NWS<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\nThe tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) axis is indicated as\u00a0the black dashed line below with three TUTTs as indicated. Two tropical lows are annotated in green; one west of Manzanillo and the other south of Guatemala. These two lows may or may not develop into tropical systems, but should assist in the movement of moisture into Arizona as soon as Thursday.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\nGOES19 upper level water vapor images from August 5th 9:40am, College of DuPage<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\nThe sub-tropical ridge at 250mb is parked southeast of Douglas this morning. The general circulation has not changed much since yesterday with westerlies across the northern two thirds of the region and wind speeds near 40 knots decreasing to less than 5 knots near the ridge. A chunk of energy from the trough off the west coast is now moving over the ridge in Wyoming and Colorado.<\/p>\n\n\n
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At 500mb, the center of the ridge is displaced from the 250mb center and is now located east of El Paso. Some cooling is noted over Arizona probably due to increased moisture wrapping around the circulation from the storms in Mexico the last two days. Although not perfect this is becoming a more favorable circulation for the monsoon. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n
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In the 700mb initialization, the increase in moisture is evident over central and southern Arizona as the circulation around the high centered in the boot heel of New Mexico pulls monsoon moisture northward. Over the next several days the day-to-day moisture values increase and decrease some, but the general pattern does not change much.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n
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Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n Although mid-level moisture is available for storms to form over the mountains in Arizona, Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values are not that impressive at 200 [J\/kg]. Storms will have to deal with the dry air in the desert valley, a very hostile environment for the little moisture that is available. <\/p>\n\n\n
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HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast sounding for Tucson at 6pm today<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\nThe HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast radar reflectivity this afternoon shows storms extending from Nogales to the Catalina mountains north of Tucson. Other more isolated storms will form in the rest of the mountains in eastern Arizona. No significant wind gusts are expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/video>HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast radar reflectivity for today from 1pm to 11:30pm<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\nTomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n No increase in surface moisture is expected, while mid-level moisture in southern Arizona today moves north and increases precipitation in northeast Arizona and northwest New Mexico. Southern Arizona is left with popcorn thunderstorms that form and die rather quickly with the near record-breaking heat and are only good for a a lightning bolt or two and a few drops of rain. These storms will last until midnight.<\/p>\n\n\n\nHRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast radar reflectivity for tomorrow at 7pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\nOutlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n Through Thursday more near record breaking heat is expected with thunderstorms in the northern half of the region. No significant rain will occur; the threat is from the dry lightning associated with any storms that do develop.<\/p>\n\n\n\nHRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast radar reflectivity for Thursday at 2pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\nThe question for later this week is: what initiates the gulf surge forecast by the models into southern Arizona on Thursday? Is the surge coming from the storms\/low near Manzanillo or from the developing tropical system further to the southeast. The developing tropical system will move off the coast more than shown below, but the general idea is there. Either way, the overall pattern shows the return of good monsoon moisture with increased thunderstorm activity!<\/p>\n\n\n\nGOES19 infrared satellite images from August 5th at 10:20am, College of DuPage<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\nThe moisture surge forecast is shown below. Note that a surge arrives a day earlier at Empalme (Guaymas), Mexico, so all eyes\u00a0will be on the morning sounding tomorrow.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/video>HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast 10-meter wind speed (left), 2-meter dewpoint temperautre (right), Thursday at 3pm to Friday morning 1am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\nDiscussion written by Pat Holbrook and Patrick Bunn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Yesterday’s Weather A few thunderstorms developed in Santa Cruz County with a couple of rain buckets receiving precipitation. The visible imagery with lightning data showed the paucity of storms across the region. New Mexico was drier than the previous day and could not make storms even in the mountains. Analysis Surface station observations for this …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1530","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1530","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1530"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1530\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1551,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1530\/revisions\/1551"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1530"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1530"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1530"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}