{"id":4334,"date":"2026-08-06T17:56:07","date_gmt":"2026-08-06T17:56:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=4334"},"modified":"2026-08-06T17:58:26","modified_gmt":"2026-08-06T17:58:26","slug":"august-6th-2026-storms-form-in-the-mountains-this-afternoon-but-will-not-move-into-the-valleys","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=4334","title":{"rendered":"August 6th, 2026: Storms form in the mountains this afternoon but will not move into the valleys."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Surface moisture remains elevated over southern Arizona due to the Gulf Surge and outflow from storms in Mexico, with higher dewpoints reaching into Nevada. Ambient surface temperatures are cooler, but there has been little overall change in moisture distribution. The monsoon high-pressure ridge has shifted slightly eastward, while low pressure from the MCS in Mexico lingers over the northern Gulf of California. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite moisture in the region, convective inhibition (CIN) will most likely prevent thunderstorms from reaching the valleys today, keeping areas like Phoenix and Tucson dry, though storms will develop in the mountains. Tomorrow, precipitation is expected to decrease further, with storms likely remaining in the mountain foothills rather than reaching metro areas. However, an easterly wave may bring more widespread storms to Arizona and New Mexico on Saturday, before a return to a subdued monsoon pattern next week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The visible satellite and lightning data\u00a0animation shows\u00a0thunderstorms on the Mogollon Rim looking interesting at 6 pm, but there was not enough southwest push to get the storms into Phoenix.\u00a0The storms in southeast Arizona were isolated, producing some severe wind gusts and blowing dust, while activity in northern Mexico was the main weather maker for southeast Arizona.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"640\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 854 \/ 640;\" width=\"854\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260806-1535-08.4949975.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery with GLM lightning overlaid from August 5th at 12 pm to 2 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By 9\u00a0pm, the infrared satellite and lightning picture show the explosion of storms across southeast Arizona. About 45 minutes\u00a0later, Pat\u00a0was chasing\u00a0his trash cans down the road that were being pushed by an estimated 70 mph wind gust. The storms still did not move too far northwest, with only sprinkles in Marana. Just like the night before, the gust and dust from the storms moved up I-10, reaching\u00a0Phoenix\u00a0around 1 am,\u00a0where the airport recorded 49 mph wind gusts along with a trace of rain.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"877\" height=\"565\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-47.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4344\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-47.png 877w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-47-300x193.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-47-768x495.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 877px) 100vw, 877px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 infrared satellite imagery with GLM lightning overlaid from August 5th at 9 pm, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Below is the Pima County Alert map showing the precipitation totals and flood advisories in blue shading. The Brawley Wash at Three Points peaked at 12.59 feet overnight.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"892\" height=\"765\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-48.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4346\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-48.png 892w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-48-300x257.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-48-768x659.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 892px) 100vw, 892px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">24-hour precipitation totals from Pima County Regional Flood Control District gauges, <a href=\"https:\/\/alertmap.rfcd.pima.gov\/gmap\/gmap.html\">Alert Map<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Rainlog data below shows the heaviest rain in southeast Pima, Santa Cruz, and the southern half of Cochise County.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"668\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-49-1024x668.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4347\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-49-1024x668.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-49-300x196.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-49-768x501.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-49.png 1197w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">24-hour precipitation totals from Rainlog, <a href=\"https:\/\/rainlog.org\/map;overlayOpacity=0;lat=31.9779;lng=-110.4134;zoom=8.09\">Rainlog.org<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) are shown below. The forecast did not handle the MCS in Mexico; thus, there was a forecast underestimation of rainfall to the south of the international border and into southern Arizona.\u00a0The storm that was forecast to move into the Phoenix area from the Mogollon Rim dissipated before reaching the metro area.\u00a0Storms did not fire on the mountains surrounding Tucson as forecast,\u00a0with only the MCS moving in from Mexico\u00a0causing\u00a0significant rain\/severe weather in the Tucson region.\u00a0This is technically another forecast bust and again highlights the forecast models&#8217; misunderstanding of the vertical profile of the atmosphere in Tucson.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"336\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-50-1024x336.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4348\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-50-1024x336.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-50-300x99.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-50-768x252.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-50-1536x505.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-50.png 1735w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) for August 5th.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The visible satellite\u00a0image from this morning at 8:30 am\u00a0shows the remains of the MCS near Puerto Pe\u00f1asco moving west. This image is very similar\u00a0to the satellite picture from yesterday morning.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"627\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-51-1024x627.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4349\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-51-1024x627.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-51-300x184.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-51-768x470.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-51.png 1302w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery overlaid from August 6th at 8 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Gulf Surge and outflow from the MCS in Mexico are keeping surface moisture above 60\u00b0F over southern Arizona, and the higher dewpoints have moved up to Nevada. Only the Colorado Plateau and north-central New Mexico have dewpoints below 50\u00b0F. Otherwise,\u00a0there has not been much change in moisture. Ambient temperatures are cooler due to the outflow from the southern Arizona storms.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"544\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-092108-1024x544.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4353\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-092108-1024x544.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-092108-300x159.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-092108-768x408.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-092108.png 1492w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Surface weather station observations for Arizona and New Mexico at 7:00 am, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/wrh\/hazards?&amp;zoom=8&amp;scroll_zoom=false&amp;center=32.656025851099066,-110.76888628244107&amp;boundaries=false,true,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&amp;tab=observation&amp;hazard=true&amp;hazard_type=all&amp;hazard_opacity=80&amp;obs=true&amp;obs_type=weather&amp;elements=temp,wind,gust&amp;temp_filter=-80,130&amp;gust_filter=0,150&amp;rh_filter=0,100&amp;elev_filter=-300,14000&amp;precip_filter=0.01,30&amp;obs_popup=false&amp;obs_density=60&amp;obs_provider=ALL\">NWS<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The\u00a012Z\u00a0HRRR-UA\u00a0WRF\u00a0forecast\u00a0initialization and the observed sounding from Phoenix at 5 am are similar\u00a0today. The Convective Inhibition (CIN) is about the same as yesterday. The bulge of moisture between 750 mb and 900 mb was due to thunderstorm outflow from storms in Southern Arizona yesterday.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"579\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-092420-1024x579.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4354\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-092420-1024x579.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-092420-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-092420-768x434.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-092420.png 1407w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z (left) initialization and observed sounding (right) at Phoenix for 5 am this morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 250mb, the monsoon high-pressure ridge has pushed a little further east and is now centered over Douglas. A short-wave trough is moving east\u00a0into the Midwest, and another shortwave trough, well south of the Big Bend, is moving clockwise around the ridge.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"847\" height=\"856\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-094212.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4356\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9894769717628769;width:610px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-094212.png 847w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-094212-297x300.png 297w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-094212-768x776.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 847px) 100vw, 847px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The low pressure associated with the MCS in Mexico yesterday is seen at the 500mb level over the northern Gulf of California,\u00a0and it continues to move west.\u00a0The\u00a0monsoon ridge is elongated, and it\u00a0extends from northwest Arizona to northwest New Mexico.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"842\" height=\"852\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-094623.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4357\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9882546669292905;width:614px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-094623.png 842w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-094623-296x300.png 296w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-094623-768x777.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 842px) 100vw, 842px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 700 mb, the MCS is vertically aligned with the 500 mb and 250 mb centers, all in about the same location over Baja California. Another easterly wave is in west Texas and will move west and may affect Arizona weather\u00a0on Saturday.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"850\" height=\"857\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-095526.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4358\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9918330963153841;width:632px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-095526.png 850w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-095526-298x300.png 298w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-095526-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-095526-768x774.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 850px) 100vw, 850px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Both the Phoenix and Tucson forecast soundings for 7 pm\u00a0have too much CIN to get thunderstorms into the valleys today, due to outflows\u00a0cooling from last night&#8217;s storms. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"574\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-100113-1024x574.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4359\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-100113-1024x574.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-100113-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-100113-768x430.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-06-100113.png 1414w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast soundings for Phoenix (left) and Tucson at 7 pm (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The\u00a012Z\u00a0HRRR-UA\u00a0WRF forecast radar shows thunderstorms form in the mountains by 6 pm.\u00a0There is too much CIN in the valleys for storms to develop there, and winds aloft are pushing storms on the Mogollon Rim north and in storms forming in southeast Arizona northwest. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"742\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1130 \/ 742;\" width=\"1130\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260806-1736-01.8949239.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF simulated radar reflectivity 12Z 2 pm to 5 am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The forecast total precipitation through 5 am tomorrow shows the Phoenix\/Tucson areas remain\u00a0dry.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"672\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-54-1024x672.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4361\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-54-1024x672.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-54-300x197.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-54-768x504.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-54.png 1137w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z accumulated precipitation through to 5 am Monday morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tomorrow, there is an overall decrease in precipitation in Arizona. Although the forecast indicates storms move into Tucson, it\u2019s more likely they will only reach the foothills\u00a0of both the Catalina and Rincon mountains rather than the metro area.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-55-1024x683.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4363\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-55-1024x683.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-55-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-55-768x512.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-55.png 1132w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF simulated radar reflectivity 12Z tomorrow at 6 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A few more storms are possible on Saturday due to the easterly wave that moves into AZ\/NM from Texas. These storms have a better chance of moving into both the Phoenix and Tucson valleys.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"684\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-56-1024x684.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4365\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-56-1024x684.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-56-300x201.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-56-768x513.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-56.png 1137w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF simulated radar reflectivity 12Z for Saturday at 5 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The long-range ensemble forecasts show we&#8217;re back to a low-grade monsoon until next week.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"821\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-57-1024x821.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4367\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-57-1024x821.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-57-300x241.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-57-768x616.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-57.png 1080w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble forecasts of 2-meter temperature (top) and 3-hour accumulated precipitation (bottom), NCAR.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Discussion written by Pat Holbrook and Patrick Bunn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary Surface moisture remains elevated over southern Arizona due to the Gulf Surge and outflow from storms in Mexico, with higher dewpoints reaching into Nevada. Ambient surface temperatures are cooler, but there has been little overall change in moisture distribution. The monsoon high-pressure ridge has shifted slightly eastward, while low pressure from the MCS in &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[8],"class_list":["post-4334","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-8"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4334","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4334"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4334\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4370,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4334\/revisions\/4370"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4334"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4334"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4334"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}