Surface moisture remains high across northern Arizona and New Mexico. Recent storms and cloud cover have cooled the low deserts, especially around Phoenix, where morning soundings show high precipitable water but significant convective inhibition. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Forecasts indicate that storms will develop over the mountains and move northwestward today, though weaker winds and lower CAPE may limit their intensity and organization, preventing them from reaching the valleys. Another easterly wave could enhance the storms today, though activity is still expected to reach Maricopa County by evening. Tomorrow, upper-level winds shift, favoring storms that form along the Mogollon Rim and move southwest into the valley, but these are expected to be weaker. Through mid-week, the monsoon pattern persists, with continued chances for mountain storms and occasional strong winds, particularly as upper-level troughs influence the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Storms were active in southeast Arizona, with many severe weather events in Pima and Cochise counties; the NWS issued 12 severe thunderstorm\/dust storm warnings. The easterly wave approaching southeastern Arizona yesterday aided the development and movement of the storms. Phoenix was ready to get hit by the storms, as seen in the late-afternoon satellite animation below at 5 pm. But strong outflows from storms on the Mogollon Rim swept into Phoenix, pushing the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) out of the area. The UA WRF\u00a0forecasts\u00a0underestimated storms in Cochise, Santa Cruz, and Pima counties, but were better in Maricopa, Pinal, and Yavapai counties. Microscale\u00a0structures that consequently affect the additional storm development are hard to represent in any weather forecast model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n