{"id":2739,"date":"2025-11-14T18:02:22","date_gmt":"2025-11-14T18:02:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=2739"},"modified":"2025-11-14T19:13:57","modified_gmt":"2025-11-14T19:13:57","slug":"wet-weather-late-saturday-through-monday-morning-november-14th-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=2739","title":{"rendered":"Wet Weather Late Saturday Through Monday Morning: November 14th, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Overview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

An upper-level trough (closed low) off the coast of Southern California will move northeastward across the Southwest US this weekend, bringing precipitation chances to Arizona. The rainfall is predicted to be light, ranging from trace amounts to 0.25 inches in the lower deserts and 0.5 to 1 inch across the higher terrain of Northern Arizona. Snow levels will remain above 7000 feet, and snow accumulations ranging from a dusting to a couple of inches are possible over the tallest mountain peaks. In addition, a few thunderstorms are possible mainly west of Phoenix due to weak instability. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Model forecasts show another upper-level trough impacting the region mid-to-late next week, creating another chance of precipitation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Current conditions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

As of 7:30 am this morning, mid-level water vapor imagery displays a plume of deep tropical moisture being transported into Southern California.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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GOES19 mid level water vapor imagery from November 11th at 7:30am, College of DuPage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This atmospheric river is due to a deepening upper-level trough off the coast of California.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Global Forecast System 06Z analysis, 500mb cyclonic vorticity and heights, Tropical Tidbits<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The amount of deep tropical moisture being transported into Southern California is quite impressive, as indicated by the San Diego (NKX) sounding from 5 am, which measured 1.36 inches of precipitable water.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Weather balloon sounding for San Diego at 5am, SPC<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In fact, checking the San Diego sounding climatology, this observation breaks the daily record for precipitable water! <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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San Diego sounding climatology for 12Z (observation is largest marker in dark grey), SPC<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Dynamics this weekend<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The upper-level trough is expected to deepen over the next 24 hours due to an area of cyclonic shear vorticity (jet max) upstream of the trough axis moving into the base of the trough. <\/p>\n\n\n\n