Although ample surface moisture is available in Arizona, most areas are unlikely to reach the surface temperatures required for convective initiation, and there isn’t enough mixed-layer Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) either. New Mexico remains dry due to the influence of a polar low in Texas. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Forecasts indicate that storm development will be limited today, with only isolated weak storms possible in Tucson this evening and mostly clear conditions expected for Phoenix. Ongoing morning storms are producing light rain and are expected to dissipate by early afternoon, further suppressing additional storm activity. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The outlook for the weekend suggests a decrease in storm activity, with the polar low gradually shifting west into southeast Arizona early next week. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Thunderstorms developed yesterday on and near the mountains, but because the wind flow aloft was weak, they dumped much of their precipitation at elevation before weakening and drifting into the valleys. Visible satellite imagery animation for yesterday, with radar overlaid, is below and shows two red dots near Tucson at about 5 pm (00:00 UTC), which were the thunderstorms on the Tucson mountains (west of the interstates) and Catalina mountains (east). \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n