{"id":4260,"date":"2026-08-04T18:10:51","date_gmt":"2026-08-04T18:10:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=4260"},"modified":"2026-08-05T16:34:31","modified_gmt":"2026-08-05T16:34:31","slug":"august-4th-2026-severe-storms-with-strong-winds-and-heavy-rain-are-possible-in-tucson-this-afternoon-and-evening-gusty-winds-and-dust-will-push-into-phoenix-by-the-evening","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=4260","title":{"rendered":"August 4th, 2026: Severe storms with strong winds and heavy rain are possible in Tucson\u00a0this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds and dust will push into Phoenix by the evening"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Surface dewpoint temperatures have increased above 60\u00b0F in the low deserts due to a moisture surge from the Gulf of California and thunderstorm outflows. The observed sounding from Phoenix indicates a persistent moist layer above 500mb, but the associated cooling from the Gulf Surge and outflows has raised Convective Inhibition, making it difficult for storms to form solely from surface heating. The monsoon high-pressure system remains largely stationary across Arizona and New Mexico, with strong winds and some dry air entering eastern Arizona. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Today&#8217;s forecast predicts intense thunderstorms, particularly in southeastern Arizona, with high rainfall rates, small hail, and strong outflows, especially around Tucson. Rainfall totals in Tucson could reach up to 0.6 inches. Storms are expected to weaken as they move west toward Phoenix, bringing lighter showers and gusty winds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thunderstorms will form again tomorrow, though their westward extent will be limited due to today&#8217;s activity. The monsoon pattern remains steady, with storm activity likely to decrease by the weekend before potentially increasing again next week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yesterday, southeast Arizona experienced severe weather, mostly wind reports and one large hail report in southwest New Mexico.&nbsp;The highest winds reported were at Sunizona (88 mph) and Tucson Airport (71 mph). The low deserts are still moisture-starved, as dewpoint temperatures were below 50\u00b0F, though Gulf Surge moisture reached central and western Pima County, where the largest thunderstorms occurred. The gust front from the Pima County thunderstorms moved into Maricopa County after 10 pm with wind gusts below 50 mph.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"822\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1222 \/ 822;\" width=\"1222\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260804-1601-15.6691839.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 infrared satellite imagery from August 3rd, from 6 am to 8 pm, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pima County Flood Control alert system data shows trace amounts to 0.35\u201d south of Tucson. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"875\" height=\"772\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-24.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4263\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-24.png 875w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-24-300x265.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-24-768x678.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 875px) 100vw, 875px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">24-hour precipitation totals from Pima County Regional Flood Control District gauges, <a href=\"https:\/\/alertmap.rfcd.pima.gov\/gmap\/gmap.html\">Alert Map<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rainlog gauges show greater totals in SE Arizona, up to 2&#8243; south of Benson down to Sierra Vista.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"586\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-25-1024x586.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4264\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-25-1024x586.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-25-300x172.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-25-768x439.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-25.png 1262w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">24-hour precipitation totals from Rainlog, <a href=\"https:\/\/rainlog.org\/map;overlayOpacity=0;lat=31.9779;lng=-110.4134;zoom=8.09\">Rainlog.org<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) are shown below.&nbsp;The forecast precipitation location was good, except for central Pima County.&nbsp;The intensity was underestimated in Cochise, Santa Cruz, and parts of Pima County. The precipitation forecast in Pima County, including Tucson, was accurate.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"335\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-26-1024x335.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4265\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-26-1024x335.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-26-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-26-768x251.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-26-1536x502.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-26.png 1732w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) for August 3rd.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Base level velocity (below) from the Tucson KMEX Doppler Radar at 9:09 pm shows a possible tornado. The red shading is winds going away from the radar, and the green is winds going towards the radar. There is weak rotation, but since it&#8217;s so far away from the radar and the scan is less reliable at this distance, a tornado warning was justified. It will be hard to verify since the Tohono O\u2019odham Nation is sparsely populated, but we did have one tornado there in the late 90s that was verified by the NWS.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1022\" height=\"552\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-29.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4269\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-29.png 1022w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-29-300x162.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-29-768x415.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1022px) 100vw, 1022px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Doppler radar reflections from Tucson KMEX at 9:09 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The visible satellite image at 8 am overlaid with radar reflectivity, shows clouds in central Pima County with a few light showers southeast of Phoenix moving west. The drops that&nbsp;are reaching the ground may get into the Phoenix metro area by mid-morning, then dissipate in the early afternoon.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"665\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-27-1024x665.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4267\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-27-1024x665.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-27-300x195.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-27-768x499.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-27.png 1235w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery with GLM lightning and composite radar overlaid from August 5th at 8 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dewpoint temperatures in the low deserts have increased to 60\u00b0F+ from surge moisture and&nbsp;thunderstorm&nbsp;outflows.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"547\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-095646-1024x547.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4272\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-095646-1024x547.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-095646-300x160.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-095646-768x410.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-095646.png 1483w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Surface weather station observations for Arizona and New Mexico at 7:00 am, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/wrh\/hazards?&amp;zoom=8&amp;scroll_zoom=false&amp;center=32.656025851099066,-110.76888628244107&amp;boundaries=false,true,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&amp;tab=observation&amp;hazard=true&amp;hazard_type=all&amp;hazard_opacity=80&amp;obs=true&amp;obs_type=weather&amp;elements=temp,wind,gust&amp;temp_filter=-80,130&amp;gust_filter=0,150&amp;rh_filter=0,100&amp;elev_filter=-300,14000&amp;precip_filter=0.01,30&amp;obs_popup=false&amp;obs_density=60&amp;obs_provider=ALL\">NWS<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z initialization (left) and the&nbsp;observed&nbsp;sounding from Phoenix at 5 am (right) show&nbsp;a moist layer just above 500mb&nbsp;where the showers this morning&nbsp;formed. Rain has to fall 18,000 feet&nbsp;to get to the surface! Otherwise, the&nbsp;inversion at 420mb is better represented compared to yesterday.&nbsp;But what is missing from the initialization is the cooling below 700mb caused by the Gulf Surge and thunderstorm&nbsp;outflow. This has increased the Convective Inhibition (CIN) to&nbsp;over \u2013500 [J\/kg],&nbsp;which can&#8217;t be overcome with surface heating today.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"581\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-100016-1024x581.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4274\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-100016-1024x581.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-100016-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-100016-768x435.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-100016.png 1397w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z (left) initialization and observed sounding (right) at Phoenix for 5 am this morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 250mb,&nbsp;the monsoon high-pressure has moved very little. It\u2019s&nbsp;being squeezed by the jet stream to the north and from the south by what is left of the short-wave trough, now in Mexico.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"842\" height=\"851\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-100745.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4277\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9894187117619643;width:604px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-100745.png 842w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-100745-297x300.png 297w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-100745-768x776.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 842px) 100vw, 842px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The monsoon high-pressure system is elongated across New Mexico and Arizona at 500 mb, with strong easterly winds below the high and the jet stream to&nbsp;the north.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"847\" height=\"857\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-101159.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4279\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9883321657719353;width:632px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-101159.png 847w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-101159-296x300.png 296w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-101159-768x777.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 847px) 100vw, 847px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 700 mb, there\u2019s not much change in the location of the monsoon high-pressure center since yesterday, although some dry air is filtering into eastern Arizona.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"852\" height=\"850\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-101603.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4282\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.002346773983277;width:638px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-101603.png 852w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-101603-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-101603-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-101603-768x766.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 852px) 100vw, 852px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The forecast soundings for Tucson (below, left) and Nogales (below, right) this afternoon have similar Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) to yesterday, slightly more if anything. Storms will have no problem forming in the mountains, and they will continue to develop in the Tucson metro due to outflows; the high downward CAPE values (&gt;1700 [J\/kg]) will produce outflows over 50 mph again. Also, near-surface dewpoints are higher today, so rainfall will be more intense, with heavy rain and small hail possible.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"577\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-102925-1024x577.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4287\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-102925-1024x577.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-102925-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-102925-768x433.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-04-102925.png 1406w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast soundings for Tucson at 4 pm (left) and for Nogales at 3:30 pm (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The&nbsp;12Z HRRR-UA WRF radar reflectivity and 10-meter wind forecast for this afternoon to evening is below. Thunderstorms develop on the higher terrain areas in SE Arizona (Graham, Greenlee, Cochise counties) and move southwest again, similar to yesterday. Considering how accurate the forecast was yesterday,&nbsp;the potential for severe weather in Tucson is high! The storms also push up to southeast Pinal County. The storms weaken as they move west, and only lighter showers will reach Phoenix, along with gusty winds and blowing dust.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"564\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1732 \/ 564;\" width=\"1732\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260804-1727-02.3447992.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left) and 10-meter wind speed (right) forecast from 3 pm to 5:30 am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The forecast total precipitation from the HRRR-UA WRF 12Z (left)&nbsp;and the 15Z (right) below shows&nbsp;a range of 0.25\u201d to 0.6\u201d of rain forecast for the Tucson metro area. Given the increase in dewpoint temperatures&nbsp;the storms have to work with from the Gulf Surge, 15Z looks to be a better forecast, leaning toward the higher totals.&nbsp;The increase in moisture will allow storms to move into Pinal County.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"335\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-33-1024x335.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4289\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-33-1024x335.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-33-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-33-768x251.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-33-1536x502.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-33.png 1732w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z (left) and 15Z (right) accumulated precipitation through to 5 am Monday morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thunderstorms form again&nbsp;in eastern Arizona and move west, but cooling from Tuesday&#8217;s thunderstorm outflows will limit how far west the storms will get.&nbsp;Eastern Pima and Tucson will see some non-severe&nbsp;storms before&nbsp;the storm intensity diminishes.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"750\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1138 \/ 750;\" width=\"1138\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/20260804-1758-38.4546987.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity for tomorrow from 1:30 pm to 3 am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On Thursday, the pattern does not change much as the monsoon high-pressure remains in about the same&nbsp;location, and the lower deserts may not have recovered yet from the cooling they will get today. Still, Tucson and Nogales may see storms again in the afternoon and evening.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"335\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-34-1024x335.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4293\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-34-1024x335.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-34-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-34-768x251.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-34-1536x503.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-34.png 1732w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left) and 10-meter wind speed (right) forecast for Thursday at 7 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The long-range ensemble forecasts show monsoon storms will wind down by the weekend, then increase again next week.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"818\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-35-1024x818.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4295\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-35-1024x818.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-35-300x240.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-35-768x614.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-35.png 1076w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble forecasts of 2-meter temperature (top) and 3-hour accumulated precipitation (bottom), NCAR.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Discussion written by Pat Holbrook and Patrick Bunn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary Surface dewpoint temperatures have increased above 60\u00b0F in the low deserts due to a moisture surge from the Gulf of California and thunderstorm outflows. The observed sounding from Phoenix indicates a persistent moist layer above 500mb, but the associated cooling from the Gulf Surge and outflows has raised Convective Inhibition, making it difficult for &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[8],"class_list":["post-4260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-8"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4260","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4260"}],"version-history":[{"count":18,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4260\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4315,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4260\/revisions\/4315"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4260"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4260"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4260"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}