{"id":2674,"date":"2025-09-18T19:14:39","date_gmt":"2025-09-18T19:14:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=2674"},"modified":"2025-09-19T04:55:34","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T04:55:34","slug":"outflow-from-tropical-storm-mario-taps-moisture-in-the-region-causing-a-microburst-yesterday-and-an-uptick-in-storms-for-the-next-two-days-september-18th-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=2674","title":{"rendered":"Outflow from tropical storm Mario taps moisture in the region, causing a microburst yesterday and an uptick in storms for the next two days: September 18th, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Yesterday, Tucson was hit with a strong microburst as captured by our cloud camera. The sub-tropical high, or monsoon ridge, is well to our south in Mexico so we are not in a monsoon flow pattern. Instead, Arizona was in a region of weak upper-level divergence, between two troughs, one off the west coast and one impacting the mid-west. This coupled to the moisture in place and the synoptic scale push from remnants of tropical storm Mario aided in thunderstorm development yesterday. It was highly uncertain as to whether the storms could develop in spite of the mid-level cloud cover, but the favorable wind shear meant storms that persisted on the Catalina mountains eventually propagated to the south. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"860\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1558 \/ 860;\" width=\"1558\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Recording-2025-09-18-103445.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Cloud camera images from yesterday looking north at the Catalina mountains.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The Rainlog 24-hour precipitation totals show that around 1.5\u201d fell in mid-town Tucson, and Marana got over 0.5\u201d and Oro Valley over 0.25\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"737\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-18-102923-1024x737.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2676\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-18-102923-1024x737.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-18-102923-300x216.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-18-102923-768x553.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-18-102923.png 1133w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">24-hour precipitation accumulations from Rainlog gauges for Tucson.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Shown below are the 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast from yesterday\u2019s HRRR-UA WRF 12Z&nbsp;(left)&nbsp;and observations from MRMS (right). The doughnut hole around Tucson, was the big miss in the forecast and elsewhere the main activity was along the Arizona\/Mexico border and in the higher elevations of New Mexico. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"329\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-18-105420-1024x329.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2677\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-18-105420-1024x329.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-18-105420-300x96.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-18-105420-768x247.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-18-105420-1536x493.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-18-105420.png 1737w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour precipitation accumulation forecast from yesterday (left) versus observed 24-hour precipitation accumulation from MRMS multi-sensor data (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Zooming into just Pima County, we see the forecast totals for the Catalina\u2019s and central Pima County were reasonable, but the storms in western Pima County and Tucson metro were missed in the forecast. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"324\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-18-105528-1024x324.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2678\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-18-105528-1024x324.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-18-105528-300x95.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-18-105528-768x243.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-18-105528-1536x487.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-18-105528.png 1727w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour precipitation accumulation forecast from yesterday (left) versus observed 24-hour precipitation accumulation from MRMS multi-sensor data (right), zoomed in for Pima County.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Model forecasts earlier in the week captured the event better, but closer to the event the forecasts backed off. The animation below shows the precipitation accumulation forecasts through to 8pm yesterday. The best forecast being from&nbsp;HRRR-UA WRF 12Z on Tuesday 16<sup>th<\/sup>, so the day-ahead forecast. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"746\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1134 \/ 746;\" width=\"1134\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Recording-2025-09-18-112800.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF forecasts valid at 8pm September 17th, comparing initializations that going back in time. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The atmosphere is likely worked over from the storms yesterday, so there are less chances of a similar event today. The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast sounding shows there is enough precipitable water and Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) today, but the mid-level wind means storm propagation will be to the north-east. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"701\" height=\"797\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-18-113458.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2682\" style=\"width:573px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-18-113458.png 701w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-18-113458-264x300.png 264w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 701px) 100vw, 701px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast sounding for Tucson at 5pm this afternoon.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The best chance of storms reaching Tucson will be from cells forming on the Tucson mountains and south to Green Valley, moving north\/east in the early evening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"750\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1132 \/ 750;\" width=\"1132\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Recording-2025-09-18-113743.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity forecast from 1:30pm this afternoon to 2:30am tomorrow morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Tomorrow the outflow from remnants tropical storm Mario comes into the region from the southwest. It aids in storm development between Phoenix and Flagstaff, and the White Mountains, tomorrow morning. There are greater chances of precipitation for the Tucson metro area tomorrow, as an isolated cell in this southwesterly flow could result in a direct hit to the Tucson metro area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"752\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1136 \/ 752;\" width=\"1136\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Recording-2025-09-18-115536.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity forecast from tomorrow at 3am to 11:30pm in the evening.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The 48-hour precipitation accumulation forecast from HRRR-UA WRF 12Z, shows over 1\u201d of rain for the complex terrain near Prescott and also on the Mogollon Rim. Slightly less for the mountainous regions of southeast Arizona. The stronger CAPE, compared to today, means storms will initiate on the mountains and the southwesterly flow will propagate them away from the mountains. The strong flow means flash flooding is less likely, unless there\u2019s training of storms, where cells form over the same area repeatedly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"674\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-18-115840-1024x674.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2685\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-18-115840-1024x674.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-18-115840-300x197.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-18-115840-768x505.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-18-115840.png 1128w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 48-hour precipitation accumulation through to Satruday morning at 5am. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Discussion written by Pat Holbrook and Patrick Bunn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yesterday&#8217;s Weather Yesterday, Tucson was hit with a strong microburst as captured by our cloud camera. The sub-tropical high, or monsoon ridge, is well to our south in Mexico so we are not in a monsoon flow pattern. Instead, Arizona was in a region of weak upper-level divergence, between two troughs, one off the west &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2674","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2674","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2674"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2674\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2696,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2674\/revisions\/2696"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2674"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2674"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2674"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}