{"id":1175,"date":"2025-07-23T17:51:22","date_gmt":"2025-07-23T17:51:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=1175"},"modified":"2025-07-24T16:40:21","modified_gmt":"2025-07-24T16:40:21","slug":"down-days-into-next-week-july-23rd-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/discussions.weather.arizona.edu\/?p=1175","title":{"rendered":"Down days into next week: July 23rd, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Yesterday’s Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The comparison between HRRR-UA WRF 15Z forecast 24-hour total precipitation and observations from the multi-radar multi-sensor (MRMS) system is shown below. The model forecast did quite well with the precipitation in the Rincon mountains and Vail area east of Tucson. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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HRRR-UA WRF 15Z 24-hour precipitation accumulation forecast from yesterday (left) versus observed 24-hour precipitation accumulation from MRMS multi-sensor data (right)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

We can also compare this to rain gauge data for yesterday. The Rincon mountains had rainfall totals more than \u00be of an inch with a maximum around 3 inches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Tucson metro area 24-hour accumulated precipitation totals, Rainlog.org<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Benson, Sierra Vista, and Bisbee all got good amounts of precipiation from 0.25″ to 2″. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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24-hour accumulated precipitation totals Santa Cruz and Cochise Counties, Rainlog.org<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Tucson metro had lighter rainfall, generally less than a quarter inch. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Rain gauge 24-hour precipitation totals, Pima County Regional Flood Control District Alert Map<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Some areas in Phoenix received measurable rain, especially in Gilbert with a few reports of a quarter inch or more. The other area of heavy rain was in north central in central New Mexico with the Albuquerque area getting nearly an inch. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

GOES19 infrared satellite images from July 22nd 6am to 2am last night, College of DuPage<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Check out our sky cameras looking north<\/a> and east<\/a> in Tucson; the main action starts from 3pm on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) to our south has moved northward into mainland Mexico. The TUTT in Texas yesterday has also moved north into Kansas. The TUTT in the Atlantic yesterday, is now between Florida and Cuba.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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GOES19 upper level water vapor images from July 23rd 10:00am, College of DuPage<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

At 250mb, the TUTT to our south is moving northward and will be somewhat absorbed by the larger polar-type trough currently off the California coast. But the TUTT will still supply divergence aloft for eastern New Mexico as it moves to the east, south of Douglas tomorrow afternoon. Winds are 45 to 50 knots across Arizona from the south and will be from the southwest tomorrow. <\/p>\n\n\n

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At 500mb, there are toasty warm temperatures at \u20136\u00b0<\/strong>C at both Phoenix and Flagstaff as well as eastern New Mexico, which would suppress any convection getting to that level. The high pressure ridge axis has been pushed well south into central Mexico extending to North Carolina. Winds across Arizona are southerly at 5 to 10 knots but a little stronger along the California border in response to the polar trough off the west coast. <\/p>\n\n\n

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At 700mb, very dry air moves into the state in advance of the west coast trough effectively turning the monsoon into a non-soon by Saturday. This shuts off precipitation in most areas except for far eastern New Mexico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n