{"id":4442,"date":"2026-08-09T17:03:17","date_gmt":"2026-08-09T17:03:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=4442"},"modified":"2026-08-09T17:04:44","modified_gmt":"2026-08-09T17:04:44","slug":"august-9th-2026-another-hot-day-across-arizona-with-scattered-thunderstorms-mainly-in-the-mountains-monday-will-see-an-increase-in-strong-thunderstorms-moving-into-the-valleys-and-low-deserts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=4442","title":{"rendered":"August 9th, 2026: Another hot day across Arizona\u00a0with scattered thunderstorms mainly in the mountains. Monday will see an increase in strong thunderstorms moving into the valleys and low deserts."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) over the Gulf of California created a favorable upper-air environment for storm development north\/west of Phoenix yesterday. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate increased moisture in southwest Arizona from another Gulf Surge developing, while New Mexico remains relatively dry. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forecasts show scattered thunderstorms today. Convective Inhibition is underestimated by the forecast initialization compared to the observed sounding in Phoenix this morning, which could be the difference between continued development of storms into the metro area or not. Light showers as the storms dissipate moving west into the valleys are more likely. In central Pima County, outflow-based additional development will overcome the CIN and will be the location of the greatest precipitation accumulations away from the mountains. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stronger and more organized storms possible tomorrow, especially in southern and central Arizona. Rainfall is expected to be heaviest near higher terrain. Additional activity is likely early next week before a return to less active monsoon conditions by the weekend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The monsoon high-pressure ridge moved north to near the Four Corners, providing an easterly wind that pushed thunderstorms off the mountain in northwest Maricopa County near Wickenburg, with rainfall reports shown on the Maricopa County Alert map below. The storms also moved south to I-10 with strong outflow winds reaching 52 mph, and visibility dropped to \u00bc\u00a0mile with blowing dust at Buckeye.\u00a0The storms weakened before reaching the Colorado River near Parker. The 12Z HRRR-UA WRF forecast both the thunderstorms and high winds well. Thanks to Salt River Project for the 12Z upper air sounding, which improved the accuracy of the forecast in central Arizona. Other storms were in the mountains east of Phoenix and Casa Grande. Subsidence due to strong easterly winds in the southern third of Arizona and New Mexico suppressed any storm development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"828\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1248 \/ 828;\" width=\"1248\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260809-1525-55.2578463.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery with GLM lightning overlaid from August 8th at 12 pm to 11 pm, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Observed precipitation totals from the\u00a0Maricopa County Flood Control Alert gauges.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"696\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-73-1024x696.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4446\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-73-1024x696.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-73-300x204.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-73-768x522.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-73.png 1217w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">24-hour precipitation totals from Maricopa County Regional Flood Control District gauges, <a href=\"https:\/\/alert.fcd.maricopa.gov\/alert\/Google\/v3\/gmap.html\">Alert Map<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) are shown below. Except for the precipitation over the northern Gulf of California and the adjacent Baja Peninsula, the observed precipitation\u00a0was in good agreement with the forecast. The precipitation in the Wickenburg area spread a little further south than forecast due to outflows initiating some additional storms.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"337\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-74-1024x337.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4447\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-74-1024x337.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-74-300x99.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-74-768x252.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-74-1536x505.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-74.png 1737w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) for August 8th.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The furthest west Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) moved northward west of the Baja Peninsula, dragging the TUTT to its east further eastward into the Pacific. Another TUTT formed in the last couple of days over the ocean in the Gulf of California; it provided a favorable upper-air\u00a0environment for\u00a0the thunderstorms last night near Wickenburg. The TUTT now over central Mexico\u00a0was in the\u00a0northwest Gulf of Mexico three days ago; this TUTT will move west and then north and may affect Arizona weather Wednesday\/Thursday of this week.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"678\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-083916-1024x678.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4449\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-083916-1024x678.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-083916-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-083916-768x509.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-083916.png 1052w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 upper-level water vapor image August 9th at 8 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The visible satellite picture at 7:30 am shows clouds from last night\u2019s storm in western Arizona along with a few light showers along I-40. Otherwise, mostly clear skies are over the rest of the region.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"700\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-75-1024x700.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4451\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-75-1024x700.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-75-300x205.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-75-768x525.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-75.png 1217w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery from August 9th at 7:30 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Another\u00a0Gulf Surge is increasing moisture in southwest Arizona with 70\u00b0F dew point temperatures already in Yuma. New Mexico remains dry with some sub-40\u00b0F dew point temperatures along the Colorado border.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"531\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-085337-1024x531.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4453\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-085337-1024x531.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-085337-300x156.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-085337-768x399.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-085337.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Surface weather station observations for Arizona and New Mexico at 7:00 am, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/wrh\/hazards?&amp;zoom=8&amp;scroll_zoom=false&amp;center=32.656025851099066,-110.76888628244107&amp;boundaries=false,true,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&amp;tab=observation&amp;hazard=true&amp;hazard_type=all&amp;hazard_opacity=80&amp;obs=true&amp;obs_type=weather&amp;elements=temp,wind,gust&amp;temp_filter=-80,130&amp;gust_filter=0,150&amp;rh_filter=0,100&amp;elev_filter=-300,14000&amp;precip_filter=0.01,30&amp;obs_popup=false&amp;obs_density=60&amp;obs_provider=ALL\">NWS<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The\u00a0observed\u00a0Skew-T\u00a0from Phoenix\u00a0weather balloon launch at\u00a05\u00a0am shows a layer in the annotated box that has cooled because of thunderstorm outflow or the Gulf Surge. The\u00a0forecast\u00a0initialization has this layer\u00a0too warm, and it reduces more than 100\u00a0[J\/kg]\u00a0of Convective Inhibition in the Phoenix area. The observed CIN is \u2013300 [J\/kg] mixed-layer and -600 surface-layer, and this could be the difference between storms getting into the valley or staying in the mountains.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"580\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-090036-1-1024x580.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4455\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-090036-1-1024x580.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-090036-1-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-090036-1-768x435.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-090036-1.png 1395w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z (left) initialization and observed sounding (right) at Phoenix for 5 am this morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 250 mb, the TUTT over central Mexico is further west than indicated on the forecast initialization. But in the short term, this will not affect the forecast in the Arizona\/New Mexico region.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"850\" height=\"856\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-090636.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4458\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9929860318048522;width:606px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-090636.png 850w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-090636-298x300.png 298w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-090636-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-090636-768x773.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 850px) 100vw, 850px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 500mb, two short-wave troughs are rotating underneath the monsoon ridge, with the one in southeast New Mexico moving into eastern Arizona this evening. Some cooler air is also filtering into central and southern Arizona from New Mexico.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"842\" height=\"857\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-091048.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4459\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9824944348759481;width:590px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-091048.png 842w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-091048-295x300.png 295w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-091048-768x782.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 842px) 100vw, 842px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 700mb, the monsoon flow is well established underneath the ridge. A short-wave trough is dropping southeast into Kansas and the panhandle of Texas.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"857\" height=\"852\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-091352.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4460\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.0058675901776006;width:610px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-091352.png 857w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-091352-300x298.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-091352-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-091352-768x764.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 857px) 100vw, 857px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Persistent\u00a0strong easterly winds are at around 500mb, which will delay thunderstorm development in the valleys until the evening in southeast Arizona.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"578\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-092953-1024x578.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4462\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-092953-1024x578.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-092953-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-092953-768x434.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-092953.png 1408w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast soundings for Phoenix at 4:30 pm (left) and Tucson at 3 pm (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The forecast radar\u00a0reflectivity\u00a0below shows an increase in thunderstorms in Arizona today, but storms are scattered and not organized. Strong outflows will aid storm development away from the mountains in central Pima County, just south of I-8. Storms approach Phoenix, but dissipate to light showers before reaching the metro area. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"564\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1732 \/ 564;\" width=\"1732\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260809-1633-33.7672792.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left) and 10-meter wind speed (right) from 2 pm to 3 am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tomorrow is a much better profile for an increase in thunderstorms that will approach or exceed severe levels across the southern and central Arizona. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"572\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-094141-1024x572.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4466\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-094141-1024x572.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-094141-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-094141-768x429.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-09-094141.png 1414w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast soundings for Phoenix tomorrow at 5:30 pm (left) and Tucson at 3 pm (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although the forecasts show unorganized storms at this point, storms will move into Casa Grande and Phoenix by late afternoon and evening with the potential for high winds and heavy rain. This morning\u2019s forecast for tomorrow does not show heavy rain in Phoenix, but the storms are close enough that colliding outflows can generate storms not currently in the\u00a0forecast that could hit Phoenix. Storms will develop in central and western Cochise County\u00a0in the evening and move into Tucson around 9 pm.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"570\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1736 \/ 570;\" width=\"1736\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260809-1644-38.2647612.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left) and 10-meter wind speed (right) from 3 pm to 5 am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 24-hour accumulated precipitation shows greatest totals near areas of higher terrain, compared to the 48-hour (right), which shows additional rainfall in the same areas and accumulations >0.5&#8243; east of Phoenix and southern Pima and Santa Cruz counties by Tuesday morning. <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"338\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-77-1024x338.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4469\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-77-1024x338.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-77-300x99.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-77-768x254.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-77-1536x507.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-77.png 1732w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"> HRRR-UA WRF 24-hour (left) and 48-hour accumulated precipitation forecasts<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The forecast radar reflectivity below suggests that the boundary layer in the valleys and low deserts will be cooled too much by activity on Monday, meaning storms should remain in the mountains.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"678\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-76-1024x678.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4468\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-76-1024x678.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-76-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-76-768x509.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-76.png 1135w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity forecast for Tuesday at 3 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The long-range global model ensemble forecasts show next week is predicted to be more active, though by the weekend we will be back to low-grade monsoon.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"811\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-78-1024x811.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4471\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-78-1024x811.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-78-300x238.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-78-768x608.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-78.png 1082w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble forecasts of 2-meter temperature (top) and 3-hour accumulated precipitation (bottom), NCAR.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Discussion written by Pat Holbrook and Patrick Bunn<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) over the Gulf of California created a favorable upper-air environment for storm development north\/west of Phoenix yesterday. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate increased moisture in southwest Arizona from another Gulf Surge developing, while New Mexico remains relatively dry. Forecasts show scattered thunderstorms today. Convective Inhibition is underestimated &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[8],"class_list":["post-4442","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-8"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4442","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4442"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4442\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4476,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4442\/revisions\/4476"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4442"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4442"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4442"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}