{"id":2869,"date":"2026-06-17T16:45:04","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T16:45:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=2869"},"modified":"2026-06-17T16:47:43","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T16:47:43","slug":"surface-moisture-from-the-gulf-of-california-clear-morning-skies-for-surface-heating-and-cool-500mb-temps-provide-ingredients-for-an-active-late-afternoon-for-se-arizona-june-17th-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=2869","title":{"rendered":"Surface moisture from the Gulf of California, clear morning skies for surface heating, and cool 500mb temps provide ingredients for an active late afternoon for SE Arizona: June 17th, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Yesterday’s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The 24-hour total precipitation from the HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast and the corresponding MRMS observations are shown below. The forecast did a decent job in southern Arizona, but missed the storms in the Mogollon Rim and in western Arizona south of I-10. Despite convection initiating in the model in these locations, the precipitation accumulations were missed. The amount of precipitation in the storms near Sells was underestimated, too.  <\/p>\n\n\n

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HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast 24-hour accumulated precipitation (left); observed 24-hour accumulated precipitation for AZ\/NM (right) from MRMS <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The visible satellite images are shown below with GLM lightning strikes overlaid. With strong westerlies aloft, the anvils were blown east of the actual storm, whereas the lightning strikes indicate the location of the actual rain. The storms ended by 10 pm. <\/p>\n\n\n\n