{"id":1208,"date":"2025-07-24T17:34:20","date_gmt":"2025-07-24T17:34:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=1208"},"modified":"2025-07-25T16:52:04","modified_gmt":"2025-07-25T16:52:04","slug":"hot-and-dry-az-last-storms-for-a-few-days-for-nm-july-24th-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=1208","title":{"rendered":"Hot and dry AZ, last storms for a few days for NM: July 24th, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yesterday&#8217;s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Thunderstorms were over the eastern half of New Mexico with the strongest ones over the mountains of the&nbsp;northeast part of the state. Low dewpoint temperatures are west of an El Paso\/Santa Fe line. Arizona had a few storms in the eastern portion of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"632\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1040 \/ 632;\" width=\"1040\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Recording-2025-07-24-093453.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES19 infrared satellite images from July 23rd 10am to 2:30am last night, College of DuPage<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Dry air has moved into Arizona with dewpoint temperatures in the 30s across most of the low desert (blue numbers in graphic below).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"580\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-093829-1024x580.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1212\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-093829-1024x580.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-093829-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-093829-768x435.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-093829.png 1398w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Surface observations from Arizona and New Mexico at 9:40am this morning, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/wrh\/hazards?&amp;zoom=8&amp;scroll_zoom=false&amp;center=32.656025851099066,-110.76888628244107&amp;boundaries=false,true,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&amp;tab=observation&amp;hazard=true&amp;hazard_type=all&amp;hazard_opacity=80&amp;obs=true&amp;obs_type=weather&amp;elements=temp,wind,gust&amp;temp_filter=-80,130&amp;gust_filter=0,150&amp;rh_filter=0,100&amp;elev_filter=-300,14000&amp;precip_filter=0.01,30&amp;obs_popup=false&amp;obs_density=60&amp;obs_provider=ALL\">NWS<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The weather station on top of the Physics and Atmospheric Sciences building shows how the dewpoint temperature dropped dramatically yesterday<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"972\" height=\"768\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-094310.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1215\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-094310.png 972w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-094310-300x237.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-094310-768x607.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 972px) 100vw, 972px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Current conditions, recent conditions, and an extended forecast for UofA campus are shown <a href=\"https:\/\/weather.arizona.edu\/conditions\/uofa\">here<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) to our south in Mexico has continued to move north and east, and appears to be more of an open wave now. Divergence associated with this TUTT low should aide in convection in eastern New Mexico this afternoon. Another TUTT is moving through the Florida straits north of Cuba. A maritime cold-core low pressure system has been cut off from the polar jet stream and is now off the off the California coast moving eastward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"625\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-094923-1-1024x625.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1218\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-094923-1-1024x625.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-094923-1-300x183.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-094923-1-768x469.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-094923-1.png 1106w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">GOES19 lower level water vapor images from July 24th 9:40am, College of DuPage<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The 250mb forecast below is for 5pm this afternoon, instead of 12pm as is typically shown. The green contours show deep convection in eastern New Mexico associated with the favorable divergence pattern set up by the TUTT to the south, as it shears out and leaves the area. Arizona is under the influence of the cold-core low with strong westerlies.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"732\" height=\"750\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-100254.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1219\" style=\"width:588px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-100254.png 732w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-100254-293x300.png 293w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 732px) 100vw, 732px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>At 500mb, the subtropical high pressure (monsoon ridge) is centered just off the coast of North Carolina, with the ridge axis extending down to south central Texas. The cutoff lows circulation extends across Arizona although temperatures around \u201310<strong>\u00b0<\/strong>C over northern Arizona are not quite as warm as the model initialized temperatures. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"737\" height=\"746\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-100856.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1220\" style=\"width:587px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-100856.png 737w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-100856-296x300.png 296w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 737px) 100vw, 737px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The low-level water vapor imagery (shown above) is in good agreement with the 700mb HRRR-UA WRF 12Z model initialization. The only significant moisture is in eastern New Mexico.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"737\" height=\"751\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-101432.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1221\" style=\"width:599px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-101432.png 737w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-101432-294x300.png 294w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 737px) 100vw, 737px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Forecast radar reflectivity (below left) and 10-meter wind speed (below right) show strong storms forming in the eastern mountains of New Mexico then moving into Texas by late evening. Arizona will remain dry and hot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"564\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1732 \/ 564;\" width=\"1732\" autoplay controls loop muted src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Recording-2025-07-24-101936.mp4\"><\/video><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left) and 10m wind speed (right) forecast from 12pm to 2am tonight.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Even less activity over the region as the dry air remains in place. The few thunderstorms that form over New Mexico will be over and near mountains. Arizona will have a similar dry day to today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"680\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-102234-1024x680.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-102234-1024x680.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-102234-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-102234-768x510.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-102234.png 1110w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity forecast for tomorrow at 3pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Saturday will be another dry and hot day with only a few mountain storms in New Mexico. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"681\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-102522-1024x681.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1226\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-102522-1024x681.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-102522-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-102522-768x511.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-102522.png 1112w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity forecast for Saturday at 5pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The good news is moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is poised to move back into the region on Sunday with an increase in storms over western half of New Mexico. Some storms may eke their way into Cochise County. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"332\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-102637-1024x332.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1227\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-102637-1024x332.png 1024w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-102637-300x97.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-102637-768x249.png 768w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-102637-1536x498.png 1536w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-102637.png 1732w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">HRRR-UA WRF 12Z simulated radar reflectivity (left) and precipitable water (right) forecast for Sunday at 5pm.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>GEFS plume forecasts show the monsoon moisture coming back into Arizona next week&#8230;but which day? Tuesday or Wednesday.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"748\" src=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-102850.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1228\" srcset=\"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-102850.png 975w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-102850-300x230.png 300w, https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-24-102850-768x589.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 975px) 100vw, 975px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov\/users\/meg\/gefs_plumes\/index.html?stationname=KTUS\">plumes <\/a>for Tucson.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Discussion written by Pat Holbrook and Patrick Bunn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yesterday&#8217;s Weather Thunderstorms were over the eastern half of New Mexico with the strongest ones over the mountains of the&nbsp;northeast part of the state. Low dewpoint temperatures are west of an El Paso\/Santa Fe line. Arizona had a few storms in the eastern portion of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Dry air has moved &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1208","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1208","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1208"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1208\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1245,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1208\/revisions\/1245"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1208"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1208"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1208"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}