00a0rain\u00a0in\u00a0northern Arizona today; Phoenix is on the edge of the area of heavy rain area, while scattered thunderstorms are elsewhere. Thursday, the\u00a0moisture\u00a0axis shifts into southeast Arizona,\u00a0with Tucson likely to get thunderstorms."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A polar low-pressure system is approaching from the west and converging with the monsoon high-pressure that has been pushed east to Oklahoma. Positive vorticity advection ahead of the low is aiding vertical ascent in northern Arizona, and monsoon moisture continues to flow into Arizona and New Mexico, keeping dewpoints high and supporting thunderstorms with relatively little heating required for storm development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forecasts show that today\u2019s thunderstorm activity will be most concentrated in northern Arizona and northwest New Mexico, with the main threat of flooding in areas like the Mogollon Rim due to slow-moving storms. The heaviest precipitation is expected in northern Arizona and northeast Phoenix, while tomorrow storms will shift toward southeast Arizona, including Tucson. After this period, monsoon moisture is expected to retreat, but moisture will possibly return later in August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The visible satellite image animation from yesterday shows thunderstorms along and north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Gulf Surge moisture also kicked off thunderstorms in southeast California and southern Nevada. The storms were isolated in the western half of New Mexico, staying near the mountains. A large cluster of thunderstorms developed along and south of the international border and moved west overnight, into Cochise and Santa Cruz counties. Heavy rain and strong winds accompanied the storms, with wind gusts over 50 mph and over 2\u201d of rain south of Sierra Vista. Just as important is where it didn\u2019t rain: the deserts from Tucson to Phoenix and west to the Colorado River. No rain fell in the Phoenix metro area, and in Tucson precipitation has been confined to overnight and early morning showers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"820\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1246 \/ 820;\" width=\"1246\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260812-1603-27.2383959.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery from August 12th at 8 am to midnight, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 12Z HRRR-UA WRF radar reflectivity forecast (left) compares well to the observed radar reflectivity (right); the location of convective initiation and downstream development staying out of the lower deserts was well forecast. The overnight-to-morning clouds\/showers are from MCS development in Mexico; they were a little too widespread and intense in yesterday&#8217;s forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"824\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1688 \/ 824;\" width=\"1688\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260812-1605-56.8854302.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity forecast (left) and corresponding MRMS mosaic composite radar reflectivity observations (right) for 1 pm to 9 am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) are shown below.&nbsp;Generally, the forecast was good in the location of the forecast precipitation, but the accumulated amounts were too light. The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) are shown below.&nbsp;Generally, the forecast was good in the location of the forecast precipitation, but the accumulated amounts were too light. Precipitation in northern Mexico and the Mesoscale&nbsp;Convective&nbsp;Systems that have been developing there are often underestimated in forecasts, but with no observations it is likely that the Gulf Surge and thunderstorm outflows are not well represented.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"335\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-101-1024x335.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4548\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-101-1024x335.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-101-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-101-768x251.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-101-1536x502.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-101.png 1732w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) for August 11th.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Observed precipitation from the Pima County Flood Control Alert gauges shows precipitation in the Catalina Mountains and around the edge of Pima County to the east and south.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"797\" height=\"647\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-102.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4551\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-102.png 797w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-102-300x244.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-102-768x623.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 797px) 100vw, 797px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">24-hour precipitation totals from Pima County Regional Flood Control District gauges, <a href=\"https:\/\/alertmap.rfcd.pima.gov\/gmap\/gmap.html\">Alert Map<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs (TUTT) over the CA\/AZ border and in Sonora are moving northward, while the TUTT in the Gulf of California&nbsp;is moving westward. A polar low is in the Pacific Ocean west of Los Angeles. A new TUTT low is in New Mexico and was unanalyzed before today; it\u2019s moving northward.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-091332-1024x683.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4552\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-091332-1024x683.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-091332-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-091332-768x512.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-091332.png 1052w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 upper-level water vapor image August 12th at 8 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The&nbsp;8 am&nbsp;visible&nbsp;satellite imagery overlaid with radar and lightning data shows&nbsp;remnant activity&nbsp;in northwest Arizona, with some showers in the cloud field extending from northwest to southeast Arizona. The storms in northwest Arizona are in a convergence zone between the monsoon ridge&nbsp;to the east and a trough off&nbsp;the west coast. Only small amounts of Convective Available Potential&nbsp;Energy&nbsp;(CAPE)&nbsp;are needed for the storms to develop in this area.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"671\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-103-1024x671.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4553\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-103-1024x671.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-103-300x196.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-103-768x503.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-103.png 1237w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery from August 12th at 8 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Above 50\u00b0F dewpoint temperatures cover the AZ\/NM region, with only a small area in western New Mexico having slightly lower dewpoint temperatures. Monsoon moisture&nbsp;from the Gulf&nbsp;of California is still moving into western Arizona and eastern California&nbsp;due to convergence ahead of the West Coast trough.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-092439-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4554\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-092439-1024x545.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-092439-300x160.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-092439-768x409.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-092439.png 1487w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Surface weather station observations for Arizona and New Mexico at 7:00 am, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/wrh\/hazards?&amp;zoom=8&amp;scroll_zoom=false&amp;center=32.656025851099066,-110.76888628244107&amp;boundaries=false,true,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&amp;tab=observation&amp;hazard=true&amp;hazard_type=all&amp;hazard_opacity=80&amp;obs=true&amp;obs_type=weather&amp;elements=temp,wind,gust&amp;temp_filter=-80,130&amp;gust_filter=0,150&amp;rh_filter=0,100&amp;elev_filter=-300,14000&amp;precip_filter=0.01,30&amp;obs_popup=false&amp;obs_density=60&amp;obs_provider=ALL\">NWS<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Except for some minor differences in the moisture profile below 780mb, both the model initialization (left) and observed SkewT (right) have 44 mm (1.7\u201d) precipitable water values. This \u201ctropical\u201d atmosphere will not require as much heat to get thunderstorms to form.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"582\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-093620-1024x582.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4557\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-093620-1024x582.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-093620-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-093620-768x436.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-093620.png 1392w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z (left) initialization and observed sounding (right) at Phoenix for 5 am this morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 250 mb, the monsoon high pressure has split between a center in the Oklahoma Panhandle and another in Mexico south of El Paso. The two TUTT lows over Baja and the CA\/AZ border are moving north in advance of the trough and have one or&nbsp;two more days&nbsp;providing upper-level support for storms before dissipating.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"850\" height=\"850\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-094613.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4558\" style=\"width:616px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-094613.png 850w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-094613-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-094613-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-094613-768x768.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 850px) 100vw, 850px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 500 mb, the monsoon ridge has been displaced east into Oklahoma, with a convergence zone in western Arizona (black arrow). The flow is more from the south than&nbsp;the easterlies of yesterday. A mesoscale convective vortex associated&nbsp;with last night&#8217;s storms is in Mexico south of Lukeville.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"847\" height=\"850\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-095157.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4559\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9964609770205697;width:618px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-095157.png 847w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-095157-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-095157-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-095157-768x771.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 847px) 100vw, 847px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The monsoon ridge has weakened at 700 mb, but lots of moisture is available. With the combination of afternoon heating and positive vorticity advection convergence, more widespread slow-moving thunderstorms will form, especially in northern Arizona, where the NWS has issued a flash flood watch.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"852\" height=\"856\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-100319.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4560\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9953196135435777;width:644px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-100319.png 852w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-100319-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-100319-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-100319-768x772.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 852px) 100vw, 852px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the Mogollon Rim and northwest Arizona, training of thunderstorms is possible due to weak mean winds from 0- 6 km, and there is a threat&nbsp;of flash flooding.&nbsp;Phoenix is on the edge of the synoptic enhancement of vertical lift from the West Coast trough, and the stronger storms will remain to its north. Both the Phoenix (left) and Tucson forecast soundings (right) for this afternoon show it will not take much heat for thunderstorms today, though they look to be unorganized single-cell systems.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-100814-1024x576.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-100814-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-100814-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-100814-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-100814.png 1408w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast soundings for Phoenix at 2:30 pm (left) and Tucson at 4:30 pm (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 12Z HRRR-UA WRF radar reflectivity forecast shows most of the thunderstorms today will be in northern Arizona and northwest New Mexico. The clouds this morning will limit thunderstorms in southern Arizona today, but some storms will form overnight from Phoenix to Tucson as the convergence area of the trough and monsoon ridge moves east. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"744\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1134 \/ 744;\" width=\"1134\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260812-1720-11.8493888.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity from 2:30 pm to 6:30 am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 12Z&nbsp;HRRR-UA WRF 24-hour&nbsp;precipitation forecast through to 5 am Thursday shows the heaviest precipitation in the northern half of Arizona.&nbsp;The heaviest precipitation is on the Mogollon Rim northeast of Phoenix: &gt;1.5\u201d on the peaks, and &gt;0.5\u201d in the foothills.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"680\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-105-1024x680.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4567\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-105-1024x680.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-105-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-105-768x510.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-105.png 1132w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The moisture axis shifts eastward, and storms will be concentrated in southeast Arizona, including Tucson.&nbsp;Precipitation totals will&nbsp;be up to 0.75\u201d&nbsp;in the valleys and up to&nbsp;1.5\u201d&nbsp;on the mountains. These are probably optimistic, and we\u2019ll need to see if these totals are consistent in tomorrow&#8217;s forecast. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"752\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1134 \/ 752;\" width=\"1134\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260812-1803-19.9253299.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity from tomorrow at 12 pm to 9:30 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After&nbsp;tomorrow&#8217;s storms, monsoon moisture will be pushed out of Arizona from&nbsp;Friday through next Wednesday. It&#8217;s&nbsp;not necessarily the end of&nbsp;the monsoon, though, as moisture returns for the last part of August.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"798\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-106-1024x798.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4572\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-106-1024x798.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-106-300x234.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-106-768x598.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-106.png 1117w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble forecasts of 2-meter dewpoint temperature (top) and 3-hour accumulated precipitation (bottom), NCAR.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Discussion written by Pat Holbrook and Patrick Bunn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary A polar low-pressure system is approaching from the west and converging with the monsoon high-pressure that has been pushed east to Oklahoma. Positive vorticity advection ahead of the low is aiding vertical ascent in northern Arizona, and monsoon moisture continues to flow into Arizona and New Mexico, keeping dewpoints high and supporting thunderstorms with &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[8],"class_list":["post-4544","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-8"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4544","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4544"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4544\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4578,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4544\/revisions\/4578"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4544"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4544"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4544"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}