{"id":414,"date":"2025-06-25T17:11:30","date_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:11:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=414"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:18:06","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:18:06","slug":"mostly-lighnting-only-a-few-drops-in-nm-june-25th-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=414","title":{"rendered":"Mostly lighnting, only a few drops in NM: June 25th, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>New Mexico was still the focus of the convective activity especially across the central portion of the state where the jet stream dynamics were the most favorable. Storms also formed in southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona. A flash flood watch remains in effect for most of New Mexico through Wednesday. A few showers were also in the Tucson metro, but very little precipitation reached the ground. The western two thirds of Arizona was mostly clear with southerly winds gusting to 30 mph in the higher locations.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"656\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1056 \/ 656;\" width=\"1056\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Recording-2025-06-25-090210.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES19 long-wave infrared with derived GLM flashes overlaid from June 24th 10am to 6am this morning, College of DuPage<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/IMG_0464-1024x768.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-422\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/IMG_0464-1024x768.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/IMG_0464-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/IMG_0464-768x576.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/IMG_0464-1536x1152.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/IMG_0464-2048x1536.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Photo of altocumulus castellanus from Tucson&nbsp;looking east<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The upper level water vapor satellite image below shows the tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) and upper lows along the TUTT forming off the east coast of Florida down to Mexico City. A developing tropical system south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec shows the beginning of an upper-level anticyclone over the tropical system. The anticyclone will aid in the development of the tropical system as its outflow intensifies once its interacts with the circulation of the TUTT low to the north. This storm system should push moisture northward, as suggested in longer range model forecasts around July 4th.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"818\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1374 \/ 818;\" width=\"1374\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Recording-2025-06-25-092216.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES19 upper level water vapor imagery today 1am to 9am, College of DuPage<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>At 250mb, strong southwest winds are still dominating the region. But the core of the polar jet has moved farther north, meaning the favorable synoptic dynamics of yesterday have passed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/weather.arizona.edu\/wrf\/2025-06-25\/12Z\/HRRR\/d01\/spd_250\/12Z_HRRR_d01_spd_250_2025-06-25_2025-06-25_19:00Z.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>At 500mb, temperatures over Arizona have cooled off slightly, but remain the same over New Mexico. The wind remains strong from the southeast.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/weather.arizona.edu\/wrf\/2025-06-25\/12Z\/HRRR\/d01\/500mb_temp\/12Z_HRRR_d01_500mb_temp_2025-06-25_2025-06-25_19:00Z.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>At 700mb, the moisture axis is from Chihuahua northward to central New Mexico where it connects with a front and the moisture streams northward to the North and South Dakota. The front\/moisture is shown on the upper level water vapor satellite image extending east to New York.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"746\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 760 \/ 746;\" width=\"760\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Recording-2025-06-25-093424.mp4\"><\/video><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The simulated radar reflectivity forecasts from UA WRF with HRRR initializations show that although the storms are in the same general location as yesterday\u2019s storms, there is a decrease in intensity and areal coverage from yesterday. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"568\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1744 \/ 568;\" width=\"1744\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Recording-2025-06-25-094508.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z (left), 00Z (right) forecast simulated radar reflectivity from noon to 2am tonight.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The total precipitation image below that shows the storms mainly on the mountains. Arizona, except for the far east near Springerville, remains dry and even the surface winds are weaker than yesterday as the trough, and associated jet, moves out of the region. Temperatures are starting to rise again as the moisture is leaving.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/weather.arizona.edu\/wrf\/2025-06-25\/12Z\/HRRR\/d02\/rain_tot\/12Z_HRRR_d02_rain_tot_2025-06-25_2025-06-26_18:00Z.png\" alt=\"\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z total accumulated precipitation through 11am tomorrow. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Even fewer storms in New Mexico forecast for tomorrow as the flow of monsoon moisture weakens. There are actually a few more storms in the White mountains, but little precipitation expected on the ground. Still, all of these storms will produce lightning, therefore have the potential to start fires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"748\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1132 \/ 748;\" width=\"1132\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Recording-2025-06-25-095219.mp4\"><\/video><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The models continue to agree upon a warming trend over the next week, with an increase temperature of 2 degrees F. New Mexico will also dry out over these days, with decreasing rain chances throughout the week. The CAPE maps below are for Thursday and Friday at noon. The CAPE values off the Gulf of California on Friday is not a gulf surge as it will mix out into the dry air throughout the day. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"334\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-25-100202-1024x334.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-426\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-25-100202-1024x334.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-25-100202-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-25-100202-768x251.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-25-100202-1536x501.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-25-100202.png 1737w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Discussion written by Pat Holbrook<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yesterday&#8217;s Weather New Mexico was still the focus of the convective activity especially across the central portion of the state where the jet stream dynamics were the most favorable. Storms also formed in southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona. A flash flood watch remains in effect for most of New Mexico through Wednesday. A few &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-414","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/414","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=414"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/414\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":429,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/414\/revisions\/429"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=414"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=414"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=414"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}