{"id":4371,"date":"2026-08-07T17:46:45","date_gmt":"2026-08-07T17:46:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=4371"},"modified":"2026-08-07T17:47:56","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T17:47:56","slug":"august-7th-2026-scattered-afternoon-and-evening-thunderstorms-are-expected-over-the-next-few-days-in-tucson-best-chances-for-phoenix-and-the-low-deserts-to-its-west-are-on-saturday","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=4371","title":{"rendered":"August 7th, 2026: Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected over the next few days in Tucson. Best chances for Phoenix and the low deserts to its west\u00a0are on Saturday."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Upper-level water vapor satellite analyses show a TUTT low moving northwest along the Baja coast, interacting with Gulf Surge moisture to create favorable conditions for storm development in Mexico over the last few days. However, the Gulf Surge has ended, leading to a gradual decline in thunderstorm activity over Arizona and New Mexico, although storms will persist for a few days, especially in higher elevations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forecast soundings indicate limited potential for storms in Phoenix and Tucson today, with only isolated storms likely in mountainous areas and possible outflow-driven storms in the Tucson area. Storms are expected to move westward tomorrow, potentially bringing rain to the Phoenix area and on to the Colorado River. Precipitation will generally be light in the lower deserts, with heavier amounts in higher terrain. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By Sunday, thunderstorms will again remain near the mountains, and the Phoenix area may see less activity due to previous cooling. Longer-range forecasts suggest continued day-to-day variability typical of the monsoon season, but precipitation chances remain low for Tucson in the near term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Strong thunderstorms developed in the mountains in northwest Arizona near Kingman, extending southeast to Payson, using Gulf Surge moisture that pushed north into Nevada. Lighter thunderstorms developed southeast\u00a0into the White Mountains and down to El Paso, and some more thunderstorms were in the mountains of eastern New Mexico. Some storms developed in southeast\u00a0Arizona, Cochise County, around the Dragoon Mountains and moved south to the Mexican border. Southwest Arizona stayed clear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"822\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1308 \/ 822;\" width=\"1308\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260807-1543-22.6134714.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery with GLM lightning overlaid from August 6th at 12 pm to midnight, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The infrared\/lightning satellite imagery at 8 pm last night\u00a0shows thunderstorms in southeast Cochise County to the boot heel of New Mexico; they moved southwest and developed into an MCS. The Douglas Airport reported a 68-mph wind gust at 9 pm. The MCS moved west with the northern edge skirting the international border, reaching Nogales by 2 am.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"544\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 824 \/ 544;\" width=\"824\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260807-1547-17.4044009.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 infrared satellite imagery with GLM lightning overlaid from August 6th at 9 pm to 6 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">MRMS precipitation observation data (below, right) showed the heaviest rain was associated with the Gulf Surge moisture becoming lighter in eastern Arizona and New Mexico. Phoenix and Tucson metro areas were generally free from rain.\u00a0The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (below, left) shows that, except for an underestimation in northwest Cochise County and south of the border associated with the MCS, observed\u00a0precipitation amounts and location were generally in good agreement over Arizona and New Mexico.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"335\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-58-1024x335.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4376\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-58-1024x335.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-58-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-58-768x251.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-58-1536x503.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-58.png 1732w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) for August 6th.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The water vapor satellite image from 8 am this morning shows the movement of a TUTT low as it moved northwestward paralleling the Baja coast over the last three days (shown by smaller \u201cL\u201ds). This TUTT low aided MCS\/MCC development in Mexico as it combined with Gulf Surge moisture that was moving northward. The combination of Gulf Surge moisture and the TUTT low creates a favorable upper air environment for an MCS to develop in. There\u2019s another TUTT low to its southwest, and their respective flows are interacting.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1022\" height=\"630\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-090248-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4384\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-090248-1.png 1022w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-090248-1-300x185.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-090248-1-768x473.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1022px) 100vw, 1022px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 upper-level water vapor image August 7th at 8 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The visible satellite image from 8 am shows only a few showers near Las Vegas, NM. Otherwise,\u00a0only a scattered amount of mid and high-level clouds are\u00a0present.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"637\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-59-1024x637.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4380\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-59-1024x637.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-59-300x187.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-59-768x478.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-59.png 1277w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery from August 7th at 8 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 60\u00b0F dewpoint temperature line has retreated to the south across central and southeast Arizona, and the 50\u00b0F dewpoint temperature has also retreated across northeast Arizona and New Mexico.\u00a0More importantly, Gulf Surge has ended. This does not mean an immediate decline in thunderstorm activity, but a slow decline will happen over the next few days.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"529\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-091027-1024x529.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4382\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-091027-1024x529.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-091027-300x155.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-091027-768x397.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-091027.png 1522w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Surface weather station observations for Arizona and New Mexico at 7:00 am, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/wrh\/hazards?&amp;zoom=8&amp;scroll_zoom=false&amp;center=32.656025851099066,-110.76888628244107&amp;boundaries=false,true,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&amp;tab=observation&amp;hazard=true&amp;hazard_type=all&amp;hazard_opacity=80&amp;obs=true&amp;obs_type=weather&amp;elements=temp,wind,gust&amp;temp_filter=-80,130&amp;gust_filter=0,150&amp;rh_filter=0,100&amp;elev_filter=-300,14000&amp;precip_filter=0.01,30&amp;obs_popup=false&amp;obs_density=60&amp;obs_provider=ALL\">NWS<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 12Z\u00a0HRRR-UA\u00a0WRF\u00a0forecast\u00a0initialization vs the observed sounding from Phoenix at 5 am shows a 5 mm (0.2\u201d) underestimation in\u00a0precipitable water\u00a0through the atmosphere\u00a0in the 12Z initialization versus the observed value, especially in the layer between 900 and 780 mb.\u00a0We&#8217;re\u00a0inclined to think that the initialization is the more representative value as it&#8217;s more consistent\u00a0with the surface dewpoint analysis\u00a0above.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"580\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-091622-1024x580.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4383\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-091622-1024x580.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-091622-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-091622-768x435.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-091622.png 1404w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z (left) initialization and observed sounding (right) at Phoenix for 5 am this morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 250 mb, the low west of Baja and its associated wind flow are positioned incorrectly. The numerical weather prediction models\u00a0have merged the two TUTT lows shown on the water vapor satellite above into one broad low. In actuality, the two TUTT lows are moving around a common midpoint. This is known as the Fujiwhara effect, named after the Japanese meteorologist Sakuhei Fujiwhara. It&#8217;s difficult to determine if this will significantly affect the forecast.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"842\" height=\"847\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-094606.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4387\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9941024429929428;width:606px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-094606.png 842w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-094606-298x300.png 298w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-094606-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-094606-768x773.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 842px) 100vw, 842px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Two short waves are rotating around the bottom of the monsoon high-pressure ridge at 500mb, which has now moved to southern Utah.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"852\" height=\"852\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-095355.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4388\" style=\"width:618px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-095355.png 852w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-095355-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-095355-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-095355-768x768.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 852px) 100vw, 852px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 700mb,\u00a0another shortwave trough is at this level\u00a0in the Big Bend area; each is about a day apart in travel time. So the trough in the Big Bend may affect Arizona tomorrow, while the one in eastern Arizona will affect us today.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"852\" height=\"855\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-60.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4389\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9965003711201006;width:622px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-60.png 852w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-60-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-60-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-60-768x771.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 852px) 100vw, 852px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Phoenix forecast sounding for 5 pm (below, left) does not have enough Convective Available Potential Energy\u00a0(CAPE) to overcome Convective Inhibition\u00a0(CIN).\u00a0Tucson\u00a0has a similar problem, but storms will form on the mountains, and thunderstorm outflow could produce isolated storms in the metro area.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-100629-1024x576.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4395\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-100629-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-100629-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-100629-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-100629.png 1409w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast soundings for Phoenix (left) and Tucson at 7 pm (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 12Z HRRR-UA WRF (left) shows some storms moving into the southern part of the Tucson metro in the late evening, followed by a storm moving\u00a0into southeast Pinal County after sunset, crossing I-10. The 15Z HRRR-UA WRF (right) is similar, but\u00a0does not show storms\u00a0as far north as the 12Z forecast.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"566\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1734 \/ 566;\" width=\"1734\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260807-1711-39.1056305.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF simulated radar reflectivity 12Z (left) and 15Z (right) 2 pm to 4:30 am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tomorrow afternoon is like today except for the timing of the storms.\u00a0The forecast below is for 3 pm,\u00a0two hours earlier than the\u00a0forecast of peak activity\u00a0for today. Thunderstorms move west to the Colorado River by midnight. The Phoenix metro area and the rest of Maricopa County\u00a0may also get rain.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"332\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-62-1024x332.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4400\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-62-1024x332.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-62-300x97.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-62-768x249.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-62-1536x498.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-62.png 1732w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left) and 10-meter wind speed (right) for tomorrow at 3 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The forecast 48-hour precipitation accumulation shows light totals (&lt;0.5&#8243;) in the lower deserts of SE Arizona, with only the higher terrain and surrounding areas getting more (>0.5&#8243;). If the storms move west in Maricopa County and continue to develop toward the Colorado River, they could also drop >0.5&#8243; of rain.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"681\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-63-1024x681.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4402\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-63-1024x681.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-63-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-63-768x511.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-63.png 1135w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 48-hour accumulated precipitation through to 5 am Sunday morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For southern Arizona on Sunday, there is not much change in the afternoon and evening thunderstorms, but the storms will stay near the mountains\u00a0in Tucson. The Phoenix area may see a down day on Sunday due to cooling from Saturday night&#8217;s storms.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-64-1024x682.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4406\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-64-1024x682.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-64-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-64-768x511.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-64.png 1137w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF simulated radar reflectivity 12Z for Sunday at 9 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The long-range global model ensemble forecasts show\u00a0typical day-to-day variability with the monsoon, though with low chances of precipitation at the Tucson airport for the next three days. Maybe next week will be better.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"821\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-61-1024x821.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4393\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-61-1024x821.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-61-300x240.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-61-768x615.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-61.png 1082w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble forecasts of 2-meter temperature (top) and 3-hour accumulated precipitation (bottom), NCAR.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Discussion written by Pat Holbrook and Patrick Bunn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary Upper-level water vapor satellite analyses show a TUTT low moving northwest along the Baja coast, interacting with Gulf Surge moisture to create favorable conditions for storm development in Mexico over the last few days. However, the Gulf Surge has ended, leading to a gradual decline in thunderstorm activity over Arizona and New Mexico, although &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[8],"class_list":["post-4371","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-8"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4371","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4371"}],"version-history":[{"count":18,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4371\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4408,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4371\/revisions\/4408"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4371"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4371"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4371"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}