{"id":258,"date":"2025-06-17T17:52:34","date_gmt":"2025-06-17T17:52:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=258"},"modified":"2025-06-17T17:55:08","modified_gmt":"2025-06-17T17:55:08","slug":"hottest-week-of-the-year-so-far-june-17th-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=258","title":{"rendered":"Hottest week of the year so far: June 17th, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Yesterday’s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Fairly quiet overall for the Southwest. A few storms formed in Eastern New Mexico but they were weak with only minor microbursts less than 30 kts. Arizona saw 110+ F temperatures in the deserts due to subsidence. \u202f <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

250 mb shows strong westerly winds continue across the region dragging in dry air across the region. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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At 500 mb, the upper level ridge is still north of Guaymas with westerlies over the region. Warm air aloft is also spreading across the region with temperatues of -5C. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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At 700 mb, the ridge is west of Guaymas and extends into the Pacific acoss the Baja Peninsula. Very dry air is on the north side of the ridge with Phoenix sounding showing dewpoint temperature of -14C.  At the surface,  a weak cold front is dropping south across far northeast New Mexico. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The National Weather Service in Tucson has shifted the 12Z sounding to 18Z for the monsoon. The Phoenix sounding shows no CAPE with very dry air aloft. When using this and other similar soundings its best to used mixed layer CAPE as it smooths out the \u201cbad\u201d data such as the high surface dew point that is there from modification of the boundary layer from irrigation sprinkler systems. Also, when we actually get storms they will also modify the sounding. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The dry air aloft is suppressing convection across the region. The front in northeast New Mexico moves southward and will move down to southeast New Mexico by Wednesday morning. There is an increase in CAPE but it cannot overcome the CIN from all the dry air aloft so no thunderstorms will be able to form. The rest the area will remain free of convection and will have to deal with the hot temperatures. <\/p>\n\n\n\n