{"id":1289,"date":"2025-07-28T17:09:18","date_gmt":"2025-07-28T17:09:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=1289"},"modified":"2025-07-28T17:09:18","modified_gmt":"2025-07-28T17:09:18","slug":"a-final-encore-of-monsoon-thunderstorms-to-close-out-july-july-28th-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=1289","title":{"rendered":"A final encore of monsoon thunderstorms to close out July: July 28th, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Storms developed in New Mexico along the leading edge of the returning low-level moisture. Biggs Army Airfield north of El Paso received .45 inches of rain and some hail. Visibility was less than a mile and wind gusts to 45 mph, while El Paso International Airport had wind gusts to 49 mph. Some of the storms approached the Arizona border east of the Chiricahua mountains. Except for smoke from the Grand Canyon fires, Arizona enjoyed another day of hot and dry weather.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"792\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1236 \/ 792;\" width=\"1236\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Recording-2025-07-28-082838.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES19 visible satellite images from July 27th 9am to 8:30pm last night, College of DuPage<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) has continued to move westward as is near Durango, Mexico, while another TUTT is in the west central Gulf of Mexico and is moving faster to the west. A tropical wave extends along a north-south line in western New Mexico southward into Mexico and is associated with the higher surface moisture content in the region. Another TUTT low has developed near the Antilles north of Cuba, but this one isn&#8217;t as influential to the short term forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"599\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-083346-1024x599.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1292\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-083346-1024x599.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-083346-300x176.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-083346-768x449.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-083346.png 1388w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES19 upper level water vapor images from July 28th 8:20am, College of DuPage<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 250mb, the center of the sub-tropical high pressure ridge is near the tri-state region. The ridge axis extends eastward off the Virginia coast to the west into eastern New Mexico.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"847\" height=\"861\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-084728.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1294\" style=\"width:623px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-084728.png 847w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-084728-295x300.png 295w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-084728-768x781.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 847px) 100vw, 847px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 500mb, the tropical wave is from the Arizona\/New Mexico state line in west central New Mexico southward to the boot heel of New Mexico then south into Mexico. Winds are easterly to the east of the wave at 10 to 20 mph becoming southerly at 20 to 30 mph in western Arizona.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"843\" height=\"857\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-084757.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1295\" style=\"width:618px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-084757.png 843w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-084757-295x300.png 295w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-084757-768x781.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 843px) 100vw, 843px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 700mb, the moisture that accompanies an inverted trough is striking. An inverted trough moves along the southern side of the subtropical high-pressure system. It&#8217;s &#8220;inverted&#8221; as its orientation is flipped 180 degrees from typical low-pressure systems that dip down from the north, and it moves west instead of east.\u00a0The area of moisture associated with the inverted trough will move west over the next few days with thunderstorms developing from the increase in moisture. The battle zone with this moisture will be with the dry air in the low deserts as the inverted trough moves westward. Mixing should result in low 50<strong>\u00b0<\/strong>F dewpoint temperatures. Not quite monsoon level moisture, but enough for storms.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"845\" height=\"863\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-084821.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1296\" style=\"width:619px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-084821.png 845w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-084821-294x300.png 294w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-084821-768x784.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 845px) 100vw, 845px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The forecast soundings for Tucson this afternoon, shown below, have enough convective available potential energy (CAPE about 250 [J\/kg]) to support thunderstorms that will be moving into the area from the east. The thunderstorms will be associated with gusty winds to 45 mph and blowing dust, as downdraft convective available potential energy is forecast above 1200 [J\/kg]. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"581\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-094029-1024x581.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1298\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-094029-1024x581.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-094029-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-094029-768x436.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-094029.png 1403w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z forecast sounding for Tucson for 2:30pm before cloud formation (left) and 4pm at cloud formation (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The storms fizzle out as they try to move out into the desert areas. Most of the precipitation in New Mexico is in the western half of the state. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"564\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1740 \/ 564;\" width=\"1740\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Recording-2025-07-28-094955.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left) and 10-meter windspeed (right) forecast from 1pm to 2am.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The heaviest precipitation seems to be forecast for Cochise County this afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"679\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-095739-1024x679.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1304\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-095739-1024x679.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-095739-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-095739-768x510.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-095739.png 1132w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z 24-hour total accumulated precipitation through to 2am Tuesday morning.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Various model forecasts show an Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) along the Arizona\/New Mexico state line forming in the wake of tonight&#8217;s convection. As it moves northward into central New Mexico, it should enhance convection ahead of it&#8217;s path through that area on Tuesday afternoon. In Arizona, northerly winds behind the MCS will result in fewer storms. The microburst potential is less.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"570\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1734 \/ 570;\" width=\"1734\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Recording-2025-07-28-095350.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left) and 10-meter windspeed (right) forecast for tomorrow morning at 2am to tomorrow evening at 11:30pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On Wednesday, most of the storms are concentrated in eastern Arizona extending into central New Mexico. There is still not enough precipitable water for more than a low grade monsoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"336\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-100040-1024x336.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1306\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-100040-1024x336.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-100040-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-100040-768x252.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-100040-1536x504.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-100040.png 1731w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left) and 10-meter windspeed (right) forecast for Wednesday at 4pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What\u2019s needed is a good gulf surge and the GFS hints at this happening on Thursday with precipitable water above 35mm (about 1.5 inches).\u00a0The ECMWF forecast is similar for the same time. The bad news is that the region drys out by the weekend.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"507\" height=\"750\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-100501.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1307\" style=\"width:430px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-100501.png 507w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-100501-203x300.png 203w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 507px) 100vw, 507px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GFS-UA WRF 00Z precipitable water forecast for Wednesday 5pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Discussion written by Pat Holbrook and Patrick Bunn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yesterday&#8217;s Weather Storms developed in New Mexico along the leading edge of the returning low-level moisture. Biggs Army Airfield north of El Paso received .45 inches of rain and some hail. Visibility was less than a mile and wind gusts to 45 mph, while El Paso International Airport had wind gusts to 49 mph. Some &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1289","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1289","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1289"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1289\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1310,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1289\/revisions\/1310"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1289"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1289"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1289"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}