{"id":2401,"date":"2025-08-30T17:49:38","date_gmt":"2025-08-30T17:49:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=2401"},"modified":"2025-08-30T21:47:44","modified_gmt":"2025-08-30T21:47:44","slug":"hot-and-dry-today-in-arizona-with-scattered-storms-in-east-new-mexico-mositure-moving-east-into-arizona-tomorrow-increases-the-chance-of-rainfall-in-se-arizona-august-30th-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=2401","title":{"rendered":"Hot and dry today in Arizona, with scattered storms in east New Mexico. Mositure moving east into Arizona tomorrow increases the chance of rainfall in SE Arizona: August 30th, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Yesterday was a mostly quiet day in Arizona with only isolated storms mainly in the mountains over the eastern third of the state. New Mexico had mainly mountain storms in most of the state, but a back door surface cold front was a focal point for thunderstorms in the eastern part of the state. A back door cold front is a weather pattern that affects eastern New Mexico, where a low pressure systems pushes a cold front from the north-northeast down into the eastern part of the state where elevation decreases into west Texas. The thunderstorms associated with this cold front moved east into Texas and overnight formed a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). Strong wind gusts were observed with these storms of over 50 mph.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"816\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1282 \/ 816;\" width=\"1282\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Recording-2025-08-30-092036.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES19 infrared satellite images from August 29th from 12pm to 5am this morning, College of DuPage<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Yesterday\u2019s HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecast is on the left and equivalent observations from MRMS on the right. Most of the precipitation in the northern half of Arizona and northwest New Mexico fell between 5am and&nbsp;10am&nbsp;yesterday and was associated with the storms that occurred Thursday night and Friday morning. Very little new precipitation fell in these areas Friday afternoon through to this morning. As for the rest of the region, the forecast versus observed precipitation was in fair agreement.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"333\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-092245-1024x333.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2405\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-092245-1024x333.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-092245-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-092245-768x250.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-092245-1536x500.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-092245.png 1736w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour precipitation accumulation forecast from yesterday (left) versus observed 24-hour precipitation accumulation from MRMS multi-sensor data (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Dry air is moving into western and northern Arizona and northern New Mexico. Moisture has increased in southern and southwest New Mexico, as shown by the observed surface dewpoint temperatures below.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"530\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-092733-1024x530.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2406\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-092733-1024x530.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-092733-300x155.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-092733-768x398.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-092733.png 1523w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Surface weather station observations for Arizona and New Mexico at 9am, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/wrh\/hazards?&amp;zoom=8&amp;scroll_zoom=false&amp;center=32.656025851099066,-110.76888628244107&amp;boundaries=false,true,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&amp;tab=observation&amp;hazard=true&amp;hazard_type=all&amp;hazard_opacity=80&amp;obs=true&amp;obs_type=weather&amp;elements=temp,wind,gust&amp;temp_filter=-80,130&amp;gust_filter=0,150&amp;rh_filter=0,100&amp;elev_filter=-300,14000&amp;precip_filter=0.01,30&amp;obs_popup=false&amp;obs_density=60&amp;obs_provider=ALL\">NWS<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The observed sounding from Phoenix at 5am shows drying as precipitable water has fallen to 1.15 inches. The boundary layer has a cap (inversion) at 600mb. For surface convection to break this cap in the afternoon, the temperature would need to be above 102\u00b0F. Max temperature from the sounding is only 99\u00b0F. The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z initialization is similar, though the inversion is smoothed out at little in the model vertical levels and precipitable  water is slightly less in the initialization, but within the bounds of measurement uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"584\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-093401-1024x584.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2407\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-093401-1024x584.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-093401-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-093401-768x438.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-093401.png 1398w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z initialization at 5am this morning (left), observed sounding from Phoenix at 5am this morning (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The cold front is a little hard to find on the visible satellite image,&nbsp;but it\u2019s close to the southern side of the cloud shield on the border of New Mexico and Texas,&nbsp;as shown. Also, an axis of monsoon moisture is shown.&nbsp;Tomorrow easterly low-level winds set up and moisture in this axis&nbsp;area will move into Arizona.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"681\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-100350-1024x681.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2408\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-100350-1024x681.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-100350-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-100350-768x511.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-100350.png 1252w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES19 visible satellite images from August 30th at 7am, College of DuPage<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>At 250mb, the high-pressure ridge has moved east and is near Midland, Texas. The ridge is being pushed east as the trough in Wyoming moves eastward.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"842\" height=\"857\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-101146.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2409\" style=\"width:620px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-101146.png 842w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-101146-295x300.png 295w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-101146-768x782.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 842px) 100vw, 842px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Westerly winds of 20 to 30 knots are across northern half of Arizona and New Mexico at 500mb. Weaker winds are near the two centers of the high-pressure ridge; one center over Texas and the other south of Nogales. Warm air aloft, around -4\u00b0C, is over southern Arizona extending into north central New Mexico (pink to white colors on the graphic below). Such warm air will inhibit convective parcels that reach this vertical level.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"845\" height=\"861\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-101212.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2410\" style=\"width:618px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-101212.png 845w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-101212-294x300.png 294w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-101212-768x783.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 845px) 100vw, 845px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>At 700mb, moisture is from west Texas into southeast Arizona this morning and will begin moving westward later today and into southeast Arizona tomorrow. This will help increase thunderstorms in Arizona tomorrow and Monday, but after significant drying occurs for the the remainder of the week.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"850\" height=\"862\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-101232.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2411\" style=\"width:622px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-101232.png 850w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-101232-296x300.png 296w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-101232-768x779.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 850px) 100vw, 850px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast has storms near the international border in Cochise County, although storms could be as far north as the Chiricahua mountains in the east and Tombstone\/Sierra Vista in the western part of the county. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"754\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1132 \/ 754;\" width=\"1132\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Recording-2025-08-30-101721.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity forecast from 2pm this afternoon to 2:30am tomorrow morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Some isolated thunderstorms are forecast for eastern New Mexico, with scattered areas of greater than 0.5&#8243; precipitation totals in parts of the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"671\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-102111-1024x671.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2415\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-102111-1024x671.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-102111-300x196.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-102111-768x503.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-102111.png 1133w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z total accumulated precipitation through to 5am tomorrow morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Moisture moves into southeast Arizona from the east. An increase&nbsp;Covective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is shown in the forecast sounding from Nogales at 2pm, indicating that storms will form in the early afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"698\" height=\"792\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-103517.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2416\" style=\"width:536px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-103517.png 698w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-103517-264x300.png 264w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 698px) 100vw, 698px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast sounding for Nogales Sunday afternoon at 3pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z radar reflectivity forecasts thunderstorms forming in Nogales and eastern Pima County in the afternoon, but they don\u2019t quite move into Tucson. Later in the afternoon, storms also form in Graham County and western New Mexico, and sweep south-southwest to the deserts edge by evening. The outflows from these are strong enough to overcome the Convective Inhibition (CIN)&nbsp;and as a result storms then begin to form over the Catalina and Rincon mountains and moving into Tucson.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"564\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1730 \/ 564;\" width=\"1730\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Recording-2025-08-30-103909.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left), 10 meter wind speed (right), forecast from 1pm to 2:30am Monday morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The strong outflows from Sunday night\u2019s storms will reduce CAPE in the lower deserts, so there will be fewer storms on Monday. Also, low-level easterly flow will bring dry air into southeast Arizona, and a Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) will form south of Nogales spreading clouds and light showers over southern Arizona. Some isolated storms do form in the White Mountains northwest to Flagstaff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"676\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-104330-1024x676.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2420\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-104330-1024x676.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-104330-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-104330-768x507.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-104330.png 1133w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity forecast for Monday at 3pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The GEFS plume forecast&nbsp;still estimates minimal precipitation next week with storms affecting the area next weekend as a Tropical Storm moves close to the southern tip of Baja California. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"963\" height=\"741\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-104557.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2422\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-104557.png 963w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-104557-300x231.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-30-104557-768x591.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 963px) 100vw, 963px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov\/users\/meg\/gefs_plumes\/index.html?stationname=KTUS\">plumes<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Discussion written by Pat Holbrook and Patrick Bunn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yesterday&#8217;s Weather Yesterday was a mostly quiet day in Arizona with only isolated storms mainly in the mountains over the eastern third of the state. New Mexico had mainly mountain storms in most of the state, but a back door surface cold front was a focal point for thunderstorms in the eastern part of the &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2401","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2401","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2401"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2401\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2426,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2401\/revisions\/2426"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2401"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2401"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2401"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}