{"id":4015,"date":"2026-07-26T16:53:28","date_gmt":"2026-07-26T16:53:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=4015"},"modified":"2026-07-27T17:19:53","modified_gmt":"2026-07-27T17:19:53","slug":"thunderstorms-limited-to-the-mountains-east-south-of-tucson-and-north-east-of-phoenix-july-26th-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=4015","title":{"rendered":"Thunderstorms limited to the mountains east\/south of Tucson and north\/east of Phoenix: July 26th, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Upper-level water vapor satellite imagery shows multiple Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs and a polar front influencing conditions south of a well-positioned but broad subtropical high in the Southwest. The 500 mb temperatures are too warm (above -5\u00b0C), and the 500mb heights are well over the 95th percentile. Moisture is present, especially in Arizona, but surface heating is insufficient for widespread thunderstorms in the valleys, given the current vertical temperature profile. Only mountainous regions are expected to see significant rainfall. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forecasts indicate that convective inhibition (CIN) will limit storm activity today in Phoenix. Tucson has plenty of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) if it can overcome the CIN present. Storms will initiate in the mountains, though, and most rain will remain confined to higher elevations in both regions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The overall outlook is for a weak monsoon pattern, with limited thunderstorm development expected in southern Arizona through Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thunderstorms developed on the Mogollon Rim in the early afternoon, propagating towards the south and west and reaching Phoenix by 6 pm. Strong winds and dust were associated with the storms, with the highest wind gusts between 45 and 50 mph. The storms swept west to the California border by midnight. Thunderstorms in southeast Arizona were slower to develop than forecast, with a few isolated storms in the late afternoon. A line of thunderstorms developed and moved west into Safford, Benson, and Nogales by dark. The storms weakened, moving into Tucson and the low deserts by 11 pm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"804\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1240 \/ 804;\" width=\"1240\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/20260726-1459-53.9542851.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery overlaid with GLM lightning flashes from July 25th from 9 am to 3 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 24-hour observed precipitation from the Maricopa County Flood Control alert system is below. Light precipitation fell in the Phoenix metro area (&lt;0.2\u201d) with heavier rain to the west and in the mountains north and east of Phoenix (&gt;0.5\u201d).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"674\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-175-1024x674.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4019\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-175-1024x674.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-175-300x197.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-175-768x505.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-175.png 1255w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">24-hour precipitation totals from Maricopa County Regional Flood Control District gauges, <a href=\"https:\/\/alertmap.rfcd.pima.gov\/gmap\/gmap.html\">Alert Map<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Pima County Flood Control alert system observed precipitation shows heavier precipitation in the Catalina Mountains (&gt;0.5\u201d), although the 1.14\u201d was at Summit, just south of the Tucson Airport. The general metro area got a trace to less than 0.25\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"776\" height=\"807\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-176.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4020\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-176.png 776w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-176-288x300.png 288w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-176-768x799.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 776px) 100vw, 776px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">24-hour precipitation totals from Pima County Regional Flood Control District gauges, <a href=\"https:\/\/alertmap.rfcd.pima.gov\/gmap\/gmap.html\">Alert Map<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) is shown below. The precipitation forecast from the Mogollon Rim and north was pretty good. Pima and western Cochise County precipitation was underestimated in the east and overestimated in the western part of the county, indicating storm propagation and downstream development were not forecast correctly. The missing weather balloon data for Southern Arizona is likely a factor in the problem forecast.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"334\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-177-1024x334.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4022\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-177-1024x334.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-177-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-177-768x251.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-177-1536x502.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-177.png 1736w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) for July 25th.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The upper-level water vapor situation is quite complicated this morning, with three Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs (TUTTs) from the Gulf of Mexico to the Pacific Ocean all moving slowly west. A polar low is just west of Big Bend, Texas, and a polar front is approaching the Pacific Northwest.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"652\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-081947-1024x652.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4023\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-081947-1024x652.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-081947-300x191.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-081947-768x489.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-081947.png 1037w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 upper-level water vapor image from July 26th at 7 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is still a large area of 60\u00b0F+&nbsp;dewpoint temperatures in Arizona, offset by 50\u00b0F dewpoint temperatures in New Mexico. The thunderstorm outflow pushed all the way to the Colorado River in the west, aiding in moisture transport to the lower elevations of Arizona.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"543\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-082808-1024x543.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4024\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-082808-1024x543.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-082808-300x159.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-082808-768x407.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-082808.png 1493w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Surface weather station observations for Arizona and New Mexico at 7:00 am, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/wrh\/hazards?&amp;zoom=8&amp;scroll_zoom=false&amp;center=32.656025851099066,-110.76888628244107&amp;boundaries=false,true,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&amp;tab=observation&amp;hazard=true&amp;hazard_type=all&amp;hazard_opacity=80&amp;obs=true&amp;obs_type=weather&amp;elements=temp,wind,gust&amp;temp_filter=-80,130&amp;gust_filter=0,150&amp;rh_filter=0,100&amp;elev_filter=-300,14000&amp;precip_filter=0.01,30&amp;obs_popup=false&amp;obs_density=60&amp;obs_provider=ALL\">NWS<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z initialization and observed sounding from Phoenix at 5 am&nbsp;(below)&nbsp;are very similar except for the area in the black box. The cooling in the layer below 850mb means that an extra 100 [J\/kg] of energy from solar heating will be needed to get storms to form in the valleys. The convective temperature is 112\u00b0F while the forecast maximum temperature from the sounding is 102\u00b0F. NWS&nbsp;Phoenix&nbsp;forecasts a high of 109\u00b0F, and UA WRF is at 111\u00b0F. None of the forecasts get to the required convective temperature.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"580\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-083150-1-1024x580.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4026\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-083150-1-1024x580.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-083150-1-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-083150-1-768x435.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-083150-1.png 1397w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z (left) initialization and observed sounding (right) at Phoenix for 5 am this morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 250mb, the monsoon high is in about the same position as yesterday, and the short-wave trough&nbsp;moved from the position marked in red yesterday to its present location in black.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"842\" height=\"847\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-083942.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4028\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9941024429929428;width:602px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-083942.png 842w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-083942-298x300.png 298w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-083942-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-083942-768x773.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 842px) 100vw, 842px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The monsoon high is in a similar location as yesterday at 500 mb, with two short-wave troughs moving westward underneath the ridge.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"842\" height=\"847\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-084136.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4029\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9941024429929428;width:594px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-084136.png 842w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-084136-298x300.png 298w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-084136-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-084136-768x773.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 842px) 100vw, 842px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 700mb, flow is still weak below the monsoon ridge. The easterly wave south of Douglas is the remains of Bertha and could be a focal point for storms today along and south of the International border.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"852\" height=\"852\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-084604.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4030\" style=\"width:602px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-084604.png 852w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-084604-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-084604-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-084604-768x768.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 852px) 100vw, 852px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast&nbsp;soundings&nbsp;for&nbsp;6 pm&nbsp;today show&nbsp;Phoenix&nbsp;has&nbsp;290 [J\/kg]&nbsp;and Tucson&nbsp;800 [J\/kg]&nbsp;for&nbsp;mixed-layer&nbsp;Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and&nbsp;between -70 and -30 [J\/kg] of&nbsp;Convective Inhibition&nbsp;(CIN), respectively. The Phoenix sounding does not appear to be able to support storms in the valley, while Tucson has plenty of CAPE if the CIN can be overcome. Anvils will be blowing to the west, which is a negative for both cities, as they will inhibit surface heating for continued inflows.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"573\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-085139-1024x573.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4031\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-085139-1024x573.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-085139-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-085139-768x430.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-26-085139.png 1416w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast soundings for Phoenix (left) and Tucson (right) at 6 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With a southeast wind flow aloft, thunderstorms will be confined to the mountains mainly in western Cochise and Santa Cruz counties, along the Mogollon Rim and Colorado Plateau. Heavy rain is the main threat, especially along the International border.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"566\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1734 \/ 566;\" width=\"1734\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/20260726-1554-48.5378237.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left) and 10-meter wind speed forecast for today from 2:30 pm to 2 am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 24-hour precipitation accumulation forecast shows rainfall is restricted to the mountainous areas of the Mogollon Rim and Santa Cruz and Cochise counties, where totals of 0.5&#8243; are likely, with peaks getting more than 1.5&#8243;. None for the low deserts.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"672\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-179-1024x672.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4036\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-179-1024x672.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-179-300x197.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-179-768x504.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-179.png 1135w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast to 5 am tomorrow.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A similar type of problem tomorrow,&nbsp;in terms of&nbsp;storms moving off the mountains, as there is still too much CIN. Another factor is the low-level northwest winds across southern Arizona, which may cool the boundary layer by a couple of degrees. Even with these negatives, some storms try to move into the valleys by the evening before dissipating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"564\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1732 \/ 564;\" width=\"1732\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/20260726-1600-11.5439698.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left) and 10-meter wind speed forecast for tomorrow from 1 pm to 4 am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Tuesday afternoon forecast shows almost a blank slate in the southern half of Arizona. The only thunderstorms predicted are in northeast Arizona and northwest New Mexico.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"671\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-180-1024x671.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4041\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-180-1024x671.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-180-300x197.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-180-768x503.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-180.png 1137w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 06Z simulated radar reflectivity for Tuesday at 6 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Global model ensemble forecasts indicate a low-grade monsoon pattern this week.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"821\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-178-1024x821.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4035\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.2472468929074305;width:766px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-178-1024x821.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-178-300x241.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-178-768x616.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-178.png 1086w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble forecasts of 2-meter temperature (top) and 3-hourly accumulated precipitation (bottom), NCAR.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Discussion written by Pat Holbrook and Patrick Bunn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary Upper-level water vapor satellite imagery shows multiple Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs and a polar front influencing conditions south of a well-positioned but broad subtropical high in the Southwest. The 500 mb temperatures are too warm (above -5\u00b0C), and the 500mb heights are well over the 95th percentile. Moisture is present, especially in Arizona, but &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[8],"class_list":["post-4015","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-8"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4015","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4015"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4015\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4070,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4015\/revisions\/4070"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4015"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4015"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4015"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}