{"id":3484,"date":"2026-07-11T17:06:03","date_gmt":"2026-07-11T17:06:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=3484"},"modified":"2026-07-11T17:13:56","modified_gmt":"2026-07-11T17:13:56","slug":"potential-severe-storms-this-afternoon-and-evening-in-tucson-then-for-phoenix-and-the-low-desert-on-sunday-july-11th-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=3484","title":{"rendered":"Potential severe storms this afternoon and evening in Tucson, then for Phoenix and the low desert on Sunday: July 11th, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Moisture has increased, and the monsoon ridge has moved to favor easterly flow, bringing unstable conditions, especially to Tucson, which is forecast to experience severe thunderstorms with high winds and heavy rainfall. Phoenix is expected to remain mostly dry today, though mountain storms may send outflows into the valleys. UA WRF forecasts show storms developing in SE Arizona and moving west across southern Arizona, with an ensemble mean precipitation forecast of 0.5&#8243; at Tucson airport, with ranges of 0.25&#8243; to 1.5&#8243; in the Tucson metro possible. There is, therefore, a threat of localized flooding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tomorrow, Phoenix will have a higher chance of thunderstorms, while Tucson\u2019s storms are expected to be less severe. By Sunday and Monday, storms will become more scattered and less organized, with a trend toward drier conditions by the following weekend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The satellite imagery with radar overlaid shows that, as of 6 pm Friday evening, thunderstorms were in eastern Arizona, about 30 miles further east than on Thursday.&nbsp;The storms moved west, but dissipated before reaching Pima and Santa Cruz counties. Gusty outflow winds up to 45 mph pushed west into Graham, Cochise, and Santa Cruz counties, but not any further west.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"818\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1256 \/ 818;\" width=\"1256\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/20260711-1439-33.3895200.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 visible satellite imagery overlaid with composite radar and GLM lightning flashes from July 10th, from 11:30 pm to 10:30 pm, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The rainlog data below shows the rain totals from yesterday&#8217;s storms.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"487\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-77-1024x487.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3487\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-77-1024x487.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-77-300x143.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-77-768x365.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-77-1536x731.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-77.png 1566w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">24-hour precipitation totals from Rainlog, <a href=\"https:\/\/rainlog.org\/map;overlayOpacity=0;lat=31.9779;lng=-110.4134;zoom=8.09\">Rainlog.org<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Below is the&nbsp;HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) for July&nbsp;10th.&nbsp;Sometimes forecasts are a bust, and this one certainly was! The forecast precipitation was too far east by about 30 to 60 miles in Arizona and was overestimated in central and eastern New Mexico. Why, though? The thunderstorm outflow of moisture into Arizona cooled the boundary layer; Gila Bend was 3\u00b0F&nbsp;cooler than Tucson, and Tucson was 2\u00b0F cooler than it was at the same time on Thursday afternoon. When the afternoon westerly flow began, the \u201ccool\u201d air&nbsp;from the desert would not allow any cumulus to form even on the mountains. Two degrees does not seem like much, but with a 10,000-foot (3km) boundary layer, the result is a significant reduction in Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE).<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"338\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-78-1024x338.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3489\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-78-1024x338.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-78-300x99.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-78-768x253.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-78-1536x506.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-78.png 1735w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right) for July 10th.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is a trough axis between TUTT &#8220;L3&#8221; and &#8220;L5&#8221;. Over the next few days, these two TUTT lows will merge. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"977\" height=\"625\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-075051.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3490\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-075051.png 977w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-075051-300x192.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-075051-768x491.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 977px) 100vw, 977px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES-19 low-level water vapor image from July 11th at 7:40 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although the 50\u00b0F isodrosotherm was in the same general area as yesterday, the 60\u00b0F line has retreated further south in Arizona to the international border and further west into eastern New Mexico.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"534\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-080721-1024x534.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3493\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-080721-1024x534.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-080721-300x156.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-080721-768x401.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-080721.png 1507w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Surface weather station observations for Arizona and New Mexico at 6:00 am, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/wrh\/hazards?&amp;zoom=8&amp;scroll_zoom=false&amp;center=32.656025851099066,-110.76888628244107&amp;boundaries=false,true,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&amp;tab=observation&amp;hazard=true&amp;hazard_type=all&amp;hazard_opacity=80&amp;obs=true&amp;obs_type=weather&amp;elements=temp,wind,gust&amp;temp_filter=-80,130&amp;gust_filter=0,150&amp;rh_filter=0,100&amp;elev_filter=-300,14000&amp;precip_filter=0.01,30&amp;obs_popup=false&amp;obs_density=60&amp;obs_provider=ALL\">NWS<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Also, the threshold of three consecutive days with a daily average dewpoint temperature greater than 54\u00b0F has been met as of Wednesday, July 8th. This, combined with the change in the predominant wind direction at 500 mb and the precipitable water values, means we&#8217;re in the monsoon season now! <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"882\" height=\"637\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-84.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3519\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.3846153381812014;width:612px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-84.png 882w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-84-300x217.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-84-768x555.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 882px) 100vw, 882px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Daily average dewpoint temperatures at Tucson Airport, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/twc\/Monsoon\">NWS Tucson<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Velocity Azimuth Display wind profile from Yuma&nbsp;this morning&nbsp;at 4:14&nbsp;am&nbsp;is below. Another thunderstorm outflow, even higher than Friday, with winds up to 5000 feet (~150 m). Unlike yesterday, this one will not cool the boundary layer since moisture is already present.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"742\" height=\"777\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-79.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3495\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-79.png 742w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-79-286x300.png 286w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 742px) 100vw, 742px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Velocity Azimuth Display wind profile from Yuma, July 11th at 4:14 am, College of DuPage<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 250mb, the monsoon ridge has moved into southeast Arizona and is forecast to move north of Phoenix later today, providing an easterly flow across southern Arizona.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"842\" height=\"862\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-081944.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3499\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9768009629352405;width:610px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-081944.png 842w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-081944-293x300.png 293w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-081944-768x786.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 842px) 100vw, 842px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 500mb, the monsoon ridge is elongated from the Las Vegas area to Santa Fe. A broad easterly flow is well established from south of the ridge axis.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"850\" height=\"861\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-092350.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3513\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9744815917678332;width:612px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-092350.png 850w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-092350-296x300.png 296w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-092350-768x778.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 850px) 100vw, 850px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 700 mb, the Monsoon high has moved into the Four Corners, with a broad east flow from the Big Bend to Southern California. Two easterly waves are as indicated with the best moisture in the Sierra Madre mountain range south of Arizona and in South Central Texas.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"847\" height=\"857\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-092542.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3514\" style=\"aspect-ratio:0.9976444457814775;width:632px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-092542.png 847w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-092542-296x300.png 296w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-092542-768x777.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 847px) 100vw, 847px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forecast soundings for Phoenix at 6 pm (below, left) and Tucson at 5 pm (below, right) show that Tucson has the most unstable sounding. The skewT for Tucson is a classic thunderstorm sounding, with a combination of severe-weather predictors: 900 [J\/kg] CAPE, good wind shear between inflows from the northwest and storm propagation to the southwest, and 40mm of precipitable water. The forecast convective temperature in Tucson is 103\u00b0F, which should be reached this afternoon. The predicted hazards include wind gusts and heavy rain. Phoenix sounding still does not support thunderstorms in the valley, and thermal wind is from the east at 5 knots. Thunderstorms on the mountains may produce outflows that lead to precipitation in the valleys.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"575\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-082547-1024x575.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3501\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-082547-1024x575.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-082547-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-082547-768x431.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-082547.png 1402w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast sounding for Phoenix at 6 pm (left) and for Tucson at 5 pm today.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The&nbsp;forecast&nbsp;radar&nbsp;reflectivity&nbsp;and&nbsp;wind&nbsp;animation&nbsp;below&nbsp;shows storms developing from central Pima County eastward into Santa Cruz and eastern Pima County, as well as Graham and Cochise counties. Pima, Santa Cruz, and Graham counties will have wind gusts up to 60 mph, heavy rain from slow-moving storms, and additional storm development in the evening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"562\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1730 \/ 562;\" width=\"1730\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/20260711-1556-59.4982129.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left) and 10-meter wind speed (right) forecast from 2 pm today to 3:30 am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Precipitation totals vary between consecutive runs of HRRR-UA WRF at 12Z (left below) and 15Z (right below). Both have totals above 0.5&#8243; in the Tucson metro area, and the 15Z has totals above 1.5&#8243; extending further east into Pinal County.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"335\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-85-1024x335.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3521\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-85-1024x335.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-85-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-85-768x251.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-85-1536x503.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-85.png 1732w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z (left) and 15Z (right) accumulated precipitation through to 5 am Saturday morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"323\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-86-1024x323.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3522\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-86-1024x323.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-86-300x95.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-86-768x242.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-86-1536x485.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-86.png 1727w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z (left) and 15Z (right) accumulated precipitation through to 5 am Saturday morning, for Pima County.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The UA WRF ensemble forecast shows ensemble mean accumulated precipitation of 0.5&#8243; at Tucson airport for this event, though the ensemble range is from 0.1&#8243; to 0.85&#8243;. There is potential for some localized flooding if the ensemble mean or greater occurs.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"271\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-82-1024x271.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3508\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-82-1024x271.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-82-300x80.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-82-768x204.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-82-1536x407.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-82.png 1800w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">UA WRF ensemble forecasts for accumulated precipitation at Tucson Airport, <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasting.energy.arizona.edu\/forecast\/public\/\">PFG public page<\/a> under Environmental Data &gt; KTUS<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forecast soundings for Phoenix tomorrow at 3:30 pm&nbsp;(below, left) and for Tucson at 12 pm (below, right) show that Phoenix&nbsp;now has a sounding that can support thunderstorms. 0- 6 km mean wind for Tucson has storm motion at around 15 knots to the west, and Phoenix is at 10 mph, west-northwest. There&#8217;s good CAPE and precipitable water, but wind shear isn&#8217;t too great with inflows, storm propagation, and anvils all going in the same direction. <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"572\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-091545-1024x572.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3509\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-091545-1024x572.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-091545-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-091545-768x429.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-091545.png 1410w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast sounding for Phoenix at 3:30 pm (left) and for Tucson at 12 pm tomorrow.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Tucson storms have lower potential for severity, but storms arriving in Phoenix in the late afternoon will be associated with severe weather as they move all the way to the Colorado River before dissipating. Tucson may see additional storms during the evening.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video aligncenter\"><video height=\"562\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1730 \/ 562;\" width=\"1730\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/20260711-1621-18.6325340.mp4\" playsinline><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left) and 10-meter wind speed (right) forecast from 12:30 pm today to 2:30 am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sunday\u2019s storms will cool the boundary layer for a few days, and storms on Monday will mostly be limited to the mountains and downstream, as the storms will move west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph. Thunderstorms will be more scattered and less organized, meaning localized precipitation. <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"335\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-83-1024x335.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3515\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-83-1024x335.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-83-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-83-768x252.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-83-1536x503.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/image-83.png 1731w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left) and 10-meter wind speed (right) forecast for Monday at 2pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The GEFS global model ensemble indicates that after this weekend, an odd storm or two are expected next week, with some potential drying by next weekend.&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"390\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-093734-1024x390.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3516\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-093734-1024x390.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-093734-300x114.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-093734-768x292.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-093734-1536x585.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-11-093734.png 1931w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble forecasts of total accumulated precipitation <a href=\"https:\/\/www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov\/users\/meg\/gefs_plumes\/index.html?stationname=KTUS\">EMC\/NCAR<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Discussion written by Pat Holbrook and Patrick Bunn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary Moisture has increased, and the monsoon ridge has moved to favor easterly flow, bringing unstable conditions, especially to Tucson, which is forecast to experience severe thunderstorms with high winds and heavy rainfall. Phoenix is expected to remain mostly dry today, though mountain storms may send outflows into the valleys. UA WRF forecasts show storms &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[8],"class_list":["post-3484","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-8"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3484","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3484"}],"version-history":[{"count":22,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3484\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3531,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3484\/revisions\/3531"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3484"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3484"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3484"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}