{"id":1797,"date":"2025-08-13T17:52:56","date_gmt":"2025-08-13T17:52:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=1797"},"modified":"2025-08-13T22:20:40","modified_gmt":"2025-08-13T22:20:40","slug":"an-active-day-today-with-storms-moving-west-off-the-mountains-in-se-arizona-and-early-morning-rainfall-possible-for-phoenix-august-13th-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=1797","title":{"rendered":"An active day today with storms moving west off the mountains in SE Arizona and early morning rainfall possible for Phoenix: August 13th, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet another impressively large Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCC) developed last night in Sonora; a little further south than the one on Monday night. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"778\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 994 \/ 778;\" width=\"994\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Recording-2025-08-13-091303.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES19 infrared satellite images from August 12th 12pm to 7am this morning, College of DuPage<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Otherwise only isolated storms were across the sky islands of southeast Arizona and western New Mexico and some storms were along the Mogollon Rim extending\u00a0 west to south of Kingman and Prescott. The stronger storm south of Prescott weakened and moved southwest near Wickenburg and almost making it to I-10 halfway between Phoenix and the Arizona\/California border this morning.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"708\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-091651-1024x708.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1801\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-091651-1024x708.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-091651-300x207.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-091651-768x531.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-091651.png 1191w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES19 infrared satellite images from August 12th at 5pm, College of DuPage<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast from yesterday missed some of the 0.5&#8243; totals in Gila\/Coconino\/Graham counties, though complex terrain is where the radar data going into MRMS has the greatest reduction in accuracy. The spatial pattern was generally correct thought, especially in New Mexico. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"336\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-090611-1024x336.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1799\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-090611-1024x336.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-090611-300x99.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-090611-768x252.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-090611-1536x505.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-090611.png 1735w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour precipitation accumulation forecast from yesterday (left) versus observed 24-hour precipitation accumulation from MRMS multi-sensor data (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Rainlog data for yesterday had water in the rain buckets in Cochise County as well as the Nogales area. Tucson remained dry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"677\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-092116-1024x677.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1802\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-092116-1024x677.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-092116-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-092116-768x508.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-092116.png 1152w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Southeast Arizona 24-hour accumulated precipitation observations from <a href=\"https:\/\/rainlog.org\/map#8.71\/31.7751\/-110.2244\">Rainlog.org<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The surface observations below show the 50\u00b0F dewpoint temperature line has not changed much since yesterday. A minor surge is along the Colorado River from Yuma up to Blythe and this is most likely from the thunderstorm complex in Mexico last night.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"524\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-093226-1024x524.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1803\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-093226-1024x524.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-093226-300x154.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-093226-768x393.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-093226-1536x786.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-093226.png 1539w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Surface weather station observations for Arizona and New Mexico at 9:15am, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/wrh\/hazards?&amp;zoom=8&amp;scroll_zoom=false&amp;center=32.656025851099066,-110.76888628244107&amp;boundaries=false,true,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&amp;tab=observation&amp;hazard=true&amp;hazard_type=all&amp;hazard_opacity=80&amp;obs=true&amp;obs_type=weather&amp;elements=temp,wind,gust&amp;temp_filter=-80,130&amp;gust_filter=0,150&amp;rh_filter=0,100&amp;elev_filter=-300,14000&amp;precip_filter=0.01,30&amp;obs_popup=false&amp;obs_density=60&amp;obs_provider=ALL\">NWS<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The observed sounding for Phoenix at 5am has westerlies above 300mb with a northeast to east flow down to the boundary layer with light westerly winds below that. Precipitable water is up just a tad from yesterday and the layer between 750mb and 575mb shows a moisture increase. Convective inhibition (CIN) has increased due to some warming aloft.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"581\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-092418-1024x581.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1804\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-092418-1024x581.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-092418-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-092418-768x436.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-092418.png 1397w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z initialization at 5am this morning (left), observed sounding from Phoenix at 5am this morning (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The position of the tropical upper tropospheric troughs (TUTT) and the trough axis are shown below. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"673\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-092808-1024x673.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1805\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-092808-1024x673.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-092808-300x197.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-092808-768x505.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-092808.png 1283w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES19 upper level water vapor images from August 13th 9:10am, College of DuPage<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>There&#8217;s quite a complicated pattern at 250mb&nbsp;with three&nbsp;high pressure ridge centers and a couple of trough axis between them as indicated on the forecast initialization below.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"843\" height=\"858\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-094926.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1808\" style=\"width:598px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-094926.png 843w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-094926-295x300.png 295w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-094926-768x782.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 843px) 100vw, 843px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>At 500mb, winds across southeast Arizona are light and variable and increasing from the south at 10 to 15 mph in northern Arizona. The center of the 500mb ridge is over the Colorado\/New Mexico border with southeast flow across New Mexico. Temperatures were \u20139\u00b0C at both Flagstaff and Phoenix this morning which is colder than normal, and a good convective environment. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"846\" height=\"857\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-095509.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1809\" style=\"width:613px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-095509.png 846w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-095509-296x300.png 296w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-095509-768x778.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 846px) 100vw, 846px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>No significant change from yesterday at 700mb, except for westerly flow in New Mexico. Monsoonal deep easterlies are showing up again in Mexico and should strengthen over the next few days.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"853\" height=\"862\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-095533.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1810\" style=\"width:612px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-095533.png 853w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-095533-297x300.png 297w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-095533-768x776.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 853px) 100vw, 853px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The forecast soundings for Tucson (left) and Phoenix (right) are remarkably similar except storms forming in the Tucson area can move off the elevation to the west, because of the easterly winds above the boundary layer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"575\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-100624-1024x575.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1811\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-100624-1024x575.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-100624-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-100624-768x431.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-100624.png 1411w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast for Tucson today at 6:30pm (left), and Phoenix at 8:30pm (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Tucson may get some localized heavy rain in the valley during the early evening. Outflows from storms coming off the Mogollon Rim and the higher elevation at the international border are forecast to converge along I-10 between Tucson and Phoenix between 8 and 9pm. This could cause significant hazards along the interstate including blowing dust and localized heavy rain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"572\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1734 \/ 572;\" width=\"1734\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Recording-2025-08-13-101703.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left), 10 meter wind speed (right), forecast for today from 1pm to 2am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) that remains above the boundary layer in Phoenix will be used later in the night as an Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) will develop overnight as a result of the afternoon convection, and move northward towards Phoenix. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"671\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-102734-1024x671.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1815\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-102734-1024x671.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-102734-300x197.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-102734-768x503.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-102734.png 1137w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity forecast for tomorrow morning at 4:30am<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Vertical motion ahead of this circulation provides the lifting mechanism for night time convection. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"754\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1136 \/ 754;\" width=\"1136\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Recording-2025-08-13-103112.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity forecast for tomorrow morning from midnight to noon. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast irradiance for tomorrow at 10am shows cloud cover in Arizona and this will limit the heating in the atmosphere in the low desert areas and thus fewer storms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"684\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-103835-1024x684.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1823\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-103835-1024x684.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-103835-300x201.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-103835-768x513.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-103835.png 1131w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z global horizontal irradiance forecast for tomorrow at 10am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Outside of the area with the cloud cover in the morning, storms will start on the Sky Islands across both Arizona and New Mexico.\u00a0Some overnight storms will be near Phoenix around 2am (below, right).\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"334\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-103642-1024x334.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1821\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-103642-1024x334.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-103642-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-103642-768x251.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-103642-1536x501.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-103642.png 1737w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity forecast for tomorrow at 3pm (left) and 2am (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Models forecast a strong surge of moisture up the Gulf of California on Friday morning will help trigger an additional outbreak of storms both Friday and Saturday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"335\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-104332-1024x335.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1825\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-104332-1024x335.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-104332-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-104332-768x251.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-104332-1536x503.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-104332.png 1735w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 2-meter dewpoint (left), 10-meter wind speed (right), forecast for Friday August 15th at 5am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"681\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-104550-1024x681.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1826\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-104550-1024x681.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-104550-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-104550-768x510.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-104550.png 1133w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity forecast for Friday at 3:30pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, GEFS plume forecasts continue to imply we will be in an active monsoon period for the next week.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"962\" height=\"746\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-104734.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1827\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-104734.png 962w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-104734-300x233.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-13-104734-768x596.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 962px) 100vw, 962px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov\/users\/meg\/gefs_plumes\/index.html?stationname=KTUS\">plumes<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Discussion written by Pat Holbrook and Patrick Bunn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yesterday&#8217;s Weather Yet another impressively large Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCC) developed last night in Sonora; a little further south than the one on Monday night. Otherwise only isolated storms were across the sky islands of southeast Arizona and western New Mexico and some storms were along the Mogollon Rim extending\u00a0 west to south of Kingman &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1797","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1797","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1797"}],"version-history":[{"count":20,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1797\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1837,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1797\/revisions\/1837"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1797"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1797"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1797"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}