{"id":3892,"date":"2026-07-22T17:46:20","date_gmt":"2026-07-22T17:46:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=3892"},"modified":"2026-07-23T15:57:05","modified_gmt":"2026-07-23T15:57:05","slug":"isolated-thunderstorms-for-the-next-few-days-as-warming-trend-begins-july-22nd-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=3892","title":{"rendered":"Isolated thunderstorms for the next few days as warming trend begins: July 22nd, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A low pressure system in northeast Arizona is moving north, bringing potential storms to northern Arizona and western New Mexico, while the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) near Baja may interact with outlfow from Hurricane Fausto. Tropical Storm Bertha is encountering upper-level winds, but could still bring heavy rain to southeast Texas. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Monsoon moisture is affecting much of the Southwest, with flash flood watches in western New Mexico extending north into Utah and Colorado. Forecast soundings indicate isolated afternoon and evening storms near Arizona&#8217;s mountains, with subsidence in the wake of the low into northeast Arizona limiting storm development elsewhere. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tomorrow is expected to be similar, though slightly more active as subsidence weakens. Looking ahead, an increase in moisture and thunderstorm activity is possible over the weekend, but forecasts remain uncertain due to changing weather patterns and the potential influence of Hurricane Fausto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The thunderstorms were confined&nbsp;over&nbsp;and near the mountains for both Phoenix and Tucson. Storm motion was guided by the upper low, with storms moving&nbsp;north&nbsp;in western New Mexico,&nbsp;west&nbsp;in northern Arizona, and then southwest\/south along I-17. In southern Arizona, storms either formed and dissipated in place or, due to weak outflows, spread from mountain to mountain. Fewer storms occurred in eastern New Mexico and western Arizona, as shown by the lack of lightning strikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"808\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1278 \/ 808;\" width=\"1278\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/20260722-1544-10.3085024.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery overlaid with GLM lightning flashes from July 21st from 8 am to 8:30 pm, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the Tucson area, storms formed on the Catalina and Rincon Mountains, then moved around the cities&#8217; edge from the southeast, then south, then west, as shown on the radar animation below (forecast left, observation right). &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"822\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1688 \/ 822;\" width=\"1688\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/20260722-1548-51.8503061.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z radar reflectivity forecast (left) and corresponding observed composite radar reflectivity from MRMS (right) for July 21st.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Locally heavy rain occurred mainly on the mountain tops, where 24-hour totals are &gt;1&#8243;. Vail and along I-10 east of Vail also received heavy rain &gt;0.5&#8243;.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"827\" height=\"816\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-156.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3896\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-156.png 827w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-156-300x296.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-156-768x758.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 827px) 100vw, 827px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">24-hour precipitation totals from Pima County Regional Flood Control District gauges, <a href=\"https:\/\/alertmap.rfcd.pima.gov\/gmap\/gmap.html\">Alert Map<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The low pressure in eastern Arizona forced storms to move towards Phoenix from the north along I-17 before they dissapted&nbsp;before midnight. Some of the storms moved into the valley and north and east of the 101 all the way down to Gilbert.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"809\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-157-1024x809.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3897\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-157-1024x809.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-157-300x237.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-157-768x607.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-157.png 1040w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">24-hour precipitation totals from Maricopa County Regional Flood Control District gauges, <a href=\"https:\/\/alertmap.rfcd.pima.gov\/gmap\/gmap.html\">Alert Map<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Below is the HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right). The forecast&nbsp;was generally accurate. The light morning showers west of Sells to Yuma along the International border were a little overdone in the forecast, and no rain fell in western Arizona, as indicated by the observed data.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"334\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-158-1024x334.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3903\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-158-1024x334.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-158-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-158-768x251.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-158-1536x501.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-158.png 1737w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) for July 21st.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Remnant circulation from Tropical Storm Elida is now caught in the jet stream and is no longer influential. The low in northeast Arizona this morning is continuing to move north and may affect storms in northern Arizona&nbsp;and western New Mexico this afternoon\/evening. The Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) off the coast of Baja is moving north and may get tied into the upper-level outflow from Hurricane Fausto.&nbsp; Tropical Storm Bertha is being affected by strong upper-level&nbsp;winds as it moves slowly west. It has the potential to produce heavy rain in southeast Texas once it moves onshore.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"712\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-090212-1024x712.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3904\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-090212-1024x712.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-090212-300x208.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-090212-768x534.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-090212.png 1075w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 low-level water vapor image from July 22 nd at 8:40 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A few showers are northeast of Phoenix this morning, but they will weaken as they move further south and east.&nbsp;The flash flood watch in western New Mexico&nbsp;extends northward into parts of&nbsp;Utah, Colorado, Idaho, and Montana as monsoon moisture has moved into this area.&nbsp;Nearly all of Arizona is above 60\u00b0F, whereas northern New Mexico and the Colorado Plateau are in the 50s. <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"524\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-092937-1024x524.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3905\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-092937-1024x524.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-092937-300x153.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-092937-768x393.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-092937-1536x785.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-092937.png 1557w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Surface weather station observations for Arizona and New Mexico at 7:00 am, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/wrh\/hazards?&amp;zoom=8&amp;scroll_zoom=false&amp;center=32.656025851099066,-110.76888628244107&amp;boundaries=false,true,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&amp;tab=observation&amp;hazard=true&amp;hazard_type=all&amp;hazard_opacity=80&amp;obs=true&amp;obs_type=weather&amp;elements=temp,wind,gust&amp;temp_filter=-80,130&amp;gust_filter=0,150&amp;rh_filter=0,100&amp;elev_filter=-300,14000&amp;precip_filter=0.01,30&amp;obs_popup=false&amp;obs_density=60&amp;obs_provider=ALL\">NWS<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The&nbsp;HRRR-UA WRF 12Z&nbsp;initialization&nbsp;(left) and&nbsp;observed&nbsp;sounding&nbsp;(right) for Phoenix at 5 am is below.&nbsp;Both the forecast initialization and observations are in good agreement,&nbsp;so the&nbsp;forecasts today should be good. Preciptatable water remains high, &gt; 49 mm.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"580\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-093721-1024x580.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3908\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-093721-1024x580.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-093721-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-093721-768x435.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-093721.png 1399w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z (left) initialization and observed sounding (right) at Phoenix for 5 am this morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 250mb, the monsoon ridge is along the Texas\/Oklahoma border having moved a little further south since yesterday; the ridge is poised to move back to the west as the upper low over northeast Arizona moves north.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"841\" height=\"852\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-095434.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3911\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9870933578607182;width:606px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-095434.png 841w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-095434-296x300.png 296w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-095434-768x778.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 841px) 100vw, 841px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A trough over Arizona and Utah is between the two high-pressure centers at 500 mb. The trough is weakening, allowing the highs to merge into one.&nbsp;Temperatures are colder aloft&nbsp;in northeast Arizona and&nbsp;eastern Utah&nbsp;and this will aid&nbsp;in the development of thunderstorms with heavy rain.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"840\" height=\"847\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-095900.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3912\" style=\"width:602px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-095900.png 840w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-095900-298x300.png 298w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-095900-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-095900-768x774.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 840px) 100vw, 840px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 700mb, the low in&nbsp;Arizona&nbsp;is moving to the northwest and slowly weakening as it moves northward.&nbsp;Ahead of it\u2019s path will be a focus of storms today, but mostly in northeast Arizona, Utah, and Colorado. In about 24 hours, it will dissipate and the monsoon circulation will reestablish itself across New Mexico and Arizona.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"847\" height=\"857\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-100259.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3913\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9883321657719353;width:600px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-100259.png 847w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-100259-296x300.png 296w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-100259-768x777.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 847px) 100vw, 847px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Both the Phoenix and Tucson forecast sounding at 4:30 pm have enough Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE)  and low Convective Inhibition (CIN) to support&nbsp;isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms near the mountains.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"572\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-101021-1024x572.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3915\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-101021-1024x572.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-101021-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-101021-768x429.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-22-101021.png 1415w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast soundings for Phoenix (left) and Tucson (right) at 4:30 pm today.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z radar reflectivity forecast for this afternoon shows only&nbsp;isolated storms in southern Arizona&nbsp;near the mountains. In the wake of the upper low in northeast&nbsp;Arizona, subsidence (sinking air) will occur and suppress thunderstorms. The storms in northern&nbsp;Arizona will move to the northeast out of the region.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"750\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1126 \/ 750;\" width=\"1126\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/20260722-1712-51.1069837.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity forecast for today at 1 pm to 1:30 am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tomorrow, will be somewhat of a repeat of today with a few more storms developing as upper-level subsidence weakens.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"679\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-159-1024x679.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3919\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-159-1024x679.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-159-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-159-768x510.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-159.png 1132w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity forecast for tomorrow at 4 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">An increase in moisture is expected Saturday from a possible gulf surge while an easterly wave approaches Arizona from the east.&nbsp;Forecasts for&nbsp;a gulf surge and thunderstorms three days in advance is risky,&nbsp;since uncertainty is high that far;&nbsp;it may not&nbsp;occur at all or be weaker. Circulation in the wake of Hurricane Fausto could be a contributing factor, so we&#8217;ll be monitoring its track for the next few days. <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"335\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-160-1024x335.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3921\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-160-1024x335.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-160-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-160-768x252.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-160-1536x503.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-160.png 1731w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left), 2-meter dewpoint (right), forecast for Saturday at 5 pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The global model ensemble forecasts show an&nbsp;increase in activity, but a day later than the the regional forecasts.&nbsp;In a&nbsp;general, an uptick in thunderstorms over the weekend is likely.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"830\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-161-1024x830.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3926\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.2337217788213857;width:765px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-161-1024x830.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-161-300x243.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-161-768x623.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-161.png 1067w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble forecasts of 2-meter temperature (top) and total accumulated precipitation (bottom), NCAR.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Discussion written by Pat Holbrook and Patrick Bunn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary A low pressure system in northeast Arizona is moving north, bringing potential storms to northern Arizona and western New Mexico, while the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) near Baja may interact with outlfow from Hurricane Fausto. Tropical Storm Bertha is encountering upper-level winds, but could still bring heavy rain to southeast Texas. Monsoon moisture &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[8],"class_list":["post-3892","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-8"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3892","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3892"}],"version-history":[{"count":21,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3892\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3938,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3892\/revisions\/3938"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3892"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3892"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3892"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}