{"id":1457,"date":"2025-08-02T18:35:30","date_gmt":"2025-08-02T18:35:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=1457"},"modified":"2025-08-02T18:35:30","modified_gmt":"2025-08-02T18:35:30","slug":"no-monsoon-moisture-for-the-next-week-august-2nd-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=1457","title":{"rendered":"No monsoon moisture for the next week: August 2nd, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Yesterday afternoon&#8217;s radar reflectivity shows thunderstorms were mainly near the mountains and storms that did move off the mountains only produced light rainfall in the valleys, except for far northeast New Mexico,. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"748\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1136 \/ 748;\" width=\"1136\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Recording-2025-08-02-101950.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Observed composite radar reflectivity from yesterday 12:00pm to midnight last night.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The Rainlog rainfall totals below shows the precipitation in the Tucson metro area. Most totals were less than two tenths of an inch.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"632\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-103228-1024x632.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1461\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-103228-1024x632.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-103228-300x185.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-103228-768x474.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-103228.png 1177w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">24-hour accumulated precipitation observations from <a href=\"https:\/\/rainlog.org\/map#8.71\/31.7751\/-110.2244\">Rainlog.org<\/a> on August 1st for Tucson metro<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>A tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) are shown below, mostly moving to the west and southwest underneath the ridge.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"569\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-104840-1024x569.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1463\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-104840-1024x569.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-104840-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-104840-768x427.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-104840.png 1372w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>At 250mb, the sub-tropical high pressure ridge is southwest of San Diego and the ridge axis extends east into West Texas. There is a <a href=\"https:\/\/glossary.ametsoc.org\/wiki\/Col\">col <\/a>over Texas associated with the TUTT low and an east coast ridge is centered over northern Florida\/southern Georgia. A strong jet axis has moved a little further north and runs from San Francisco to northern Colorado.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"841\" height=\"861\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-105317.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1465\" style=\"width:609px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-105317.png 841w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-105317-293x300.png 293w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-105317-768x786.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 841px) 100vw, 841px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The ridge center at 500mb has formed near Nogales this morning with an east-west ridge axis extending from West Texas to the Pacific Ocean. Winds are westerly across Arizona with weak flow to the south increasing to 15 to 20 knots over northern Arizona. In New Mexico the winds become more northerly behind a trough in the Great Plains.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"842\" height=\"855\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-105348.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1467\" style=\"width:621px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-105348.png 842w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-105348-295x300.png 295w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-105348-768x780.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 842px) 100vw, 842px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Today\u2019s HRRR-UA WRF 12Z model initializationat 700mb is below on the left with the 42-hour forecast for midnight Monday morning is below on the right. Dry air is moving into both states on the northside of the ridge and this should limit thunderstorm activity to the southern part of Arizona and New Mexico tomorrow.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-110502-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1468\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-110502-1024x511.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-110502-300x150.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-110502-768x384.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-110502-1536x767.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-110502.png 1722w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The HRRR-UA WRF 12Z model forecast sounding for Tucson this afternoon shows less moisture than yesterday and warming between 500 and 380 mb. Convective available potential energy (CAPE) values are less than 100 [J\/kg]. <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"705\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-111201.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1469\" style=\"width:627px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-111201.png 705w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-111201-266x300.png 266w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 705px) 100vw, 705px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Enough CAPE was on the forecast soundings at Nogales, San Simon, and El Paso to support thunderstorms over and near the mountains. The forecast radar for this afternoon shows the isolated thunderstorms with weak microbursts over southeast Arizona and New Mexico.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"756\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1138 \/ 756;\" width=\"1138\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Recording-2025-08-02-111503.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity for today from 1:30pm to 1am. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking at all the observed soundings in the southern portion of the region there wasn&#8217;t any CAPE except east of El Paso where a few thunderstorms will develop over the mountains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-112019-1024x683.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1471\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-112019-1024x683.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-112019-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-112019-768x512.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-112019.png 1127w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity for today from 1:30pm to 1am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Forecast radar reflectivity for Sunday and Monday is shown below. Kind of sad for being in the middle of the monsoon. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"335\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-112507-1024x335.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1472\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-112507-1024x335.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-112507-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-112507-768x251.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-112507-1536x502.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-112507.png 1731w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity at 6pm Monday and 5pm Tuesday.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The GEFS plumes for Tucson show there is potential for monsoon to restart in about a week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"981\" height=\"742\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-112926.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1473\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-112926.png 981w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-112926-300x227.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-112926-768x581.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 981px) 100vw, 981px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov\/users\/meg\/gefs_plumes\/index.html?stationname=KTUS\">plume<\/a> for Tucson.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The ECMWF surface dewpoint temperature for Monday August 11th shows an apparent gulf surge bringing monsoon moisture back into Arizona.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"998\" height=\"747\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-113230.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1474\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-113230.png 998w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-113230-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-02-113230-768x575.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 998px) 100vw, 998px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">ECMWF forecast dewpoint temperature for August 11th, College of DuPage<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Discussion written by Pat Holbrook<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yesterday&#8217;s Weather Yesterday afternoon&#8217;s radar reflectivity shows thunderstorms were mainly near the mountains and storms that did move off the mountains only produced light rainfall in the valleys, except for far northeast New Mexico,. The Rainlog rainfall totals below shows the precipitation in the Tucson metro area. Most totals were less than two tenths of &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1457","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1457","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1457"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1457\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1476,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1457\/revisions\/1476"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1457"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1457"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1457"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}