{"id":4080,"date":"2026-07-28T17:47:55","date_gmt":"2026-07-28T17:47:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=4080"},"modified":"2026-07-28T17:52:16","modified_gmt":"2026-07-28T17:52:16","slug":"the-low-grade-monsoon-pattern-continues-with-some-evening-showers-in-tucson-possible-from-activity-in-cochise-county-today-and-tomorrow-july-28th-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=4080","title":{"rendered":"The low-grade monsoon pattern continues with some evening showers in Tucson possible from activity in Cochise County today and tomorrow: July 28th, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Areas with remnant circulation and cloud cover from a mesoscale convective complex (MCC) yesterday will not have any convective initiation today. While moisture remains high in southern Arizona, northern Arizona and most of New Mexico have lower dewpoints. The upper-level flow is from the southeast, and temperatures at 500 mb are still too warm for widespread activity. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, storms are most likely on the Colorado Plateau and in Cochise County, with some showers potentially reaching eastern Pima County overnight. Tomorrow and into Wednesday, storm activity is expected to be most organized in southeast Arizona, particularly in Santa Cruz and Cochise counties, while other areas remain relatively dry. The region continues to experience a low-grade monsoon pattern, with more storms expected once upper-level winds shift northeasterly later in the week. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday’s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCC) developed in northwest Mexico near where the shortwave trough at 300mb and the cold air at 500 mb were analyzed yesterday morning. The model forecasts had a tough time with this as the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) was underestimated on the 12Z run. <\/p>\n\n\n\n