{"id":3082,"date":"2026-06-26T17:13:35","date_gmt":"2026-06-26T17:13:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=3082"},"modified":"2026-06-26T17:14:31","modified_gmt":"2026-06-26T17:14:31","slug":"high-winds-and-low-humidity-for-the-next-few-days-red-flag-warning-for-most-of-the-region-june-26th-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=3082","title":{"rendered":"High winds and low humidity for the next few days; red flag warning for most of the region: June 26th, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Yesterday’s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The moisture axes that have been predominant over the last 10 days are changing. The moisture axis further west is bringing in less moisture than yesterday, and the one on the east has shifted further east.<\/p>\n\n\n

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GOES-19 upper-level water vapor images from June 24th at 7:30 am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The 12Z\u00a0HRRR-UA WRF (left) forecast total precipitation through 5 am this morning versus observed precipitation (right). The heaviest rain was just southeast of Benson, where a location had three individual storms that accumulated just over an inch.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n

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HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast (left) and corresponding observed precipitation from MRMS (right)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The forecast location of the storms in Pima County was too far east, and storms did form in Pima and southeast Pinal Counties. This is similar to what occurred on June 17th<\/sup>, only there was less moisture yesterday. Why the model had the same problem with storm locations in both cases is unknown, but it may be due to a lack of upper-air soundings from Tucson. The HRRR model is used to initialize the WRF, and it has a similar problem of placing storms too far east. <\/p>\n\n\n\n