{"id":3893,"date":"2026-07-25T16:47:53","date_gmt":"2026-07-25T16:47:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=3893"},"modified":"2026-07-26T15:01:18","modified_gmt":"2026-07-26T15:01:18","slug":"thunderstorms-likely-this-afternoon-in-both-tucson-and-phoenix-metro-areas-with-blowing-dust-and-wind-gusts-over-50-mph-possible-storms-confined-near-the-mountains-tomorrow-july-25th","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=3893","title":{"rendered":"Thunderstorms likely this afternoon in both Tucson and Phoenix metro areas,\u00a0with blowing dust and\u00a0wind gusts over 50 mph possible; storms confined near\u00a0the mountains tomorrow: July 25th, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Monsoon flow is present from Sonora to the Baja Peninsula into California around a well-established subtropical high-pressure system in the Southwest region. Recent forecasts initially suggested a potential Gulf Surge today, but current observations indicate that the increased humidity is largely due to outflow from thunderstorms in northwest Mexico, rather than a classic surge. High dewpoints are already present, and strong outflow winds have been observed, especially near Yuma. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Phoenix weather balloon sounding and forecast show abundant mid-level moisture and unstable conditions, particularly over Arizona, supporting the development of thunderstorms. Today, storms are expected to form on the Mogollon Rim and northeastern Pima County, moving southwest toward Phoenix and Tucson, with threats of strong winds, localized rain, blowing dust, and a possible haboob. Additional storms will develop tonight and into tomorrow, mainly over and near mountainous areas. While more moisture is forecast to remain in place through next week, ensemble models suggest overall rainfall totals will remain modest, though daily storm chances will continue through the end of the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Isolated thunderstorms developed in Arizona during the afternoon, and by evening the storms were more numerous in eastern Arizona and New Mexico. In Arizona, most of the storms were over the mountains. The high bases of the storms combined with excessive heat produced microburst wind gusts around 40 mph; Albuquerque had a wind gust of 78 mph.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"802\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1228 \/ 802;\" width=\"1228\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/20260725-1446-24.9066869.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery overlaid with GLM lightning flashes from July 24th from 10 am to 5 pm, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">An infrared satellite image from 6 am this morning shows dissipating deep convection in Mexico west of the spine of the Sierra Madre mountains. The low pressure south of the Texas Big Bend is the best estimate of the location of the remnant circulation from Tropical Storm Bertha. The storms west of Bertha are not related to Bertha, and all Bertha will do is bring additional moisture into Arizona. Thunderstorms continue propagating northward to just south of the International border.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"940\" height=\"843\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-075258.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3985\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-075258.png 940w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-075258-300x269.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-075258-768x689.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 940px) 100vw, 940px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 infrared satellite imagery from July 25th at 6 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) is shown below. A little more precipitation fell in eastern New Mexico, but overall, the forecast was accurate.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"332\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-169-1024x332.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3987\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-169-1024x332.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-169-300x97.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-169-768x249.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-169-1536x499.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-169.png 1731w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) for July 24th.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Monsoon flow is well established along the Baja Peninsula into California. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"965\" height=\"652\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-080219.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3990\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-080219.png 965w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-080219-300x203.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-080219-768x519.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 965px) 100vw, 965px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 low-level water vapor image from July 25th at 7 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Previous forecasts indicated what could have been interpreted as a Gulf Surge&nbsp;either this morning or evening.&nbsp;But today we see&nbsp;it is only outflow from the thunderstorm complex in Mexico. Since the dewpoints are already high, this outflow will only augment existing moisture. A typical Gulf Surge starts off with dewpoint temperatures in the 40\u00b0F range and then jumps up to the 60\u00b0F range with strong southerly winds. <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-082158-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3994\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-082158-1024x527.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-082158-300x154.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-082158-768x395.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-082158.png 1526w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Surface weather station observations for Arizona and New Mexico at 7:00 am, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/wrh\/hazards?&amp;zoom=8&amp;scroll_zoom=false&amp;center=32.656025851099066,-110.76888628244107&amp;boundaries=false,true,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&amp;tab=observation&amp;hazard=true&amp;hazard_type=all&amp;hazard_opacity=80&amp;obs=true&amp;obs_type=weather&amp;elements=temp,wind,gust&amp;temp_filter=-80,130&amp;gust_filter=0,150&amp;rh_filter=0,100&amp;elev_filter=-300,14000&amp;precip_filter=0.01,30&amp;obs_popup=false&amp;obs_density=60&amp;obs_provider=ALL\">NWS<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Since dewpoint temperatures were already high, this is not technically a Gulf Surge, but outflow from the storms in northwest Mexico.&nbsp;Puerto Penasco had wind gusts up to 37 mph from the south and reached the radar site near Yuma at 7:15 am this morning (1412 on the graphic below, 10 kts and higher).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"722\" height=\"777\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-171.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3993\" style=\"width:656px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-171.png 722w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-171-279x300.png 279w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 722px) 100vw, 722px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile (VWP) from Yuma radar YUX from 6:37 am to 8:05 am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z initialization (left) and observed sounding (right) for Phoenix at 5 am are below. The observed sounding has greater vertical resolution dewpoint temperature data versus the smoothed forecast initialization, but both soundings have similar precipitable water. The dewpoint temperature in the green box is mid-level moisture and represents the layer of the atmosphere that is the Most Unstable (MU). The MU is at about 12,000 feet (3.6 km), and that is where the base of clouds will be initially. The thunderstorm outflow from Sonora was still well south of Phoenix during the 5 am sounding&nbsp;but will get there by this afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"585\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-081046-1-1024x585.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3996\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-081046-1-1024x585.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-081046-1-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-081046-1-768x439.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-081046-1.png 1393w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z (left) initialization and observed sounding (right) at Phoenix for 5 am this morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 250 mb, the monsoon high-pressure ridge dominates the circulation over the region, with a couple of short waves moving west across northern Mexico. The wave to the west is related to the thunderstorm complex in northern Mexico, and the wave further east is probably from the remains of Bertha.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"842\" height=\"855\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-083816.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3999\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9847981460616189;width:612px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-083816.png 842w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-083816-295x300.png 295w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-083816-768x780.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 842px) 100vw, 842px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The monsoon ridge is in Colorado at 500mb; though&nbsp;it\u2019s a broad ridge over the Southwest region, the location of the exact center is not as important as the circulation around it. The&nbsp;broad nature of the high means flow in most of Arizona is weak, though just south of the International border up to 30 kt easterly winds with embedded waves represent a promising monsoonal flow if the center of the high-pressure becomes&nbsp;more well defined and the stronger flow&nbsp;shifts north.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"851\" height=\"850\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-084952.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4000\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.0011720117682756;width:612px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-084952.png 851w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-084952-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-084952-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-084952-768x767.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 851px) 100vw, 851px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 700mb, the wave furthest west&nbsp;is not visible at this level, and a different wave&nbsp;extends south from just east of the Big Bend. The wave&nbsp;between Chihuahua and Sonora&nbsp;is approaching southeast Arizona.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"852\" height=\"852\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-090044.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4001\" style=\"width:614px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-090044.png 852w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-090044-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-090044-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-090044-768x768.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 852px) 100vw, 852px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast soundings for 4 pm today show Phoenix has 475 [J\/kg] and Tucson 550 [J\/kg] for the most unstable layer, Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), and no Convective Inhibition (CIN). The downward CAPE indicates 45+mph winds at the surface from outflows and 60+mph at some locations. Storms will move to the southwest given the 0- 6 km mean wind direction.x<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"578\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-090609-1024x578.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4002\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-090609-1024x578.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-090609-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-090609-768x434.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-090609.png 1402w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><br>HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast soundings for Phoenix (left) and Tucson (right) at 4 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The forecast radar reflectivity and winds show the storms will develop on the Mogollon Rim and northeastern Pima County, then propagate west towards Phoenix and southwest to Tucson. Storms don\u2019t look well organized, so localized precipitation is most likely.&nbsp;Blowing dust and haboob in Phoenix is also possible. The storms will reach the Colorado River by midnight as they continue to develop and get more organized further downstream. Additional non-severe storms will develop in Santa Cruz and eastern Pima counties in the evening and move to the Phoenix area by the morning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"564\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1734 \/ 564;\" width=\"1734\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/20260725-1615-31.7506375.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left) and 10-meter wind speed forecast for today from 1 pm to 5 am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The heaviest rain will be on and near the mountains as shown in the total accumulated precipitation map below, and any flooding should be localized.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"671\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-172-1024x671.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4005\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-172-1024x671.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-172-300x197.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-172-768x503.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-172.png 1132w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast to 5 am tomorrow.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tomorrow, thunderstorms are forecast around the edge of the low deserts as the boundary layer will be cooled by&nbsp;today\u2019s&nbsp;storms. Storms are predicted to develop in southeast Arizona, and southwest and northern New Mexico, though predominantly over and near the mountains.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-173-1024x675.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4006\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-173-1024x675.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-173-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-173-768x506.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-173.png 1130w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity forecast for tomorrow at 5 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">More moisture moves into Arizona on Monday from an outflow from a large thunderstorm complex in northwest Mexico&nbsp;on Sunday night. The storms in eastern Arizona will move west and may make it to Tucson Monday evening, but not much further west.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"331\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-174-1024x331.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4008\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-174-1024x331.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-174-300x97.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-174-768x248.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-174-1536x497.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-174.png 1735w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left) and 10-meter wind speed forecast for Monday at 6:30 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Global model ensemble forecasts show there is not a lot of accumulated precipitation through the end of the month, though storms are possible every day. Tucson and Phoenix forecasts are similar, with the ensemble mean less than 0.4\u201d in both locations.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"822\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-093651-1024x822.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4010\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-093651-1024x822.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-093651-300x241.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-093651-768x617.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-25-093651.png 1075w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble forecasts total accumulated precipitation for Tucson (top) and Phoenix (bottom), NCAR.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Discussion written by Pat Holbrook and Patrick Bunn<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary Monsoon flow is present from Sonora to the Baja Peninsula into California around a well-established subtropical high-pressure system in the Southwest region. Recent forecasts initially suggested a potential Gulf Surge today, but current observations indicate that the increased humidity is largely due to outflow from thunderstorms in northwest Mexico, rather than a classic surge. &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[8],"class_list":["post-3893","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-8"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3893","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3893"}],"version-history":[{"count":14,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3893\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4017,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3893\/revisions\/4017"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3893"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3893"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3893"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}