{"id":2209,"date":"2025-08-23T18:02:01","date_gmt":"2025-08-23T18:02:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=2209"},"modified":"2025-08-23T18:02:01","modified_gmt":"2025-08-23T18:02:01","slug":"storms-stay-out-of-metro-areas-for-the-next-two-days-possible-overnight-showers-sunday-night-august-23rd-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=2209","title":{"rendered":"Storms stay out of metro areas for the next two days; possible overnight showers Sunday night: August 23rd, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Subsidence combined with a very dry-low level atmosphere forced most of the thunderstorms north of I-10 from Phoenix west to the California border and agreed well with the forecast. The low-level water vapor satellite loop shows\u00a0dark blue to white shaded areas where storms were favored, while the yellow\/red areas are too dry to support storms. Low-level pushes of moisture near the northern Gulf of California resulted in some storms in that area too. Overnight rotation of the moisture about the high pressure\u00a0ridge has pushed the moisture boundary about 100 miles to the south in New Mexico and north about half as much in Arizona. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"828\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1286 \/ 828;\" width=\"1286\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Recording-2025-08-23-085741.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES19 infrared satellite images from August 22nd 1pm to 8:30am this morning, College of DuPage<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The gridded 24-hour accumulated precipitation map from MRMS\u00a0is below on the right and shows most precipitation was less than a quarter inch with isolated one-inch amounts in the mountains. The precipitation in the Phoenix metro area was more like sprinkles, while the Prescott Valley had up to a half inch.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"334\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-090035-1024x334.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2212\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-090035-1024x334.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-090035-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-090035-768x250.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-090035-1536x500.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-090035.png 1728w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour precipitation accumulation forecast from yesterday (left) versus observed 24-hour precipitation accumulation from MRMS multi-sensor data (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking at the surface dewpoint temperature observations from this morning, significant drying of the near-surface atmosphere has occurred, especially in eastern and southern New Mexico extending into southeast Arizona.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-093131-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2214\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-093131-1024x511.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-093131-300x150.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-093131-768x383.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-093131-1536x766.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-093131.png 1550w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Surface weather station observations for Arizona and New Mexico at 9:30am, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/wrh\/hazards?&amp;zoom=8&amp;scroll_zoom=false&amp;center=32.656025851099066,-110.76888628244107&amp;boundaries=false,true,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&amp;tab=observation&amp;hazard=true&amp;hazard_type=all&amp;hazard_opacity=80&amp;obs=true&amp;obs_type=weather&amp;elements=temp,wind,gust&amp;temp_filter=-80,130&amp;gust_filter=0,150&amp;rh_filter=0,100&amp;elev_filter=-300,14000&amp;precip_filter=0.01,30&amp;obs_popup=false&amp;obs_density=60&amp;obs_provider=ALL\">NWS<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The observed sounding from Phoenix at 5am (below, right) shows less of a subsidence inversion than yesterday and precipitable water is a little higher than the HRRR-UA WRF 12Z initialization (below, left). This sounding would indicate\u00a0thunderstorm development especially on the Mogollon Rim north of Phoenix and the <a href=\"https:\/\/glossary.ametsoc.org\/wiki\/Thermal_wind\">thermal wind<\/a> will have the storms moving to the northwest. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"577\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-093527-1024x577.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2216\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-093527-1024x577.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-093527-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-093527-768x433.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-093527.png 1233w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z initialization at 5am this morning (left), observed sounding from Phoenix at 5am this morning (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The visible satellite picture below shows mid-level clouds left over from last night\u2019s convection rotating clockwise (anticyclonic) about the high pressure ridge center. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"667\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-094042-1024x667.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2217\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-094042-1024x667.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-094042-300x196.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-094042-768x501.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-094042.png 1281w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES19 visible satellite images from August 23rd at 9:30am, College of DuPage<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT)\u00a0axes has two branches, one over the southeast United States extending west to the central Baja and the other in the Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. The\u00a0lows on the TUTT axes are annotated.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"661\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-094916-1024x661.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2219\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-094916-1024x661.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-094916-300x194.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-094916-768x495.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-094916.png 1282w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES19 upper level water vapor images from August 23rd 9:30am, College of DuPage<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>At 250mb, a trough is in the Pacific off the west coast of California. The TUTT to our south spans from Texas to the Baja. These two troughs may combine over the next few days. The high pressure ridge has stayed in about the same location as yesterday, but is being pushed on by the troughs. The high pressure subtropical ridge will eventually move eastward into Texas in a few days.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"735\" height=\"746\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-101213.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2221\" style=\"width:617px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-101213.png 735w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-101213-296x300.png 296w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 735px) 100vw, 735px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The ridge at 500mb has moved a little further north into southern Utah. Wind speeds have decreased underneath the ridge, so storm motion will be a little slower today. \u00a0Warmer air is over southeast Arizona and will inhibit convection there. By tomorrow, cooler air from northeast New Mexico will move over southern Arizona.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"735\" height=\"747\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-101900.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2223\" style=\"width:617px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-101900.png 735w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-101900-295x300.png 295w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 735px) 100vw, 735px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>At 700mb, there has not been much change since yesterday and dewpoint temperatures at this level are around 4\u00b0C across the region. Given that the subsidence will be less today in some areas, we should see more storms especially west of Tucson.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"737\" height=\"750\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-102139.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2224\" style=\"width:627px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-102139.png 737w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-102139-295x300.png 295w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 737px) 100vw, 737px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The forecast sounding for Phoenix at 4pm this afternoon\u00a0shows some Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE); likely enough for thunderstorms north of the metro area in the mountains, but probably not enough\u00a0in the metro area itself. Tucson still has too much subsidence forecast to get thunderstorms today (at 500mb on the 1pm forecast sounding below, right).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"578\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-102959-1024x578.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-102959-1024x578.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-102959-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-102959-768x434.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-102959.png 1233w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast sounding for Phoenix at 4pm this afternoon(left), and Tucson 1pm (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Lukeville sounding has plenty of CAPE and storms will probably develop in the Sells area and move west.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"612\" height=\"690\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-103509.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2228\" style=\"width:556px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-103509.png 612w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-103509-266x300.png 266w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast sounding for Lukeville, AZ at 4pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast radar reflectivity for today has storms across northern Arizona and in central and western Pima County.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"736\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1114 \/ 736;\" width=\"1114\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Recording-2025-08-23-103734.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity forecast from 1pm this afternoon to 2:30am tomorrow morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The location of the storms is forecast to be in about the same places as today, with an increase in intensity in northwest New Mexico. \u00a0The difference is the ridge weakens, and overnight storms develop in southeast Arizona. The thunderstorms move westward across the region with some storms in Phoenix on Monday morning. Some of the storms may be aided by the surge of moisture in western Arizona.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"734\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1114 \/ 734;\" width=\"1114\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Recording-2025-08-23-104326.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity forecast for tomorrow at 9:30am to 2:30am Monday morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>By Monday afternoon thunderstorms develop across northern Arizona, northern New Mexico and especially in central Pima County. Outflow boundaries from the Pima County storms will aid in late afternoon and evening storms across the low deserts. From Tucson east into Cochise County, it does not appear moisture moves into the area, but outflow from storms may increase low-level moisture anyway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"335\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-105633-1024x335.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2233\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-105633-1024x335.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-105633-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-105633-768x252.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-105633-1536x503.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-105633.png 1731w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left), 10 meter wind speed (right), forecast for Monday at 4:30pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The GEFS plume forecast predicts a few days of precipitation through mid-week (26<sup>th \u00a0<\/sup>to 28<sup>th<\/sup> August), but a drying off again for the following weekend. Note the scale is exaggerated by some heavy rain from a few members. But the mean precipitation of a half inch is believable, though uncertainty is high this far out into a forecast. We will probably have another round of storms next week as the monsoon winds down.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"968\" height=\"746\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-105915.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2234\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-105915.png 968w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-105915-300x231.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-23-105915-768x592.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 968px) 100vw, 968px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov\/users\/meg\/gefs_plumes\/index.html?stationname=KTUS\">plumes<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Discussion written by Pat Holbrook and Patrick Bunn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yesterday&#8217;s Weather Subsidence combined with a very dry-low level atmosphere forced most of the thunderstorms north of I-10 from Phoenix west to the California border and agreed well with the forecast. The low-level water vapor satellite loop shows\u00a0dark blue to white shaded areas where storms were favored, while the yellow\/red areas are too dry to &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2209","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2209","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2209"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2209\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2235,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2209\/revisions\/2235"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2209"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2209"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2209"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}